3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday (7/2/24)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Dinger Tuesday (7/2/24)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Luis Robert To Hit A Home Run (+320)

Luis Robert was activated from the IL nearly one month ago and hasn't missed a beat since.

Across the last 30 days of play, Robert is generating a 16.1% barrel rate and 46.4% fly-ball rate and is in a good spot to hit one over the fence tonight.

Carlos Carrasco will take the mound for the opposing Cleveland Guardians. He hasn't made improvements since a treacherous 2023 stint with the New York Mets and could be vulnerable against a strong right arm in Robert.

This season, Carrasco has surrendered a .500 SLG, 40.4% fly-ball rate, and 1.80 home runs per nine innings (10th-most in MLB) to right-handed hitters.

Robert, meanwhile, comes in with a .315 ISO and 46.4% fly-ball rate versus northpaws. He could slam one home against Carrasco, and we're getting a good deal by backing him to do just that.

Last season, Robert hit at least one home run in 26.1% of his games. He's seen strikingly similar results this season, hitting at least one long ball in 25.8% of his games.

These +320 odds imply a 23.8% probability, so I love the shake we are getting with an advantageous matchup inbound.

Josh Naylor To Hit A Home Run (+340)

I don't know that there's ever been a time to suggest utilizing a game involving the Chicago White Sox for Dinger Tuesday, but I like a pair of home run props for this game.

Let's turn to Cleveland's side and check out their matchup against Chicago's Chris Flexen.

Flexen has contributed to the White Sox's league-worst 24-62 record. He enters the night with a 5.13 ERA, 4.47 xERA, 4.91 SIERA, and a tame 17.6% K%.

He's been getting lit up by lefties, offering this handedness a .590 SLG, .308 ISO, 52.7% fly-ball rate (fifth-highest in MLB), and a resounding 2.83 home runs per nine innings (most in MLB).

There are few better to take advantage of Flexen's shortcomings than Cleveland's best lefty, Josh Naylor.

Naylor has smashed 20 home runs (seventh-most in MLB) this season, 15 of which have come against righties. He sports a .260 ISO versus right-handed pitchers and has been producing a 16.1% barrel rate, 54.8% hard-hit rate, and .318 ISO across the last two weeks of play.

This matchup is awesome, and it doesn't hurt that Chicago's bullpen is ceding the third-most home runs per nine innings. The value checks out, too. Naylor has hit at least one home run in 23.4% of his games this season while these +340 odds imply a 22.7% probability.

Michael Toglia To Hit A Home Run (+450)

Dallas Keuchel is still kicking -- but barely.

The former Cy Young winner was recently acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers and has made one start for the team, where he was marred with eight hits, five earned runs, and two home runs through just four innings.

He produced a mere 31.3% ground ball rate in that contest and has started only 21 games across the last three seasons. Now, he'll have to make it work at a hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Add in that Milwaukee's bullpen has let up the fifth-most (tied) home runs this season, and things could get fun for the Colorado Rockies tonight.

There are a few ways we could turn here, but ultimately, Michael Toglia's power numbers draw the most intrigue.

Across the last 30 days of play, Toglia is hammering a 47.5% hard-hit rate, 39.0% fly-ball rate, .238 ISO, and 16.9% barrel rate. He's managed a whopping 21.2% barrel rate (eighth-highest in MLB; minimum 40 PA) and .304 ISO in the last two weeks of baseball.

Toglia has shown plenty of pop with a .286 ISO and 37.0% fly-ball rate versus lefties, hitting four home runs in just 42 at-bats against this handedness.

Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar, and Brenton Doyle are other worthy considerations in the batter props market if we're looking to exploit Keuchel. Either way, this Brewers-Rockies showdown, which features a slate-high 11.0 over/under, could be a great way to get in on Dinger Tuesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.