3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Saturday 8/10/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jackson Merrill to Hit a Home Run (+630)

I must say that I'll remember this Roddery Munoz season for our #BombSquad fondly.

The Miami Marlins' righty has coughed up 2.71 homers per nine (HR/9) on the basis of massive 46.5% flyball and 45.1% hard-hit rates allowed. Against left-handed batters, that rate is 3.99 HR/9 allowed with nearly half of the balls in play (49.5%) in the air. In some ways, the San Diego Padres are an ideal matchup for him without a true slugger of a lefty, but Jackson Merrill is likely the closest thing out of the Friars' six hole.

Merrill has crushed right-handers for an 1.044 OPS, .351 ISO, 48.8% flyball rate, and 43.2% hard-hit rate over the past month of play -- a sample that encompasses 65 plate appearances (PAs).

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 0.19 home runs from Merrill in tonight's game, which, if correct, would merit +478 odds for one. He's the best positioned on his club given his contact splits aligned with Munoz's.

Zach Neto to Hit a Home Run (+480)

For a game with a 9.5-run total, oddsmakers don't have much conviction on anyone in the Los Angeles Angels-Washington Nationals matchup to go yard. I'll call my shot with Zach Neto from the visitors.

Neto and the Halos square off with Patrick Corbin today, and Corbin has been a delight for hitters to face for a half decade in Washington. Nonetheless, he's struggled to a 5.82 expected ERA (xERA), 33.0% flyball rate, and 46.4% hard-hit rate allowed in 2024. That's amounted to 1.28 HR/9 allowed for the "sinkerballer".

After he departs, Neto will at least have the benefit of facing a Nats bullpen with the league's ninth-highest xFIP over the past 30 days (4.17), too.

Now turning to our unexpected member of today's squad, the Angels shortstop has clubbed lefties for a 1.414 OPS, .316 ISO, 41.2% flyball rate, and 52.9% hard-hit rate in the past month since returning from the IL, which is admittedly only 21 PAs.

Nonetheless, our projections forecast a game-high 0.21 homers from Neto in this one. If correct, that would justify +428 odds for at least one.

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+320)

We're playing the hits in today's homer props. Behind Munoz and Corbin, Chris Flexen of the Chicago White Sox has been another common target.

It's been a disastrous campaign for the former KBO standout, posting a 4.94 xERA, a tiny 16.5% strikeout rate, and hefty flyball (46.7%) and hard-hit (37.4%) rates allowed. That's led to a rate of 1.66 HR/9 ceded to this point, and behind Flexen lurks the majors' worst bullpen (per a 5.16 xFIP) over the past month of play.

Without much doubt, the Chicago Cubs' best candidate for a dong is Seiya Suzuki -- which is quite funny when he's homered just once in August back on the first of the month. Still, Seiya is the team's top performer in this right-handed split when Flexen has similar splits against both sides. Suzuki has posted a .961 OPS, .250 ISO, 40.7% flyball rate, and 42.9% hard-hit rate against righties in the past 30 days.

This recent drought for a homer might be what's pushing Suzuki's analytical projection from FanDuel Research down (0.20 home runs), but I still want a piece of his contact splits against this tried and true target. He'll knock one over the fence soon with these efforts, and this line is excellent value on FanDuel. Most other domestic books are below +300 at this time.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.