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3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Seahawks at 49ers, Week 18

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3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Seahawks at 49ers, Week 18

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Saturday as the Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Seahawks at 49ers Week 18 Betting Picks

49ers Moneyline (+108)

Moneyline

San Francisco 49ers
Jan 4 1:01am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

I couldn't get behind the 49ers when this game was a pick 'em earlier in the week. But the market has moved enough where they're actually a pretty solid value for me.

When the 49ers' moneyline was -110, their implied win odds were 52.4%. Now that they've lengthened to +108, those odds are 48.1%. My model puts their win odds at 51.6%, so that movement pushed them to a point where they became very bettable.

The recent offensive efficiency is the main catalyst for the model's love. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs this season, Brock Purdy ranks second in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back, trailing only Drake Maye. This will be a much tougher task, but Purdy's numbers are great when you adjust for opponent, as well.

I've also got at least some concern for the Seahawks' offense. The 49ers -- thanks to some Robert Saleh witchcraft -- generated a pass rush against the Chicago Bears last week, and that offensive line is much better than the Seahawks' with left tackle Charles Cross sidelined again. Even if this defense lacks talent, they can still create some chaos, which is scary for Sam Darnold and company.

The Seahawks are the better team. I agree with that. I just don't think the gap -- as things stand -- is big enough for the Seahawks to be as heavily favored as they are with this game in Santa Clara. Give me the 49ers at +108.

Rashid Shaheed Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (+120)

Rashid Shaheed - Rushing Yds

Rashid Shaheed Over
Jan 4 1:01am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Rashid Shaheed quickly cleared concussion protcol this week, logging full practices on both Wednesday and Thursday. That's enough for him to be part of the gameplan, and the Seahawks have shown that gameplan often involves getting him the ball in creative ways.

In Shaheed's eight games with the team, he has averaged 0.9 rush attempts for 8.0 yards per game, going over 1.5 yards in 5 of 8 games. One of the unders came last week when he left early with the concussion.

These runs have been pretty successful, too, upping the incentive to keep them in the rotation. Against an offense that may not punt much, you have to find other ways to get Shaheed's dynamic abilities in the mix. This is one of those options.

There's a chance Shaheed doesn't get any attempts, in which case I'll feel like a real dummy. He could also easily lose yardage. But Seattle's plan to date with him has made this look like a value, so I'm willing to bet it despite the potential for egg on my face.

Christian McCaffrey Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Christian McCaffrey - Receiving Yds

Christian McCaffrey Under
Jan 4 1:01am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Assuming that both George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall play, it'll be just the sixth time all season that duo and Jauan Jennings have played together. When they've had those weapons healthy, Christian McCaffrey has played a less prominent role in the passing game.

For the season, the 49ers have had three games where either one or zero of that trio were active. That leaves eight games where they had two of the three. McCaffrey's usage has had a tight relationship with their availability.

Kittle, Jennings, and Pearsall Available
Games
McCaffrey Target Share
Receiving YPG
0 or 1326.0%75.7
2824.1%57.8
3519.7%40.2

This makes anecdotal sense. McCaffrey's great in the passing game, but those players provide more downfield juice and, thus, more big-play ability. You want to give them the rock when you can. It's just harder to do so when they're all banged up.

There's risk here because the Seahawks do let up increased passing-game production to running backs. Plus, he's Christian freakin' McCaffrey, so he can turn minimal volume into an over. I just have a hard time ignoring the under given the toys the 49ers have to play with.


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Which NFL bets stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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