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3 Best NBA Playoffs Bets and Player Props for Monday 5/12/25

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3 Best NBA Playoffs Bets and Player Props for Monday 5/12/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Celtics Over 107.5 Points (-118)

The Boston Celtics offense finally woke up in Game 3 by recording 115 points paired with a 48.2% field goal percentage (FG%) while draining 20 of 40 three-point attempts (50.0%). In the previous two games, Boston shot a combined 35.6% from the field and 25.0% from beyond the arc. It felt like only a matter of time before the Celtics offense finally showed signs of life.

For Game 4, Boston's team total has taken a notable leap to 107.5, but it's still not enough to stray me away from the over. During the regular season, the Celtics had the second-best offensive rating along with the sixth-highest effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Game 3's scoring output doesn't feel like a one-off.

Away Team Total Points

May 12 11:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

While making 50.0% of its three-point attempts is unlikely to keep up, efficient shooting should still be in the cards. Players like Jayson Tatum were suffering brutal droughts in the first two games, for Tatum shot a combined 5 of 20 (25.0%) compared to his regular-season mark of 34.3%. Making 5 of 9 threes (55.6%) in Game 3 proved Tatum isn't going to sit in the backseat for an entire series.

Ultimately, the first two games felt like bad luck for Boston's efficiency. The Celtics are still getting the shots they want by launching 46.7 three-point attempts per game in this series, and that's with a slowed pace in the postseason. This is still nearly on par with Boston's 47.2 per-game average (the highest) from the regular season. If the Celtics are shooting even remotely efficiently, the 107.5 team total still feels low enough for the over. DRatings' game projections have Boston reaching 108.3 points tonight.

Celtics -6.5 (-110)

With the offense finally performing in Game 3, I believe the Celtics could roll for the remainder of this series. While some of this comes down to a gut feeling, we do have some numbers to back it up, as well.

We've already mentioned Boston's ability to get three-point looks in this series, likely leading to scoring success. On the defensive end, the Celtics currently have the second-best defensive rating in the playoffs. Plus, New York has the lowest offensive rating among active teams. The Knicks want to make these games ugly and low-scoring, but if Boston is succeeding on offense, these matchups could get ugly.

Spread Betting

May 12 11:30pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

After making 17 of 37 threes (45.9%) in Game 1, New York has since made 14 of 56 triples (25.0%). While the efficiency is likely bound to come up, the Knicks attempting only 28.0 three-point shots per game is far more realistic than Game 1's volume considering the Knicks logged the third-fewest shots per game in the regular season.

According to Dunks & Threes, New York recorded the fourth-highest shot distribution around the rim in the regular season. The Knicks have averaged only 42.0 points in the paint per game in this series, which is a notable drop compared to their 51.8 mark from the regular season (sixth-highest). Boston's defense checks out, as well, for it had the seventh-lowest shot distribution around the rim allowed and the third-fewest points in the paint allowed per contest in the regular season.

The Knicks have posted only 94.7 points per game (PPG) in regulation through three games. With scoring struggles likely continuing paired with the Celtics' newfound success on offense, give me the road favorite to dominate once again.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors

Warriors Under 97.5 Points (-118)

Stephen Curry (hamstring) will miss his third consecutive game tonight, and the Minnesota Timberwolves have gone 2-0 outright and against the spread (ATS) when Curry is out. The Golden State Warriors are averaging 96.3 PPG in this series, which drops to 95.0 without Curry in the lineup. With that said, what should we expect for Game 4?

Home Team Total Points

Under
May 13 2:00am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Minnesota sports the third-best defensive rating of the postseason while playing at the second-slowest pace among active teams. Golden State also has the third-slowest pace among active teams. A quick pace preventing a low total isn't much of a worry. With the two combining for an average total of 198.7 PPG through three games, tonight's 200.5 total seems more than reasonable.

Focusing on the Warriors' offense, we mentioned their 95.0 PPG in their two games without Curry. After making 18 of 42 threes (42.9%) in Game 1, Golden State shot only 27.5 three-point attempts per contest over its last two. The T-Wolves gave up the seventh-lowest three-point shot distribution in the regular season, which has flexed its muscles since the Curry injury.

This has shifted some of Golden State's focus to attacking the rim. Jimmy Butler now figures to be the team's leading scorer after recording 25.0 PPG in the last two, and he is shooting 52.3% of his field goal attempts within 10 feet of the basket in the postseason. This is another check for Minnesota's defense, which allowed the ninth-fewest points in the paint per game in the regular season. Additionally, the Warriors are posting only 39.3 points in the paint per game in this series (fifth-fewest with 44.0 in the regular season).

The Timberwolves' defense should have its way once again with Curry out of the lineup.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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