3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 4/8/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Today's Best Home Run Props

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Adolis Garcia to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Tonight's frigid weather at Wrigley is suboptimal, but Adolis Garcia is swinging it too well in an ideal matchup for these odds.

Garcia's bounce-back campaign is fully underway, amassing an .831 OPS, .333 ISO, 52.2% hard-hit rate, and 69.6% (!) flyball rate against right-handed pitching so far. His contact numbers are some of the best in the sport in this split -- and primed to produce devastating consequences moving forward.

At the very least, a 10 mph crosswind isn't devastating for bombs when Chicago Cubs hurler Jameson Taillon will surrender them. He's posted a flyball and hard-hit rate north of 40.0% -- and at least 1.20 HR/9 -- in consecutive seasons. He sits at or below those marks just 10.1 innings into 2025.

Chicago's bullpen also has the third-worst reliever xFIP in baseball so far (5.19).

FanDuel Research's MLB home run projections expect 0.24 home runs for the Texas Rangers' fifth hitter. We'd have expected these odds closer to +369.

Tyler O'Neill to Hit a Home Run (+370)

It seems we'll get some offense out of a 9.0-run total in Phoenix. Struggling Arizona Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly is one reason why.

Kelly's been chased early from consecutive starts with extremely high flyball (52.8%), hard-hit (44.4%), and barrel (19.8%) rates allowed to begin the year. It's all wrapped into 3.00 HR/9 in MLB's fifth-best park for hitters. Coming off a year where he posted 1.34 HR/9 allowed, it might not totally be a fluke.

Early into his Baltimore Orioles tenure, Tyler O'Neill leads this game's homer market for good reason. He's produced an 1.184 OPS, .348 ISO, 50.0% hard-hit rate, and 59.1% flyball rate in 27 plate appearances (PAs) against Kelly's split so far.

At the exact same median projection for bombs (0.24) as Garcia, Baltimore's six-hole hitter is also showing value for a round-tripper.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+470)

The A's are giving teams a dose of Pacific Coast League (PCL) action.

Sutter Health Park is Triple-A Sacramento's stadium, and the PCL is notorious for offensive slugfest. The park has produced 15 home runs in just four games. It's insane some of the San Diego Padres' brightest stars aren't shorter for a bomb -- even if Jeffrey Springs is a solid hurler.

Springs still profiles to cough up his share of long balls, per 42.4% flyball and 45.2% hard-hit rates allowed last season. He surrendered 3.00 HR/9 in his first start at Sutter.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hit a moonshot last night, and I'm buying the dip on his .000 ISO against southpaws to begin 2025. He's primed to break out with a decent hard-hit rate (40.0%) finding gloves.

Tatis' projection (0.22) is a bit lower than our other two sluggers, but he's still showing value at these odds. That forecast would still merit around +406 odds if correct.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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