3 Best College Football Playoff Bets and Player Props for Oregon vs. Texas Tech

Of the four teams to get a bye in the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are the only one that enters this week's quarterfinals as an underdog.

The Oregon Ducks are currently 2.5-point favorites against Texas Tech in FanDuel Sportsbook's college football betting odds with Texas Tech's moneyline at +114.

Is Texas Tech being overlooked? And where else can we find value?

Let's dig into that now and discuss my favorite bets for Thursday's Orange Bowl.

All college football betting odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Oregon vs. Texas Tech CFP Betting Picks

Texas Tech Moneyline (+114)

In a neutral situation, Oregon's the better team, and I do think you can justify having them as slight favorites. Having Texas Tech's implied win odds at 46.7% just feels a smidge too low.

Thanks to the bye, Texas Tech will enter with the rest advantage. Despite how last year's playoff games went, I'm always going to view that as a positive with how physical of a game football is. That's worth something here.

Additionally, when we looked at a blend of various college football power rating numbers entering the playoff, they had Oregon only a point ahead of Texas Tech on a neutral site. Oregon played well against James Madison, but that showing likely shouldn't have shifted our opinion of them much.

Once you combine that with Texas Tech being the fresher team, I think this game should be closer to a pick 'em than how it's currently being booked. There's enough in their favor for me to back them outright at the current odds.

Dante Moore Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-114)

With our views on the Texas Tech moneyline, we are saying we think there's a chance that Dante Moore winds up in a negative game script. That could juice up his passing yardage, making this a little risky. The efficiency may help us enough there to make both bets quality looks.

Despite playing in the Big 10, Moore didn't face the toughest schedule this year. Texas Tech will be just the fourth top-25 team by defensive SP+ on Oregon's schedule. He went under 228.5 passing yards in two of them (186 against Indiana and 112 against Iowa).

Texas Tech ranks fifth in EPA per pass allowed, according to GameOnPaper, and they have the best early-down defense in the country. If most of Moore's volume is coming in obvious passing situations, it's going to be tough for him to rack up yards.

These two bets have overlap, and there's a scenario where Moore shreds and leads Oregon to victory. We could absolutely lose both bets, and that risk should be considered. Individually, though, both of these bets seem to grade out well, and I think they're worthwhile thoughts as you build a betslip.

J'Koby Williams Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

A team's actions can often tell us a lot about how they view a player.

Recently, Texas Tech has had J'Koby Williams returning punts after he returned kicks earlier in the year. That tells me they want the ball in his hands, and for good reason. That plays well for a market like this.

The return angle plays well for a receiving prop because both involve getting the player the ball in space. They've done that plenty with Williams in the passing game as he has 30 receptions for 371 yards on the season. He has logged multiple receptions in five of the past six games.

Against such a tough foe, they're going to need to get creative to generate yardage. That's unlikely to come via the ground game, given their general struggles there this year. Thus, getting Williams the ball out of the backfield would make sense, and they've signaled to us this is a plan they're likely to deploy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.