3 Best Bets for Tuesday's Crosstown Classic Matchup: Cubs at White Sox (7/25/23)

The Windy City rivalry renews for its 139th rendition tonight as the Chicago Cubs (48-51) make the short trip south to take on the Chicago White Sox (41-60). First pitch is slated for 8:10 pm (EST) at Guaranteed Rate Field.

With just 11 miles separating Chicago's two baseball teams, summer bragging rights are on the line ahead of the Chicago Bears' football season. Neither team has had quite the season they'd hoped for coming into the year, and both clubs are running out of time to make a push for the division. Coming into today, the Cubs sat 7.0 games back in the NL Central, while the White Sox were 12.5 games back in the AL Central.

While the south-siders hold a 70-64 advantage all-time and have taken the Crosstown Cup two years running, the north-siders have been the more successful team in 2023.

A pair of righties face off tonight with Kyle Hendricks (3-4) taking the mound for the Cubs and Michael Kopech (4-8) toeing the rubber for the Sox.

Let's dive into some of the best bets to keep an eye on ahead of the series opener. As always, MLB odds can be found via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Cubs Over 4.5 Runs (-115)

The north-siders have trotted out the best offense in baseball since the All-Star break. Over their last 10 outings, the Cubs lead the league with 6.9 runs per game. They've been incredibly efficient at putting runners on base with a league-leading .370 wOBA over that span.

With solid walk and strikeout rates, the Cubs match up well with opposing starter Michael Kopech, who notoriously struggles with command. They've been strong against righties all season, ranking 14th in wOBA (.324).

If the Cubs knock Kopech out of the game quickly, they could feast against one of the worst bullpens in baseball. White Sox relievers have the fifth-worst ERA (4.66) in the league -- thanks in large part to allowing the eighth-highest hard-hit rate (39.7%).

Don't expect the Cubs' offense to cool off in a ballpark that observes 11% more home runs than the average venue, per Statcast.

Bellinger to Record an RBI (+125)

I'm all over the Cubs' offense tonight, so someone has to drive in all those runs. Who better than Cody Bellinger, arguably the hottest hitter in baseball this month.

Bellinger has video game-like numbers in July. Over his past 19 games, the 2019 MVP leads the Majors with a .452 average, ranks second with 7 homers, and sits third with 22 RBI. He owns a measly 8.8% strikeout rate over that span, so his recent tendency to put the ball in play has given him a ton of chances to drive in runs.

Bellinger is coming off a monster weekend that saw him drive in nine runs in three games against the St. Louis Cardinals. Considering he owns a .353 wOBA against righties this season, Bellinger could very well continue his torrid stretch tonight.

Morel to Record 2+ Total Bases (+ 125)

Sticking with the Cubs, we're closing out tonight's best bets with young slugger Christopher Morel.

Morel is one of the streakiest hitters in the game, but when he's hot, he's hot. The 24-year-old can fall victim to strikeouts but absolutely crushes the ball when he gets quality contact. He does that far more often than your average hitter, ranking in the 89th percentile in barrel rate.

Morel excels in righty matchups, against whom he owns a .388 wOBA and .278 ISO. He's cranked out 12 of his 15 home runs against righties, with 11 of those flying over the left field wall. That's notable tonight given that Guaranteed Rate's 330-foot left field is the shortest part of the fence.

The biggest reason I like him tonight is the matchup. In addition to being a righty, Kopech's two most-used pitches are the fastball (62.7%) and slider (25.9%) -- both of which Morel crushes. He has an astronomical 1.071 slugging percentage against sliders this season, while his 64% hard-hit rate against fastballs is nothing to scoff at.

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