2 Best Bets for the US Open Men's Semifinals on Day 13

The US Open is into the men's semifinals, and FanDuel Sportsbook has US Open odds for all the matches in the coming days.

Friday's singles matches will begin this afternoon. Let's see which bets are showing value.

US Open Betting Picks for Day 13

Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz -5.5 Games (-104)

Novak Djokovic is perhaps the only player to give Carlos Alcaraz any serious trouble outside of Jannik Sinner -- and even Sinner is just 5-9 versus Alcaraz -- which sets up an intriguing semifinal this afternoon.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head 5-3 and has actually won four of their last five meetings. Novak is also 3-0 versus Carlos on hard courts, and the last win was earlier this year at the 2025 Australian Open.

While that should give Djokovic a mental edge, he's looked vulnerable physically throughout this US Open. His matches have been littered with medical timeouts, and he's often looked genuinely gassed after long rallies. We've seen Djokovic fizzle toward the end of majors lately, and it's possible he didn't even come into this one in peak form after playing zero warm-up tournaments.

He's had enough to get by everyone thus far, but that's far less likely to be the case against Alcaraz, who's been completely locked in. Alcaraz hasn't lost a set yet, and he's been broken just once.

On the other hand, Djokovic has already dropped three sets in this tournament, one coming against an opponent outside the top 100 (Zachary Svajda) and the others coming against a pair of players who were a combined 0-16 against him (Taylor Fritz and Cameron Norrie).

Time continues to work against Djokovic, and I'm just not sure this version of him will have what it takes to hurt Alcaraz. Carlos almost certainly wants to get revenge after Djokovic deprived him of a gold medal at last year's Olympics, too.

Tennis Abstract's model gives Alcaraz a healthy edge (76.2% win probability), and despite their history, the Spaniard should be able to flip the script on his rival and get a convincing victory.

Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

Sinner -8.5 Games (+132)

I normally wouldn't touch a spread this big, but Sinner has been absolutely demolishing his opponents, and this is one of the only ways to back him in any fashion at plus odds.

Across his five matches, Sinner has won by 14, 11, 6, 15, and 11 games. The one time he didn't cover was when he dropped a set to Denis Shapovalov -- his only slip up in what's otherwise been masterclass after masterclass. Over his 16 sets, the Italian has won by four or more games in 10 of them.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is a surprise semifinalist after struggling to make deep runs in majors the past few years. He's had to really earn it to make these semis, too, as these past two weeks have hardly been straightforward, and his last three matches all came against opponents ranked inside the top 15 (Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur).

Out of Auger-Aliassime's five matches, four featured at least one tiebreak, and two of his last three have gone four sets. His quarterfinal encounter with de Minaur exceeded four hours, whereas Sinner's last two rounds have combined for just three hours and 21 minutes. That last bit is even more scary when we consider Sinner's last two matches came against Alexander Bublik, one of the hottest players on tour, and Lorenzo Musetti, the world No. 10.

FAA actually leads the head-to-head 2-1, but his two victories came in 2022. Their third meeting was just a few weeks back in Cincinnati, and Sinner blew the doors off Auger-Aliassime 6-0, 6-2.

Unfortunately for Felix, it's likely a similar fate awaits him on Friday night. Expect another dominant performance from Sinner, and in doing so, he should cover this spread en route to another Grand Slam final.

Tennis Abstract also predicts a lopsided affair, giving Sinner a 93.4% win probability.

You can also check out our 2025 US Open men's bracket and women's bracket, both available as free printable downloads at FanDuel Research.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.