Cover Photo: Brian D. Kersey/Getty Images
The NFL season starts in just one more day, which means it's your last chance to make any season-long prop bets (at least with the current odds).
One of the more fun prop bets revolves around the quarterback position. While we value leadership and wins for quarterbacks, you also have to be able to put the ball in the end zone. These quarterbacks will look to be the best at that in 2018.
Odds on Most Touchdowns by a QB in 2018-19 #NFL Reg. Season (@paddypower)— TheDuel (@TheDuelSports) September 5, 2018
Aaron Rodgers (6/1)
Tom Brady (9/1)
Ben Roethlisberger (10/1)
Matthew Stafford (10/1)
Drew Brees (12/1)
Carson Wentz (12/1)
Philip Rivers (12/1)
Matt Ryan (14/1)
Kirk Cousins (14/1)
Deshaun Watson (16/1)
The fun thing about these odds is Matthew Stafford definitely isn't a top-five quarterback in the NFL, but this seems about right for him when it comes to pure statistics. Of course, the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, deserve to be the favorites.
Brady has led the league in touchdowns four times in his career, with his last time being in 2015. Rodgers has only done it once, in 2016. Elsewhere on the list, Philip Rivers led the NFL in 2008 in a tie with Drew Brees. Brees has led the league four times, taking the crown almost every year from 2008-2012, losing out on 2010 to Brady.
So the safest picks are easily Rodgers and Brady, but moving down, Roethlisberger would be intriguing if he had longer odds, as would Stafford. Both quarterbacks are capable, but if you're going to take 10/1 odds, you might as well take Brady at 9/1. Brees is the safest play you're going to get at 12/1. He may not be at his peak anymore, but he can still throw plenty of touchdowns.
Finally, Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson are very intriguing picks. Cousins has Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen, while Watson has DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Both of those quarterbacks are going to be connecting for a lot of touchdowns. Watson is returning from injury, so expecting 40 touchdowns in his first full year is a bit much, but Cousins has thrown 29 touchdowns in a season with much less at receiver.
This, of course, is all good until Tom Brady throws 50 touchdowns to a bunch of 5-foot-10 receivers you've never heard of.
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Ian McCafferty is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian McCafferty also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username itmccaff. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.