WNBA Finals Preview: Best Bets and Predictions for Aces vs. Mercury

It's been a wild WNBA season, and a Finals matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury reflects that.

At the start of August, the Aces were 14-14 and fresh off a monumental 53-point loss to the Lynx. Just two months and a 17-game winning streak later, A'ja Wilson and company are four wins away from a championship.

The Mercury lost four of their five starters in the offseason, including franchise cornerstones Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner. A new-look Phoenix group exceeded expectations and then some, and they now have a chance to win the team's first championship in over a decade.

What should we expect from a WNBA Finals series between the Aces and Mercury? Let's break down this matchup before highlighting a few series bets.

Aces vs. Mercury WNBA Finals Preview

Las Vegas and Phoenix finished the regular season with very similar marks. The Aces held a +3.9 net rating, 50.6% effective field goal percentage, and 16.5% turnover percentage while the Mercury showed a +3.2 net rating, 50.2% effective field goal percentage, and 16.9% turnover percentage.

Of course, the Aces' success came in one huge chunk toward the end of the year, whereas the Mercury were a more consistent bunch. Both sides heavily lean on their star, as Wilson (22.0) and Alyssa Thomas (19.7) rank first and second in Player Impact Estimate.

Phoenix is as battle-tested as can be up until this point after getting past the Liberty and Lynx in the first two rounds. The Aces had a softer path, taking on the Storm and a banged-up Fever team.

Recently, offense has been king in the WNBA playoffs. Five of the last six teams to raise a banner led the league in offensive rating. You can't beat shotmaking, and the Aces have not only paced the league in offensive efficiency since August, but they also tout a magnificent 53.9% eFG% this postseason.

This series should prove much tougher, however, as the Mercury hold a playoff-best 92.2 defensive rating. Phoenix held opponents to the third-fewest points off turnovers per possession (0.175) in the regular season, and they're limiting teams to 0.148 points per possession in the split this postseason. Vegas has been living off turnovers these playoffs, averaging 19.1 points per game and a thunderous 0.239 points per possession in the split.

Jackie Young has been in top form throughout the playoffs, averaging 20.5 points on remarkable 54.1-38.1-93.8 shooting splits. The Aces' guard play as a whole is what makes or breaks them. How will things shake out against a daunting Phoenix defense?

WNBA Finals Betting Picks

Series Total Games: 7 Games (+180)

The Aces have -126 odds to win the WNBA Finals while the Mercury are slight underdogs at +108.

By now, we've grown to expect the best from Wilson and Thomas night in and night out. Each side's supporting cast could end up deciding a given game, and I like how that volatility could translate to a long series.

For Phoenix, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper are each capable of an MVP-type performance. Sabally averaged 14.3 points on disastrous 16 for 53 shooting across the Mercury's first four playoff games but went on to net 22.7 points on 10 for 22 shooting from distance in the last three games.

Both teams are elite at home. The Mercury showed a +8.6 net rating at home compared to a -2.0 rating on the road this season while the Aces had a +7.5 net rating at home compared to a +0.5 rating on the road. These groups have gone a combined 7-2 at home this postseason.

In what seems to be a near evenly-matched series with Vegas getting a slight edge thanks to home-court advantage, I want to bet on the Finals to go the distance at +180 odds.

Series Most Total Made Threes: Jackie Young (+410)

I think we're getting a great deal on Jackie Young to lead the Finals in made threes at +410 odds.

Sami Whitcomb (2.0 3PM), Young (1.8), and Sabally (1.7) are the only players in this series who averaged more than 1.5 threes per game in the regular season. Whitcomb (+460) has the third-shortest odds in this market, though, since she comes off the bench and has played just 24.7 minutes per game these playoffs.

Young (35.0) and Sabally (33.9) have played similar minutes this postseason. Young shot 5.1 threes per game in the regular season on a 35.9% clip while Sabally shot 5.3 threes on a 32.1% clip. Young's a career 37.8% three-point shooter, and she's up to a 40.8% mark in her postseason career. Sabally, meanwhile, is due for regression after being red-hot from downtown across her last three games.

Add in home-court advantage, and I do not think Young's odds in this market should be longer than Sabally's (+135) -- at least by this much. Young averaged 2.0 made threes at home in the regular season and is up to 2.4 made threes in the split these playoffs. She's my pick to pace the Finals in threes.

You can also download our free 2025 WNBA playoffs printable bracket to follow along all postseason.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.