WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 7/10/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 7/10/24

The WNBA season is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's 40-game season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun

Over 156.5 (-114)

The New York Liberty (17-4) and the Connecticut Sun (17-4) will clash on Wednesday afternoon. New York is favored by 2.0 points and the victor of this game will claim the sole spot atop the WNBA standings.

I'll sit back and watch what should be an awesome matchup and instead target the over.

New York is shooting a whopping 27.5 threes per game (most). To put this in perspective, nearly half of the teams in the WNBA (5) shoot 17.7 threes or fewer per game. We can rely on the Liberty to up the score with threes, and it doesn't hurt that three of their players rank in the top 15 of three-point percentage, and that's not even including Sabrina Ionescu.

This 156.5-point game total is super low for New York, one that they've surpassed in 16 out of 21 games this season.

After all, Connecticut is on the other side, a team that has the second-best defense and plays at the slowest pace in the league.

Typically, I'm not interested in targeting an over when the game involves a team that plays at a super slow pace, but the Sun aren't super restricting against powerhouse offenses. This season they let up 82 points to New York and 85 points to Las Vegas, the two best offenses in the league.

New York's defense isn't too limiting, so the Sun should keep up their end of the scoring bargain. This game could get pretty scrappy, and an 11:00 AM EST start time could give way to a more lax defense on both sides. I'll side with New York's three-point shooters and back the over.

Brionna Jones Over 17.5 Pts + Reb (-102)

Brionna Jones is averaging 17.7 combined points and rebounds (PR) and is usually in a good spot to put up big numbers when Connecticut has a worthy foe at hand.

The Sun have played bully ball against inferior teams, going 15-1 against WNBA teams that rank outside the top 5 of standings. W teams don't always yank their starters when the game gets out of hand, but Connecticut sure does.

Jones is averaging 27.6 minutes against teams that fare in the top half of net rating but just 24.5 minutes against the bottom-ranked teams.

She's averaging 20.3 PR and exceeded 17.5 PR in five out of seven games (missing by the hook once) in that split against the top half teams.

New York, the second-ranked team in net rating, should result in great usage for Jones. This is also a pace-up game for Jones and the Sun, so I like the over on this prop.

Washington Mystics at Indiana Fever

Mystics +5.5 (-110)

The Washington Mystics (5-17) have never been as bad as their record may indicate. When they head into a matchup against a trending Indiana Fever (9-13) group on Wednesday afternoon, I expect them to keep it close.

On the season, the Mystics own a -5.5 net rating (8th) while the Fever fall behind with a -8.5 net rating (11th). However, Indiana has been piecing it together as of late, going 8-5 since the start of June and receiving big performances from both Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston.

But even once we check out net ratings since the start of June, Washington (-1.9 net rating) still has Indiana (-3.6 net rating) beat.

Washington's tough-to-look-at record is by virtue of being hammered with 11 games against the top 5 teams in the league. The top teams in the WNBA really separate themself from the rest of the league, and the Mystics have gone 0-11 when facing those groups.

It's been a different story for Washington outside of this split. When facing the rest of the league, they possess a 5-6 record and are losing games by an average of just 4.6 points. Even more encouraging -- the Mystics own a +31 point differential against these other seven teams and have won five of their last six games in this split.

Now, Indiana has also been rolling and will get a bump playing at home in front of the Clark fanatics. They also tout a shiny 8-2 record sans contests against the top 5 teams in the league.

With this in mind, I'm not particularly interested in backing Washington's moneyline, but I still think they can keep the game within five.

The Mystics force the third-most turnovers in the league. Indiana surrenders the most fastbreak points and the fourth-most points off of turnovers, so this is a clear spot where Washington can capitalize.

Washington's offense is fairly uninspiring, but an opposing poor defense has proven to mask this. They've played six games against the bottom-four defenses. In this split, they kept every game within seven points and all but one game within three points. Indiana has second-worst defense in the W.

This season, the Mystics are 13-6-1 against the spread.

Atlanta Dream at Chicago Sky

Sky -6.0 (-112)

The Atlanta Dream (7-13) have lost seven of their last eight games since their star guard Rhyne Howard was sidelined with an ankle injury.

They struggle with an unappealing -11.4 net rating (second-worst) in this span and were defeated by at least six points in all but one of those seven aforementioned losses. Atlanta's average margin of loss in this split stands at 10.7 points. An away matchup against the Chicago Sky (8-12) might not bode well.

The Sky come in with a middle-of-the-road -2.3 net rating (6th). Chennedy Carter has been a total bucket, averaging 21.9 points across her last eight games and shooting the ball at an efficient 53.1% clip this season, which is the sixth-highest in the league and the highest among all guards. To put it in perspective, the second-best guard in this regard (Jackie Young; Las Vegas Aces) is shooting at a 44.4% clip.

Carter has been one of the most lethal scorers in the league, and her ability to get to the hoop for high-percentage shots could allow her to sustain that awesome FG%. I don't think the Dream, who lost their best defender in Howard, will have an answer for Carter.

I've yet to even mention Angel Reese (14.1 points and 11.9 rebounds per game), who is making an astounding Rookie of the Year case (+350 odds). Her offensive rebounding skills have helped Chicago score the fourth-most second-chance points and the most paint points.

Carter and Reese should be able to do their thing against a lackluster Atlanta defense. Add in a clear path for scoring off of turnovers, and Chicago could overpower Atlanta in this one. The Dream have surrendered 19.9 points off of turnovers (most) since Howard has been out. Losing your lead ball handler can be brutal.

Tina Charles is always solid and Allisha Gray has stepped up offensively in the absence of Howard, but Chicago comes in with the fifth-best defense and cede the third-fewest threes per game

Last week, Chicago notched an 85-77 road victory against Atlanta despite getting outdone on the boards (including offensive boards), a pretty rare occurrence for the Sky. I'd expect a similar game outcome with Reese, Carter, and company on their home floor.

Chennedy Carter To Score 20+ Points (+100)

Carter earned a spot in Chicago's starting lineup a few weeks ago and has been averaging 21.9 points across the eight games since.

She's scored at least 18 points in all but one of these games and reached 20-plus points in five out of eight games.

Carter has played at least 34 minutes in four of her last five games and has been given the total go-ahead by Chicago, averaging a towering 23.0 FGA across her last two games. For context, the league leader (Arike Ogunbowale) averages 20.6 FGA.

We could see Carter consistently put up 20-plus points for the duration of the season. She doesn't shoot threes, taking just 10 shots from long range through 20 games, so her scoring isn't as dependent on a good shooting night. Rather, Carter is a monster at getting to the bucket for a layup, and Atlanta's poor defense might not be able to stop her on Wednesday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.