Will the Reds Produce Another Winning Season?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
Will the Reds Produce Another Winning Season?

Following a dreadful 2022 season with a 62-100 record, the Cincinnati Reds took a major step forward in their rebuilt last season, finishing with an 82-80 record. It was the youth movement that led that way as Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and Andrew Abbott all shined throughout the season.

However, the Reds still fell short of the playoffs and are chasing their first postseason berth since 2020. Cincinnati made few moves in the offseason and are still leaning on their young roster. Will it be enough for the Reds to have another winning season and possibly improve from last year? FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB win totals are suggesting that the Reds could be in store for a similar finish to the 2023 season.

What is the Reds win total set at for 2024, per the MLB win totals at FanDuel Sportsbook?

The Cincinnati Reds' win total is listed at 81.5.

Here's what to expect from Cincinnati in the upcoming season. Which side could be the best bet?

All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published. nERD via numberFire. Projections via FanGraphs.

Cincinnati Reds Win Total Odds

Cincinnati Reds Over/Under 81.5 Wins

  • Over: -120
  • Under: -102

Why the Reds Could Win Over 81.5 Games (-120)

Siding with the over for the Reds' win total would pretty much hinge on their youth movement. McLain, De La Cruz, Steer, and Abbott all played major roles on the time last season, and they could improve in 2024 as they all enter their second season.

De La Cruz's progress is the big one to watch. He has sky-high potential but dealt with some brutal cold stretches in his rookie campaign, leading to a .235 batting average while ranking in the bottom 24% of Savant's chase rate. Elly's game could come a long way if he improves his plate discipline; this could unlock his path to stardom. According to FanGraph' Depth Chart projections, De La Cruz is projected to have a .244 batting average, .308 on-base percentage (OBP), and .439 slugging percentage. Every mark would be an improvement, contributing to the over for Cincinnati.

We know that the Reds are capable of going on some hot streaks thanks to their batting order. They finished with the ninth-most runs per game last season and are projected to have the seventh-most runs per game in 2024.

Pitching remains the clear concern, for they allowed the eighth-most runs per game in 2023. There is reason to think that the bullpen could improve this year.

Abbott could find more consistency, and Rhett Lowder and Connor Phillips are among the Reds' top-four prospects that could carve out roles in the starting rotation.Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are entering the season healthy after dealing with various injuries last season; both players were at the top of the rotation in 2023.

Cincy also made a notable edition to the starting rotation by signing Frankie Montas, who will be the Reds' Opening Day starter. Montas made only one appearance last season due to injury but posted ERAs of 4.05 of better in the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Cincinnati also added a solid third baseman in Jeimer Candelario, who had a .251 batting average and .336 OBP last season.

As long as the Reds' youth continues to move in the right direction, this team should keep improving. There's also enough reason to believe that the starting rotation will improve. I like the over, which could simply require a repeat performance of last season with 82 wins.

Why the Reds Could Win Under 81.5 Games (-102)

There still some strong supporting points for the under, which provides a more intriguing line at -102. First off, we still can't ignore the pitching. Lodolo appeared in only seven games last season with a 6.29 ERA, Greene continues to be streaky, Abbott logged a 6.43 ERA over his final seven starts last season, and Montas could be rusty after missing most of the 2023 season with a shoulder injury.

I cannot overlook the uncertainty of this starting rotation. There's a lot of unreliable youth here as the Reds lack a surefire, consistent starter.

Going hand in hand with the pitching, there could be some concerns about second-year slumps for some of Cincinnati's most important players. The Reds' ridiculous production from their rookies last season is mostly unheard of. Some youngsters could begin to show their true colors with a decline in play.

FanGraphs is somewhat in line with this prediction. After posting a .290 batting average, McLain is projected a .253 batting average for 2024. Steer batted .271 last season and is forecasted for .258 in the upcoming season.

Cincinnati's top prospect Noelvi Marte, who was tracking to be the Reds' next breakout stud, was suspended for the first 80 games of the season due to testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. This is a big hit to Cincy's ceiling and infield depth.

It's also unlikely that the Reds will have much reinforcements this season. Lowder and Phillips could be the only rookies outside of Marte to make real contributions. Cincinnati will probably not have the luxury of constantly digging into their wealthy farming system as they had last season.

While the Redlegs did make some promising additions, such as Montas and Candelario, none of these moves are necessarily game changers. Cincy will continue to rely on strong hitting and young players, and if any of this declines, the under could be in good shape.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.