Week 4 NFL Odds: Spreads, Moneylines, and Totals for Every Game

Brandon Gdula•@gdula13

8mo

Week 4 NFL Odds: Spreads, Moneylines, and Totals for Every Game

Exiting Week 3, just three teams are 3-0: the Miami Dolphins, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles.

Four teams are still looking for their first win of the season, so there is no shortage of storylines during Week 4 of the NFL season.

Here are the NFL betting odds for each game in Week 4.

Matchup	Home Spread	Away Moneyline	Home Moneyline	Over/Under
Atlanta at Jacksonville	-3.0	+140	-168	43.5
Miami at Buffalo	-3.0	+124	-146	53.5
Pittsburgh at Houston	+3	-146	+124	41.5
LA Rams at Indianapolis	-1.0	-108	-108	45.5
Minnesota at Carolina	+4.5	-210	+176	46.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans	-3.5	+158	-188	39.5
Washington at Philadelphia	-8.5	+340	-430	43.5

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Falcons at Jaguars Week 4 Odds

Spread: Jaguars (-3)
Falcons Moneyline: +140
Jaguars Moneyline: -168
Total: 43.5

The Falcons suffered their first loss of the season in Week 3 when they fell 20-6 to the Lions.

They had to throw the ball at a high rate (69.2% raw pass rate) but still stuck to their philosophy and had a -5.6% pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the loss. On the season, Atlanta ranks 32nd in the NFL in PROE (-11.3%).

As for the Jaguars, they were upset by division rivals, the Houston Texans, in Week 3 and are now just 1-2 on the season with a worrisome -18 point differential.

Trevor Lawrence is averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt but has played two top-12 defenses by EPA per drop back allowed. Adjusting his performance for opponents, he's still underperforming, but the matchup with Atlanta (19th in pass defense) could help this team find its groove in London at Wembley Stadium.

Zay Jones did not practice at all this week and is out for Week 4.

Dolphins at Bills Week 4 Odds

Spread: Bills (-3)
Dolphins Moneyline: +124
Bills Moneyline: -146
Total: 53.5

Fresh off of a 70-point explosion and the arrival of running back De'Von Achane, the Miami Dolphins head to Buffalo to face the Bills, who have won two straight matchups after dropping their opener.

Despite a 3-0 record of their own and a 50-point victory in Week 3, Miami's point differential (+59) is only three points better than Buffalo's (+56).

These two teams are putting distance between themselves and the Patriots (-7) and Jets (-19) already.

Unsurprisingly, Tua Tagovailoa is leading all quarterbacks in EPA per drop back (+0.59) with no other qualified passer above a +0.20 mark.

And he should be getting receiver Jaylen Waddle back; Waddle has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to return in Week 4.

Steelers at Texans Week 4 Odds

Spread: Steelers (-3)
Steelers Moneyline: -146
Texans Moneyline: +124
Total: 41.5

In an unconventional twist, the Pittsburgh Steelers have a 2-1 record but a -14 point differential. The Commanders are at a -28 despite their 2-1 record, but the 0-3 Vikings are at a -13. The NFL is wild sometimes.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett has operated with some bottom-tier passing efficiency through three games and is 8.6 points worse in passing success rate (34.8%) than the NFL average (43.4%). He's getting by on some big plays, which has been typical for him in his career thus far.

Texans rookie CJ Stroud has actually played some phenomenal football to start his career. He's averaging 7.5 yards per pass attempt and is playing 0.18 points per drop back better than expectation once accounting for defenses faced. That's a top-five rate in football.

Texans tackle Laremy Tunsil is out.

Rams at Colts Week 4 Odds

Spread: Colts (-1)
Rams Moneyline: -108
Colts Moneyline: -108
Total: 45.5

The Colts have put together a two-game winning streak, thanks to a walk-off field goal victory over the Ravens in Week 3, and they'll now host the Rams on a short week after they play on Monday Night Football to close out Week 3.

In relief of Anthony Richardson, who missed Week 3's game against the Ravens because of a concussion, quarterback Gardner Minshew mustered only 5.2 yards per attempt and some subpar EPA metrics.

The team relied heavily on running back Zack Moss, who put up 145 scrimmage yards against Baltimore. Richardson is now out of concussion protocol and set to start.

The Rams couldn't quite get it done on Monday night and lost 19-16 to the Bengals. Of the 11 teams that are 1-2, only two of them have positive point differentials, including the Rams, who lead at a +7.

Vikings at Panthers Week 4 Odds

Spread: Vikings (-4.5)
Vikings Moneyline: -210
Panthers Moneyline: +176
Total: 46.5

After over-performing a year ago in the win column, the Vikings are facing the wrath of regression. A 13-4 record last season for Minnesota was tied to a -3 point differential and an expected winning percentage of 49.4% (for 8.4 expected wins).

Now, they're 0-3 despite a not-great-but-not-dreadful -13 point differential. That's come from losses of three, six, and four points.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins and receiver Justin Jefferson are still clicking, and Jefferson is up to a league-high 458 yards through three games, putting him on pace for nearly a 2,600-yard season over 17 games.

The Panthers lost a third straight game to open the season as Andy Dalton and the offense put up a fight but ultimately lost 37-27 to the Seattle Seahawks.

Rookie Bryce Young practiced in full all week, which means we can expect to see him back under center in Week 4.

Buccaneers at Saints Week 4 Odds

Spread: Saints (-3.5)
Buccaneers Moneyline: +158
Saints Moneyline: -188
Total: 39.5

The Saints are home favorites against a division rival, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in Week 4. Tampa Bay will be on a short week after a Monday Night Football matchup to close out Week 3.

The Saints, though, lost quarterback Derek Carr to a shoulder injury (an AC joint sprain) in Week 3's loss to the Packers.

In relief, Jameis Winston threw 16 times for 101 yards. Of his 16 attempts, 7 of them went to Michael Thomas (6 catches for 60 yards), and 5 went to Chris Olave (3 catches for 46 yards).

Winston's high aDOT (average depth of target) ways tend to be tied to a lot of volatility, so this matchup could be one to watch, assuming Winston gets the starting nod.

Carr's status is uncertain. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was limited on Friday; his status for Sunday is questionable. The team will be getting running back Alvin Kamara in the rotation for the first time this season after he completed his suspension.

Tampa Bay couldn't hang with the Eagles on Monday Night Football and lost 25-11, but they will still be .500 even with a loss as underdogs this week.

Commanders at Eagles Week 4 Odds

Spread: Eagles (-7.5)
Commanders Moneyline: +340
Eagles Moneyline: -430
Total: 43.5

The Commanders have a lot to prove in Week 4 against the Eagles, who could be 3-0 by the time they meet on Sunday afternoon.

Washington is 2-1 but has narrow victories over the Cardinals (20-16) and the Broncos (35-33) as well as blowout loss to the Bills (37-3). A -28 point differential is a bottom-five mark in the NFL through Sunday of Week 3.

Quarterback Sam Howell will really need to tone down the sacks (6.3 per game and a 16.1% sack-per-drop-back rate) against the Eagles' front.

Philadelphia picked up a 25-11 win on Monday Night Football to remain unbeaten, and the spread has climbed a point from 7.5 at the open.

Broncos at Bears Week 4 Odds

Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
Broncos Moneyline: -166
Bears Moneyline: +140
Total: 46

Barring a tie, we'll have one fewer winless team in the NFL after the final buzzer in Chicago this weekend.

The 0-3 Broncos, despite a 50-point loss, have a better point differential (-53) than the 0-3 Bears (-59).

Russell Wilson's efficiency has actually been fairly solid, including a 7.6-yards-per-pass-attempt rate on an aDOT of 8.9 yards. The overall EPA per drop back is pretty weak, though (-0.11).

That looks fantastic compared to Justin Fields' numbers, however. Fields' EPA per drop back is -0.45, and his yards-per-attempt rate is 6.0. His passing success rate of 33.7% is fourth-worst of any starting quarterback.

The spread here is shifting more toward Denver, as well.

Ravens at Browns Week 4 Odds

Spread: Browns (-1.5)
Ravens Moneyline: +110
Browns Moneyline: -130
Total: 39.5

The Browns will round out the first four weeks of the NFL season with matchups against each of their AFC North rivals. They won 24-3 against the Bengals in Week 1 before losing 26-22 to the Steelers in Week 2.

Now, they're onto the Ravens at home.

Baltimore dropped a game to the Colts 22-19 in overtime in Week 3 to end their undefeated start to the season.

Interestingly, Lamar Jackson has a top-five passing success rate (53.2%) but weak EPA numbers (-0.13 per drop back).

Deshaun Watson had his best game of the season in Week 3: 289 yards and 2 touchdowns on 33 attempts. It did come against a team that is 25th in Passing EPA per drop back allowed, so he'll be tested once again versus Baltimore, who is 8th.

Baltimore again has a long injury list but had linemen Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley get in a limited practice on Thursday.

Browns QB Deshaun Watson is listed as questionable with an injury to his throwing shoulder.

Bengals at Titans Week 4 Odds

Spread: Bengals (-2.5)
Bengals Moneyline: -146
Titans Moneyline: +124
Total: 41

The Tennessee Titans are not quite in turmoil through three weeks of action, but we have a pretty interesting stretch upcoming for them.

They're 1-2 with a one-point loss to the Saints, a three-point win over the Chargers in Week 2, and a 24-point loss to the Browns in Week 3.

Ryan Tannehill's passing metrics (-0.32 EPA per drop back) look a lot less dreadful once accounting for opponents (-0.07 versus expectation), but his passing success rate of 29.2% is a league-worst mark, and he is taking a 13.5% sack rate.

The Bengals picked up a Week 3 win but still have some questions to answer on the offensive side of the ball.

Raiders at Chargers Week 4 Odds

Spread: Chargers (-5.5)
Raiders Moneyline: +188
Chargers Moneyline: -225
Total: 49.5

Each AFC West team in this matchup is 1-2 but with vastly different point differentials (-1 for the Chargers and -32 for the Raiders).

Las Vegas QB Jimmy Garoppolo had to be evaluated for a concussion after the team's Week 3 loss to Pittsburgh. As of Friday, he has not cleared concussion protocol.

Davante Adams is still up to his dominant ways: 8.3 catches, 12.3 targets, 107.3 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game. The Chargers are allowing 2.35 yards per route to recievers, the second-highest mark in football.

As for the Chargers' offense, they were again without Austin Ekeler in Week 3, and Joshua Kelley ran 11 times for 12 yards.

That put a lot on the arm of Justin Herbert, who answered the call: 405 yards and 3 touchdowns on 47 attempts. That performance helped get the Chargers a 28-24 win over Minnesota.

Ekeler got in a limited practice on Wednesday seemed to be trending toward playing but is listed as doubtful.

Patriots at Cowboys Week 4 Odds

Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
Patriots Moneyline: +220
Cowboys Moneyline: -2270
Total: 43.5

The New England Patriots avoided an 0-3 start thanks to a 15-10 win over the Jets in Week 3, but their work is cut out for them in Week 4 against the Cowboys in order to avoid a 1-3 record.

Mac Jones has been firmly in the bottom half of the NFL in various passing metrics, including a 6.0 YPA and a -0.19 EPA per drop back rate.

Dallas is first in pressure rate and third in EPA per drop back allowed.

Dallas was upset by the Cardinals on the road in Week 3 but remain favored at home pretty comfortably.

Cardinals at 49ers Week 4 Odds

Spread: 49ers (-14)
Cardinals Moneyline: +610
49ers Moneyline: -900
Total: 43.5

A Week 3 upset win over the Dallas Cowboys didn't go very far toward earning Arizona some respect on the spread against the 49ers this week.

The Cardinals have actually gotten solid EPA numbers from Joshua Dobbs (+0.00 EPA per drop back; the league-average is -0.08) this season.

But the 49ers' Brock Purdy is at +0.20 with a 50.5% passing success rate. That's some elite efficiency.

Further, the 49ers are on extra rest after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Even still, Deebo Samuel is questionable.

Chiefs at Jets Week 4 Odds

Spread: Chiefs (-8.5)
Chiefs Moneyline: -420
Jets Moneyline: +330
Total: 41.5

After losing 21-20 in the NFL's opening game, the Chiefs got superstar tight end Travis Kelce back in the lineup and have won 17-9 (at the Jaguars) and 41-10 (versus the Bears).

They now travel to face the Jets, who are just 24th in EPA per drop back allowed to start the season.

Kelce himself is averaging only 47.5 yards per game but barely played in the second half in Week 3 (but scored in the third quarter). Superstar QB Patrick Mahomes practiced in full on Wednesday despite an ankle scare in Week 3.

Jets QB Zach Wilson has yet to face a defense worse than 10th in EPA per drop back allowed, and once you adjust his numbers, he's played worse than expectation but probably better than perception (-0.08 adjusted EPA per drop back, the same number as Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence, for context).

Seahawks at Giants Week 4 Odds

Spread: Giants (-1.5)
Seahawks Moneyline: -118
Giants Moneyline: -102
Total: 47.5

We're back to a single game on Monday Night Football in Week 4.

The Seahawks travel across the country to face the Giants in hopes of winning a third straight game.

Quarterback Geno Smith has continued his career turnaround through three games and is averaging 245.3 yards per game and 7.1 per attempt with pretty elite efficiency (+0.09 EPA per drop back and a 52.9% passing success rate to rank him fourth).

The Giants are struggling mightily on offense. We know they were blanked in Week 1 against Dallas but then rallied to score 31 in Week 2 against the Cardinals. But against the 49ers, they put up just 12 points.

Overall, Daniel Jones is at -0.34 EPA per drop back -- but -0.02 once accounting for opponents faced. A big performance in primetime would go a long way for this team as they hope to get back to .500.

The spread here has flipped to favor the Giants after they opened as one-point underdogs.

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