Week 4 NFL Betting Trends: Big Favorites at Home, Pre-Bye Week Boosts?

• Pre-Bye Week Edge?: Teams playing the week before their bye have played well since 2019, a notable trend as we near bye weeks on the NFL schedule.
• Neutral Site Underdog Value: Underdogs in neutral-site games have performed well, possibly suggesting reduced home-field advantages.
• Home Touchdown Favorites: Teams favored by 7+ points at home win often (81.3%) in recent seasons as expected -- but do they cover well?

Research is a key component to NFL betting, and while some trends can really come across as flashy, we have to keep in mind that trends are descriptive. They tell us about what has happened.

If a team's star quarterback is out, his franchise's record against divisional opponents the last four years may not really be of use when digging into an upcoming matchup.

But even with that, it's good to know as much as we can before making up our minds.

So, I'll be looking to pinpoint some potentially noteworthy trends entering each week of the NFL season.

Note: All betting odds and trends since 2019, unless otherwise noted. All data from numberFire.

A Pre-Bye Week Boost?

We will often think about how byes impact teams in terms of getting rested, but there has been an interesting trend in recent years for teams leading into a bye.

Since 2019, teams playing the week before their bye have won 54.5% of their games with a 56.5% cover rate.

This really, though, seems to favor the home sides and the favorites leading in.

Favorites playing the week before their bye have won 73.0% of their games with a 60.0% cover rate.

Teams playing at home in these conditions have splits of 61.5% and 63.1%, respectively.

Four teams are on bye in Week 5: the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Of the four, only the Falcons are a true home team this week, and only the Packers are favored.

Neutral Site Advantage

Home field advantage is always evolving throughout the season and from season-to-season, but one thing is for sure: we're stepping into the timeframe of extra neutral-site games.

This week, we have the Steelers and Minnesota Vikings in Dublin early on Sunday morning.

Since 2019, underdogs in neutral games have won 49.0% of their matchups outright and are 58.3% against the spread in such games.

Perhaps travel and routes change enough to keep these games closer than they would at traditional home field sites.

Home Touchdown Favorites

This week, we have four home teams favored by at least 7.0 points as of Wednesday.

• Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints
• Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns
• Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Since 2019, teams favored by at least 7.0 at home, have won 81.3% of their games outright and have covered 51.2% of the time.

When we narrow the sample to home touchdown favorites before Week 10 to see early-season juggernauts in action, those teams are 82.5% outright and 52.3% against the spread.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $300 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.