Virginia vs SMU College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Jan. 17

The Virginia Cavaliers (15-2, 4-1 ACC) will look to build on a four-game win streak when they visit the SMU Mustangs (13-4, 2-2 ACC) on January 17, 2026 at Moody Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Virginia vs. SMU Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, January 17, 2026
• Game time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Dallas, Texas
• Arena: Moody Coliseum

Virginia vs. SMU Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (51.4%)

Before you wager on Saturday's Virginia-SMU spread (Virginia -1.5) or over/under (153.5 points), check out the betting trends and insights below.

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Virginia vs. SMU: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Virginia has won 11 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover six times.
• SMU has won eight games against the spread this season, while failing to cover nine times.
• As a 1.5-point underdog or more in 2025-26, SMU is 4-3 against the spread compared to the 8-6 ATS record Virginia racks up as a 1.5-point favorite.
• The Cavaliers have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than away games. They have covered six times in 10 games when playing at home, and they've covered three times in four games on the road.
• This season, the Mustangs are 5-6-0 at home against the spread (.455 winning percentage). On the road, they are 2-2-0 ATS (.500).
• Virginia has covered the spread four times in five conference games.
• SMU has won twice against the spread in ACC play this year.

Virginia vs. SMU: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Virginia has been the moneyline favorite in 12 games this season and has come away with the win 10 times (83.3%) in those contests.
• The Cavaliers have a mark of 10-2 in contests where oddsmakers favor them by -130 or better on the moneyline.
• SMU has a 2-4 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 33.3% of those games).
• The Mustangs have not won a game when it entered play as a moneyline underdog with odds of +108 or longer in three chances.
• Virginia has an implied victory probability of 56.5% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Virginia vs. SMU Head-to-Head Comparison

• Virginia is outscoring opponents by 17.7 points per game with a +301 scoring differential overall. It puts up 84.7 points per game (50th in college basketball) and allows 67.0 per outing (40th in college basketball).
• Thijs De Ridder is 200th in the nation with a team-leading 16.0 points per game.
• SMU is outscoring opponents by 11.4 points per game, with a +194 scoring differential overall. It puts up 88.4 points per game (19th in college basketball) and allows 77.0 per outing (269th in college basketball).
• Kevin Miller's team-leading 20.8 points per game rank him 20th in college basketball.
• The Cavaliers average 38.5 rebounds per game (16th in college basketball) while conceding 29.4 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 9.1 boards per game.
• Johann Grunloh leads the Cavaliers with 6.8 rebounds per game (192nd in college basketball action).
• The Mustangs rank 77th in the nation at 35.1 rebounds per game. That's 4.4 more than the 30.7 their opponents average.
• Samet Yigitoglu leads the Mustangs with 8.3 rebounds per game (59th in college basketball).
• Virginia's 106.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 35th in college basketball, and the 84.2 points it allows per 100 possessions rank 21st in college basketball.
• The Mustangs average 105.6 points per 100 possessions on offense (47th in college basketball), and allow 92.0 points per 100 possessions (149th in college basketball).

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