Virginia vs Miami (FL) College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 21

The Virginia Cavaliers (23-3, 11-2 ACC) bring a seven-game winning streak into a home matchup with the Miami Hurricanes (21-5, 10-3 ACC), winners of four straight.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, February 21, 2026
• Game time: 2 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ESPN2
• Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
• Arena: John Paul Jones Arena

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Virginia win (78.1%)

Virginia is an 8.5-point favorite over Miami (FL) on Saturday and the over/under has been set at 145.5 points. Below are some betting insights and trends if you plan to place a wager on the outing.

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Virginia vs. Miami (FL): ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Virginia has compiled a 14-12-0 ATS record so far this year.
• Miami (FL) has compiled a 13-13-0 record against the spread this season.
• Virginia covers the spread when it is an 8.5-point favorite or more 53.3% of the time. That's more often than Miami (FL) covers as an underdog of 8.5 or more (never covered this season).
• The Cavaliers have done a better job covering the spread in away games (5-4-0) than they have at home (7-6-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Hurricanes have a lower winning percentage at home (.438, 7-9-0 record) than on the road (.714, 5-2-0).
• Virginia has seven wins against the spread in 13 conference games this year.
• Miami (FL) has five wins against the spread in 13 ACC games this year.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL): Moneyline Betting Stats

• Virginia has come away with 18 wins in the 21 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• The Cavaliers have not lost in 13 games this year when favored by -450 or better on the moneyline.
• Miami (FL) has won four of the seven games it was the moneyline underdog this season (57.1%).
• The Hurricanes have played as a moneyline underdog of +340 or longer in just one game this season, which they lost.
• Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that Virginia has a 81.8% chance of pulling out a win.

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) Head-to-Head Comparison

• Virginia has a +376 scoring differential, topping opponents by 14.5 points per game. It is putting up 81.9 points per game to rank 59th in college basketball and is giving up 67.4 per outing to rank 34th in college basketball.
• Thijs De Ridder's 15.9 points per game lead Virginia and rank 216th in college basketball.
• Miami (FL) has a +338 scoring differential, topping opponents by 13.0 points per game. It is putting up 82.9 points per game, 49th in college basketball, and is allowing 69.9 per contest to rank 78th in college basketball.
• Miami (FL)'s leading scorer, Malik Reneau, ranks 42nd in the country, scoring 19.7 points per game.
• The Cavaliers average 38.2 rebounds per game (sixth in college basketball) while allowing 29.0 per contest to their opponents. They outrebound opponents by 9.2 boards per game.
• De Ridder tops the team with 6.5 rebounds per game (218th in college basketball play).
• The 35.1 rebounds per game the Hurricanes accumulate rank 47th in college basketball, 7.9 more than the 27.2 their opponents collect.
• Ernest Udeh Jr. paces the Hurricanes with 9.3 rebounds per game (25th in college basketball).
• Virginia ranks 52nd in college basketball by averaging 103.8 points per 100 possessions on offense, and defensively is 16th in college basketball, allowing 85.5 points per 100 possessions.
• The Hurricanes record 105.4 points per 100 possessions (34th in college basketball), while allowing 88.9 points per 100 possessions (51st in college basketball).

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