US Open Women's Final Betting Guide: Saturday 9/9/23

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
US Open Women's Final Betting Guide: Saturday 9/9/23

The US Open wraps up this weekend with the finals in men's and women's singles.

What better way to get in on the action than by making wagers on the tennis odds at FanDuel Sportsbook?

Let's see where we can find value in the women's final on Saturday afternoon.

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

Coco Gauff ML (-106)
Over 22.5 Total Match Games (-110)

Whether you bet on Coco Gauff to win the tournament right after Wimbledon (+1400) or at the start of the tournament (+700), that wager is looking mighty good right now. This final is essentially being priced as a pick 'em between the 19-year-old and soon-to-be World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, which speaks volumes to the kind of summer Gauff has had.

In the semis, Coco won fairly comfortably in straight sets against a tough opponent in Karolina Muchova. Muchova didn't play her best tennis until late in the second set when she fended off five match points -- four of which came in the final game -- but by then it was too little, too late.

Sabalenka's semifinal was anything but routine. For much of the match, it was looking like we would have two Americans in the women's final after Madison Keys stomped Sabalenka 6-0 in the opening set. But the Belarusian would instead bounce back and grind out two tiebreaks for the comeback victory.

Despite being up against it in the last round, Sabalenka's otherwise dominated her other matches over the last two weeks, and she figures to be Gauff's toughest test yet at this tournament.

Yet in many ways, this has felt like Gauff's tournament to win. She won her first WTA 500 and WTA 1000 titles over the summer and has arguably been the hottest player on Tour since Wimbledon.

To be upfront here, there's not much value to be found in this match. It's just that close.

You might think that Sabalenka ought to be a sizable favorite over Gauff, who's been up and down in Grand Slams and is still seeking her first Major title. The former dominated their last match 6-4, 6-0 at Indian Wells earlier this year, too.

But the numbers suggest this is practically dead even.

Per Tennis Abstract, the surface-adjusted Elo ratings between these two are separated by... 4.9 points in favor of Sabalenka. That amounts to her having a 50.7% win probability over Coco. It doesn't get much closer than that.

Conventional wisdom suggests we should probably just bet the over on total match games in what is likely to be a three-set match. It's the boring pick, but it's also probably the safest one.

But if I'm picking a side, my lean is to also pick Gauff to win her first Major title, particularly when considering her distinctive home-court advantage. I'm even more inclined if the line shifts, and we can back her at plus money.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.