US Open Championship Odds Update: Which Contenders Have Seen the Most Movement This Summer?
The US Open men's and women's singles draws were revealed on Thursday, so it's a great time to revisit the latest US Open tennis betting odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Shortly after Wimbledon, I reviewed the odds for the top contenders, but now that a month of play has passed, some notable names have seen their odds shift.
Let's take a look at which men and women have been the biggest movers as we quickly approach the start of the tournament on Monday, August 28th.
Men's Singles Championship Odds
Novak Djokovic (+110) and Carlos Alcaraz (+175)
Arguably the biggest change on the men's side is that we've now seen Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz more or less swap places as the two favorites to win the tournament.
This is no doubt the result of their most recent meeting in the Cincinnati final, where Djokovic edged out Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 in a wild match that went nearly four hours. Similar to their epic Wimbledon match, the margins were razor-thin in that one; Novak edged out his new rival 133-128 in total points.
These two are now 2-2 in their head-to-head. Three of the four matched went the distance -- and could have gone either way -- and the only one that didn't, this year's French Open semifinal, looked to be along the same trajectory through two sets before Alcaraz succumbed to cramps.
Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, it's a complete toss-up between these two on hard courts, and we should be in for another treat if they face each other in the final. With that in mind from a betting perspective, the shift in odds for Alcaraz, who was at +130 a month ago, makes him the more appealing side to back.
Daniil Medvedev (+1000)
It says something that Daniil Medvedev has the third-shortest odds to win the title -- yet is that much farther back behind Djokovic and Alcaraz. That gap has widened, too, as Medvedev was +600 right after Wimbledon.
While some of that has to do with the other two looking like they are a tier above everyone else, Medvedev also didn't do much to improve his stock this month.
Following a semifinal appearance at Wimbledon, he's since gone just 3-2 at Canada and Cincinnati, and while his losses were against top-20 opponents, he'll need to be at his very best to have any shot of topping the favorites.
Still, this isn't a bad number to back the Tour's third-best hard courts player, per Tennis Abstract, and he did defeat Novak in the final to win the 2021 US Open title.
Jannik Sinner (+1300) - Sinner's odds remain mostly unchanged. He won his first Masters 1000 title this summer at Canada, only to immediately lose his opening match at Cincinnati days later. He's one of the better candidates to make a run but would likely have to face Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (+4000) - Tsitsipas won a title at Los Cabos but followed it up with quick exits at both Canada and Cincinnati. While his odds ballooning from +2200 to +4000 could theoretically be a buying opportunity for someone who rates favorably on Tennis Abstract, he's on Djokovic's side of the draw, and Djokovic has beaten him 10 straight times.
Frances Tiafoe (+5500) and Taylor Fritz (+6000) - The highest-ranked Americans have also seen their odds grow ever longer. Tiafoe's just 3-3 since Wimbledon. Fritz won a title at Atlanta in July and went 11-3 on summer hard courts -- but he's also never made it past the third round at the US Open.
Women's Singles Championship Odds
Iga Swiatek (+220)
The defending US Open champion remains the favorite after going 11-2 during the US Open Series swing, with her only losses coming in three-setters to top-10 Americans Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff.
Per Tennis Abstract, Iga has more than a 100-point Elo rating advantage over all the top contenders. For context, 100 points imply a 64% chance of winning -- meaning she has a better probability than that against every possible opponent.
Aryna Sabalenka (+450)
Aryna Sabalenka still has the second-shortest odds, most recently making it to the semifinals at Cincinnati with wins over top-15 players Ons Jabeur and Daria Kasatkina.
Sabalenka broke through with her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open this year, and it wouldn't be the least bit surprising to see her nab a second on her best surface. She's already been a Grand Slam semifinalist six times at the age of 25.
Coco Gauff (+700)
No one raised their stock more than Coco Gauff in the lead-up to this tournament.
After getting bounced in the first round at Wimbledon, Gauff has lost just once since, winning the first WTA 500 (Washington, DC) and WTA 1000 (Cincinnati) titles of her career.
As a result, her odds have been sliced in half over the past month.
What might be just as important as those championship wins is the fact she also defeated Swiatek in the Cincinnati semifinals -- her first-ever head-to-head win over Iga in eight tries. Prior to that, she hadn't even won a set over the World No. 1.
While the opportunity to buy low on Coco is long gone, experts have long believed she has what it takes to win a Slam. She rates as the fourth-best hard courts player in the field, per Tennis Abstract.
However, she'll likely need to contend with Iga again if she wants to make a deep run. Based on the draw, these two are projected to face each other in the quarterfinals.
Elena Rybakina (+850) - Rybakina retired early in her last match at Cincinnati about a week and a half ago, so it's fair to wonder whether she'll be healthy enough to hold up over two weeks. But if she's good to go, she's one of the best servers in the sport. While she's made at least the quarterfinals in the other three Grand Slams, she's never advanced past the third round in New York.
Jessica Pegula (+1100) - Ranked No. 3 in the world and coming off a recent WTA 1000 title at Montreal, Pegula should be a contender here but needs to get the monkey off her back. She's been knocking on the door at these Slams over the past few seasons but remains 0-6 in major quarterfinals.
Marketa Vondrousova (+2800) - The surprise Wimbledon champ could be a dark horse candidate, and her odds have lengthened since her breakthrough title. Now playing on what could be her best surface, her only post-Wimby losses have come against contenders Swiatek and Gauff.
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