US Open Championship Odds: Has the Carlos Alcaraz Era Arrived?

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
US Open Championship Odds: Has the Carlos Alcaraz Era Arrived?

With another Wimbledon in the books, it's time to shift our gaze to the last Grand Slam of the year, the US Open.

The US Open tennis betting odds are already up on FanDuel Sportsbook, and the defending champions for both men's and women's singles are favored to win their respective titles again.

How do the odds shake out for the rest of the field? Let's take a look at how the top contenders stack up.

Men's Singles Championship Odds

Carlos Alcaraz+130
Novak Djokovic+150
Daniil Medvedev+600
Jannik Sinner+1100
Stefanos Tsitsipas+2200
Holger Rune+2200
Nick Kyrgios+2900
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Carlos Alcaraz (+130)

Entering Wimbledon, many didn't think Carlos Alcaraz would be ready to compete with Novak Djokovic on grass -- something Novak himself admitted -- due to Alcaraz's inexperience on the surface. But after beating Djokovic, the 23-time Grand Slam winner, at a tournament where he's seemingly been invincible, Alcaraz could be Djokovic's biggest nemesis across all surfaces moving forward.

With that in mind, barring an unlikely dip in form from Alcaraz over the next month, it's really hard to see last year's US Open champion failing to make this year's final, and Djokovic might be the only one who stands in his way from nabbing his third major title.

Alcaraz has been nearly unstoppable in 2023, boasting a 47-4 overall record (10-1 on hard courts) with six titles, including a hard court title at Indian Wells in March.

According to Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings, the 20-year-old enters the summer hard court season with the ATP's highest surface-adjusted rating on hard courts -- narrowly edging out Djokovic.

Novak Djokovic (+150)

Djokovic may have been dethroned at Wimbledon, but it would be foolish to call this a changing of the guard just yet.

In a five-set final that had many shifts in momentum, Alcaraz ultimately edged out Djokovic 168-166 in total points. If a few pivotal moments go Djokovic's way, we could be looking at an entirely different narrative.

But even with the loss, let's not forget that Djokovic is this year's Australian Open and French Open champion, and his run at Roland Garros included a semifinal win over Alcaraz.

While it's worth noting that Alcaraz suffered from cramps in that loss, he admitted to nerves being a major factor, and with the spotlight on him as the defending US Open champ, he could be under a lot more pressure in this event compared to Wimbledon.

If anything, the emergence of a new rival could fuel Djokovic even more in his quest for more Grand Slam titles, and if we see these two meet in the final, it could be another five-set thriller.

Daniil Medvedev (+600)

If someone is going to get in the way of an Alcaraz-Djokovic final, it has to be the 2021 US Open champion, Daniil Medvedev.

There's no question that this is Medvedev's preferred surface. He has a 75% win percentage on hard courts, and 18 of his 20 titles have come on the surface. In addition to his US Open title, he was the runner-up here in 2019, and he's been a finalist in two Australian Opens, as well.

Despite having a 5-9 record against Novak, Medvedev's the only player to beat him on hard courts in 2023, and his US Open championship came at the expense of Djokovic in that year's final.

Medvedev is 1-2 against Alcaraz, though he's failed to win a set over Carlos in two 2023 matches.

Other Notables

Jannik Sinner (+1100) - The 21-year-old has already made five major quarterfinals and was a Wimbledon semifinalist this year. Plays best on hard courts. Maybe he finally breaks through.

Taylor Fritz (+3600) and Frances Tiafoe (+3600) - The top Americans will have the crowd behind them, but neither one has advanced past the third round of a slam in 2023. Tiafoe was a US Open semifinalist in 2022.

Andrey Rublev (+5000) - Rates very well in Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings but is 0-8 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.

Women's Singles Championship Odds

Iga Swiatek+240
Aryna Sabalenka+500
Elena Rybakina+650
Ons Jabeur+1100
Caroline Garcia+1100
Cori Gauff+1400
Jessica Pegula+1600
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Iga Swiatek (+240)

Much like Alcaraz, Swiatek is both the World No. 1 and defending US Open champion, so her status as the favorite isn't surprising. The 22-year-old has already captured four Grand Slam titles and likely has many more to come.

While Swiatek is more known for her dominance on clay, she's certainly no slouch on hard courts. She owns a 75% career win percentage on the surface, and that number jumps to 81% over the last 52 weeks.

Iga's surface-adjusted Elo rating on hard courts ranks first overall, per Tennis Abstract.

Aryna Sabalenka (+500)

Once held back by the yips on her serve, Sabalenka has put that firmly in the rearview mirror, advancing to four straight Grand Slam semifinals and winning this year's Australian Open. She's made the semifinals in back-to-back US Opens, as well.

Facing Sabalenka's power game when she's at her best is a frightening proposition, and she's won 76% of her hard-court matches over the last 52 weeks.

Her surface-adjusted Elo rating ranks second behind Swiatek's, but there's nearly a 100-point gap between the two, implying that Iga would win their head-to-head around 64% of the time. That's roughly how things have played out between the two in previous meetings, as Swiatek has won three of their five matches.

Elena Rybakina (+650)

Rybakina is just a hair behind Sabalenka in surface-adjusted Elo rating, but the difference is that she's defeated Swiatek in three straight matches, all of which have come this year.

The bad news? Rybakina has also lost four out of five to Sabalenka, though she did get her lone win this year at Indian Wells.

Of course, it remains to be seen if either of those head-to-heads comes into play late in the tournament, and Rybakina's devastating serve makes her a tough out for any opponent. Her 11.1% ace rate is one of the best in the WTA, helping her win 74.1% of her first-serve points.

A finalist at the Australian Open and the 2022 Wimbledon champion, Rybakina should be in the mix late in the tournament.

Other Notables

Ons Jabeur (+1100) - Ons is now 0-3 in Grand Slam finals after finishing runner-up at Wimbledon, and she was the 2022 US Open runner-up. She shouldn't be counted out, though.

Coco Gauff (+1400) - While the 19-year-old rising star was a quarterfinalist at last year's US Open, she's had mixed results in majors this season. Lost in the first round at Wimbledon.

Jessica Pegula (+1600) - Similar to Andrey Rublev, Pegula has a high Elo rating but is 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals.

Marketa Vondrousova (+2200) - This year's surprising, unseeded Wimbledon champ. Given that grass was her weakest surface, she could be on the rise after being hampered by injuries in 2022.

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