UFC Singapore: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Singapore: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie, taking place at Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore on Saturday.

SeungWoo Choi vs. Jarno Errens

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

We end this card with "The Korean Zombie," but we'll begin it with his training partner, SeungWoo Choi.

Choi has never been someone I've loved to target, citing his poor peripherals as a reason to not buy the hype on a one-time, three-fight winning streak. Well, he's now lost his last three, but Josh Culibao, Mike Trizano, and Alex Caceras are all accomplished fighters with at least three UFC wins themselves. Choi also dropped two of them and approached a knockout victory that the other fighter ultimately survived.

While I don't love Choi's 37% striking accuracy or 45% striking defense, he'll still have the striking advantage in this fight. Jarno Errens landed just 1.33 significant strikes per minute in his grappling-heavy debut -- and he wasn't on the right end of those exchanges, either.

Errens was an odd signing as a last-second addition to UFC Paris last year, so the Dutch featherweight could exclusively have made the roster by geographical proximity. After all, he lost regionally just one fight prior to getting signed, which you almost never see. He doesn't have a win over a fighter with a UFC appearance, losing his debut to William Gomis. That bout was one-way traffic where Gomis controlled over eight minutes.

This is a good matchup by UFC. Choi's 66% takedown defense stymied Youseff Zalal in 2021, and Errens -- likely needing to grapple -- didn't land a takedown on Gomis. On the flip side, Choi's worst moments have come grappling, so Errens is a good test to see if it's a critical failure.

Errens hasn't been knocked out, and if his chin holds through this date with Choi, it could be tough for the low-volume striker to find a way to win convincingly. I still just can't trust Errens' chin or pace when he's lost regionally, and it really does now seem like Choi is due for luck in the other direction.

He's got a 1.90% knockdown rate in his last three fights against accomplished foes but wasn't fortunate enough to finish any of them. At some point, even a bad referee stoppage should enter the equation if you're hurting opponents at such a high rate.

Betting Verdict

• I have no interest in putting my money behind Choi's ragged peripherals, but a small dart at his knockout prop (if released) could work. That knockdown rate without knockouts is absolutely one to target for regression.
• At the same time, under 2.5 rounds (when released) might be a far superior way to target this fight because it also encapsulates a submission from Errens.

DFS Verdict

• We can't take the first fight of the morning off. Choi ($19) has taken part in an early finish in three of his past four fights.
• I think he's clearly the side to target when Errens' 61.5% finishing rate regionally leaves a lot to be desired. Even if Jarno controls the grappling situations, he hasn't always made it count.

JJ Aldrich vs. Liang Na

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

The UFC betting community doesn't easily forgive, so it might take JJ Aldrich a bit of time to win back supporters.

Aldrich was a -340 favorite in March and got absolutely destroyed by Ariane Lipski (5-5 UFC), but Lipski appears to have ascended quickly. She's picked up another win over Melissa Gatto since that one. Aldrich's -52 striking differential was bad, but failing to secure all 12 takedown attempts she put forth was even worse.

It's not likely that Aldrich (7-5 UFC) has totally forgotten how to fight. At the very least, her 59% striking defense and 70% takedown D are both plus marks for the division. That's why oddsmakers have comfortably made her a favorite over Liang Na.

This is a last-ditch effort from Na to save her UFC contract. She was destroyed, melted, and finished by Ariane Carnelossi (2-2 UFC) and Silvana Gomez Juarez (1-3 UFC) in two bouts at strawweight, and she's likely hoping moving up to 125 pounds helps her durability. She needs it if she's not going to improve upon a 27% striking defense and 0% takedown defense.

Again, those marks have come against other girls on the fringe of the roster, and this isn't really a step back in competition. Aldrich actually has more UFC success than her two previous opponents. This line has moved toward Na, but it's solely because Aldrich has never won inside the distance, and weird things can happen with MMA judging.

This one appears incredibly lopsided on paper.

Betting Verdict

• If released Friday evening, Aldrich's inside-the-distance prop is something I've got to take at this point. Na wasn't exactly large for strawweight and suffered two quick finishes; the extra power at 125 pounds could produce another mopping.
• Under 2.5 rounds would correlate well with that same angle.

DFS Verdict

• I might be alone on this, but I trust Aldrich ($22) at MVP. If there was a dominant favorite with her history of success in a men's division, they'd be a slam dunk MVP. Na's poor defensive marks are a first-percentile outlier and something you target in fantasy regardless of division.

Yusaku Kinoshita vs. Billy Goff

Welterweight (170 pounds)

"Japan's Conor McGregor" didn't exactly live up to that billing in his February debut.

Yusaku Kinoshita lived up to the most recent McGregor's issues defending takedowns, allowing four takedowns on seven attempts before Adam Fugitt put his lights out in the first round. Kinoshita also landed just 41% of his significant strike attempts without much of note connecting.

Fugitt has been finished by others in his other UFC appearances, so the floor for Kinoshita appears far lower than initially thought. At 22 years old, he's one of the youngest fighters on the roster and improving, and I'm a bit surprised UFC has him lined up with a top prospect whose debut has been months in the making. He's at real risk of dropping to 0-2.

Billy Goff was dropped seconds into his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series in 2022 with a high kick, but he came all the way back in the same round to win it with punches himself. Outside of that one kick, Goff dominated with a +5.80 striking success rate (SSR), and he landed two takedowns on four attempts to show a bit of the skill that Kinoshita struggled to withstand.

Goff is only 24 himself, so one of these guys could have made a massive leap in the extended time off. That adds some volatility to this fight, but I see nothing but arrows in Goff's direction. He'll have a two-inch edge in reach, showed the toughness to withstand a major "knockout" blow early in a fight, and he's got the grappling upside of these two.

I've been waiting to back Goff against some of the elder statesmen of this division, but this prospect battle might be up his alley, too.

Betting Verdict

• This line has sat pretty tight all week, so action must be even on both sides. I'm still waiting out the best number for a half-unit wager on Goff's moneyline (+116). He's well-rounded, which hurts the ability to target specific props.
• I don't see any value on the total. These two were in firefights in their last bouts, but they've also been finished just twice professionally combined. The data is too inconclusive at this stage to tell.

DFS Verdict

• This isn't a horrible card for underdogs, but Goff ($14) had a fantasy-friendly pace in his debut if that remains. This is a mid-range fight that's a crucial piece to the puzzle for DFS.

Rolando Bedoya vs. Song Kenan

Welterweight (170 pounds)

"Covering the spread" now has exact meaning at some sportsbooks for UFC, but Rolando Bedoya did both figuratively and literally by earning a split decision from his debut in May.

Bedoya scored a +19 striking differential with excellent striking accuracy (71%), and his 54% striking defense held well enough to withstand the powerful punches of Khaos Williams (5-2 UFC). Many felt he was robbed on the cards, and the impressive effort appears to have earned him a soft second spot against Song Kenan.

Kenan was also used to prop up Ireland's Ian Garry (5-0 UFC), and it's likely because UFC doesn't see a future with the welterweight striker. He's fought just twice since the COVID break, and both were lopsided losses by knockout. Overall, he's put forth a -1.20 SSR by not committing to enough meaningful offense. He's posted a plain 4.13 significant strikes landed per minute in those two bouts.

You can get by in UFC with a 51% striking defense and 50% takedown defense, but it requires high-level offense, and that's not what Kenan has shown in his prior two fights. In fact, it was Bedoya lighting up a division stalwart for 9.93 significant strikes per minute in his debut as a +350 underdog.

Add in that Bedoya is just 26 years old and improving, and it's easy to swallow the chalk with the Peruvian star. This is a step down in competition for him when my model would have awarded him the win in his debut.

Betting Verdict

• I don't have a significant betting lean in this fight. Bedoya's knockout prop could be intriguing given Kenan's track record, but he also showed minimal fight-ending power in his debut. I'm good sitting this one out.

DFS Verdict

• Joining Aldrich in the MVP tier, Bedoya ($21) is looking to become the third-straight fighter to eclipse 115 FanDuel points against Kenan, and his pace on FanDuel was excellent during his debut.

Michal Oleksiejczuk vs. Chidi Njokuani

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This battle of middleweight strikers should be a dandy.

Michal Oleksiejczuk has bounced between 185 and 205 pounds, but he's never wavered as a really solid striker. He's got a +0.80 SSR with above-average marks in striking accuracy (49%) and defense (62%) for the division. He's also put forth a brisk 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute in a division not known for pace.

However, Oleksiejczuk has shown a critical weakness grappling. He's got just a 44% takedown defense and has been submitted in three of his four losses. That's not really Chidi Njokuani's game with just one career submission, but it's been so poor that you can't forget about it.

"Chidi Bang Bang" can absolutely relate. He's got a +1.20 SSR, and each of his last three opponents has attempted at least three takedowns because he's a long, powerful kickboxer. Njokuani's 80" reach is a six-inch edge over a former light heavyweight this week, and his knockdown rate (1.72%) is enormous. He starched Marc-Andre Barriault in seconds, and "Powerbar" hasn't been knocked out by anyone else in 21 pro fights.

Oleksiejczuk's effort against ranked 205'er Dustin Jacoby is why I like Njokuani in this spot. Njokuani is the same height as Jacoby with four more inches in reach, and the normally efficient boxer from Poland had trouble finding the range, landing just 39% of his significant strikes. Jacoby had a +20 striking differential.

In addition to all of the grappling upside in this fight (if there is any), Njokuani is the more diverse striker; Michal, operating exclusively with his hands, hasn't landed a leg kick since his UFC debut in 2017.

Betting Verdict

• This is the first fight where my model has enough modest data to run, and unfortunately, there is no value on either moneyline from it. It has Oleksiejczuk at 55.2% to win versus the 55.6% implied odds, and it would be flipped if Njokuani's last split decision went his way.
• I also have this fight as 77.3% to end inside the distance.

DFS Verdict

• This fight appears to be extremely viable in DFS with a projected early finish, and it's about choosing the right guy. Njokuani ($15) has only been finished in UFC due to exhaustion; I trust his durability slightly more.

Garrett Armfield vs. Toshiomi Kazama

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

This one easily takes the cake for the largest amount of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ on this card.

As a natural 135er, Garrett Armfield made his debut in a fight on three days' notice against David Onama (3-2 UFC) at featherweight as a +610 underdog. He actually survived a competitive first round before a second-round submission in a fight where Onama's size was just too much. He trusted his chin -- never knocked out -- against the powerful Ugandan and was correct to do so. He also went to a decision with Ronnie Lawrence (3-1 UFC) regionally.

On the other side, Toshiomi Kazama participated in UFC's campaign in Asia, Road to the UFC, and earned a decision win to advance to the finals before getting flattened in 33 seconds by Rinya Nakamura, who is also on this card, in February. Kazama hasn't faced anyone with a UFC appearance anywhere on their resumé, so his regional success only means so much. He did finish 8 of his 10 wins regionally, and 5 of those came via submission.

I think that's the genesis for this fight. Armfield has been submitted one other time outside of UFC, and Kazama did that well regionally. However, a really poor showing getting to UFC doesn't inspire much hope for Kazama to actually make a splash in it. If the Armfield that showed up in the first round of the Onama fight was set to face a non-UFC-caliber bantamweight, he'd win.

With minimal confidence, I'd -- fairly -- state there's a substantial chance Kazama fits that description.

Betting Verdict

• My money won't be anywhere near this fight when passing is an option. There is barely a quality measuring stick with either guy given Armfield also lost to Lawerence regionally.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where a decision must be made, and I'd side with Armfield ($18). A 59% striking defense and 66% takedown D against Onama were solid enough to expect him to hang around and deny the underqualified underdog.
• A line on over 2.5 rounds isn't released yet, but it's worth remembering bantamweight's historical tendency toward decisions if it's not.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Lukasz Brzeski

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

This is phenomenal matchmaking between two strikers (mostly) that were undone via wrestling in their last bout.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta's fun style and "Salsa Boy" nickname has earned him a cult following already, and his +3.06 SSR shows how much he battered the embattled duo of Jared Vanderaa (2-6 UFC) and Chase Sherman (4-11 UFC). However, he didn't exactly pass his follow-up bout with Marcos Rogerio de Lima, getting taken down thrice to drop the decision. His 51% striking accuracy is solid, but you'd hope for better than a 53% striking D.

That's evidenced by the fact Lukasz Brzeski isn't on many radars at this point, and he's got a 56% striking defense despite a second fight that looked absolutely miserable to endure. Karl Williams took him down eight times and even dropped the exhausted Polish heavyweight. I still have high hopes for him as a striker after he outclassed Martin Buday (4-0 UFC) with a +52 striking differential in 2021 before getting robbed by an inexcusable decision against the undefeated prospect.

Therefore, we should get a fight here that's pretty fun. These two are the same height with the same reach, and they both land north of five significant strikes per minute. Neither have scored a UFC knockout or knockdown, either. It's a rare heavyweight match built more on volume and durability than punching power.

However, there's value here on Brzeski's betting line. He'd also be 2-1 with Waldo's schedule, and Waldo would be 0-2 with his. Plus, Brzeski authored two takedowns (on three attempts) and two submission attempts in his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series, and WCA hasn't shown that ability at all with the promotion thus far.

At worst, "The Bull" should hang around 15 minutes on the feet as a +205 underdog. At best, he could use his grappling to steal Salsa Boy's shine and reaffirm himself as a heavyweight on the roster.

Betting Verdict

• Not only does the moneyline for Brzeski make sense, but I also love a dart at his submission prop (if released) when he showed those skills on the Contender Series. Cortes-Acosta hasn't faced a submission attempt yet.
• I'd still largely expect this fight to go the distance. Both have showed minimal power at distance thus far.

DFS Verdict

• This fight is fun in this realm. I won't even say no to Waldo ($19) when he's put forth 7.09 significant strikes per minute in a decent sample, so he can pay off in a decision -- and even a loss if the pace gets frenetic.
• Brzeski ($10) is a high-floor plug with some finishing upside on the other side; he'll be the larger priority for me.

Junior Tafa vs. Parker Porter

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Few will get better shots at revenge in UFC than Parker Porter will on Saturday.

Earlier this year in Perth, Porter was knocked out by Justin Tafa in Tafa's backyard. Now in Singapore, he'll get a swipe at his younger brother, Junior Tafa.

Porter has shed the meme-worthy physique he once had in UFC, so it's pretty undeniable that he's a solid bet in this tier of heavyweight. He's got a +0.32 SSR, landing 6.66 significant strikes per minute at a pace most heavyweights can't match. He also used his grappling (1.38 takedowns per 15) to defeat newcomer Braxton Smith back in May. He earned top position and never looked back.

The younger Tafa had an odd UFC debut. As a slight underdog to Mohammad Usman, Tafa landed just 1.47 significant strikes per minute with terrible 36% accuracy. His offense wasn't efficient enough to score the knockout he needed despite a modest 83% takedown D.

Of course, Usman is a former The Ultimate Fighter winner with a -1.50 SSR against foes that are a combined 1-3 in UFC to this stage. He hasn't proven anything and was still able to dispense Tafa by being relentless enough with the takedowns, and Tafa showed zero ability to get back to his feet. He ceded just two takedowns to Usman, but those resulted in being controlled for 80.7% of the fight.

If Porter's chin holds, I don't see how he loses to the newcomer. He's a better wrestler than Usman with decent striking. Junior is also smaller and less powerful than his brother, which makes the knockout he ultimately needs a bit less likely.

Betting Verdict

• I have dispensed a unit on Porter at +124. He'll have three inches of reach in a potential striking match, too. I don't ever bet "knockout or bust" fighters with minimal other paths to win -- but it can backfire. Porter's submission prop (+600) is an interesting dart when Tafa looked totally lost on the ground in his debut.
• Porter entered UFC with decisions in three of his first four, but he's now ended three straight bouts in Round 1 due to some odd matchmaking and losses to better fighters. I still usually side with the over in his fights due to what is a miraculous 0% knockdown rate at heavyweight.

DFS Verdict

• Even with Tafa ($17) a significant -- and I mean significant -- knockout threat at a modest salary, Porter's grappling edge could be equally lopsided. I like the durable veteran in great shape to survive a potential early storm and put up fantasy points of his own.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Taila Santos

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This division's belt is on the line in September, but the two best flyweights in the world might be right here opening this main card.

Erin Blanchfield is on the shortlist of many as the best pound-for-pound fighter in UFC's women's divisions. Blanchfield has soared through multi-time UFC winners like Miranda Maverick, Molly McCann, and Jessica Andrade for a +2.84 SSR, and she's also added 3.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with stellar 63% accuracy.

In short, there isn't a weak spot in her profile that's now battle-tested. I could say the same for Taila Santos, who nearly defeated Valentina Shevchenko in a title fight already. Santos broke her orbital bone after winning each round to that point, but the longtime champion used the injury to survive and win the decision. Santos' 88% takedown accuracy has largely been unopposed, and she's added excellent striking accuracy (50%) and defense (59%) marks, too.

Both of these ladies are also the division's standard for grappling with at least 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has ended her last three fights that way, and Santos' only career win by finish came that way in 2021.

If Santos can just continue to take everyone down, Blanchfield could be in trouble, but Erin's 77% takedown defense has been largely unscathed to this point and won her the Maverick bout. If this fight stays at distance, "Cold Blooded" should batter Santos, averaging 6.06 significant strikes per minute to Taila's 3.05. She's just a far more comfortable striker.

Given Erin has also shown the ability to sweep and hold her own on the mat, I can't see her being dominated there for 15 minutes. That appears to be Santos' path, which is why this line has moved toward Blanchfield all week.

Betting Verdict

• I have Blanchfield at 61.1% to win, so my bet at -142 last week was better value than her current -146 odds, but I'm right in line if you choose.
• I've got this fight at 53.7% to go the distance, and these odds imply a 70.6% chance at -240.

DFS Verdict

• Santos hasn't been the best FanDuel scorer -- especially against top-level grapplers. She didn't exceed 66 FanDuel points against Shevchenko or Gillian Robertson.
• If this fight is fantasy-relevant, Blanchfield ($17) will likely be the one scoring points with strikes, and her insane rate of FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses (5.67) speaks for itself.

Rinya Nakamura vs. Fernie Garcia

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

UFC is making a habit of propping up prospects using the last fight on a struggling fighter's deal, and this is the latest example.

Fernie Garcia has convincingly dropped both of his appearances thus far. The now-cut Journey Newson took an uninspiring striking match between the two, and Brady Hiestand's top game totally neutralized him. Averaging just 2.18 significant strikes per minute and 0.47 takedowns per 15, he just hasn't put forth anywhere close to enough offense to win a decision.

As a -0.65 SSR would indicate, he'll likely be greatly outmatched by Rinya Nakamura in this one. Nakamura ran through fellow countryman Toshiomi Kazama in February, and he's complied four knockdowns across his last two UFC-affiliated appearances. He scored a win by submission in his first, as well.

The 28-year-old budding Japanese phenom isn't without concern, though. Kazama and his previous two UFC-affiliated opponents don't have appearances against anyone with a UFC appearance themselves, so even winning Road to the UFC, he hasn't proven it against a decent opponent with any measuring stick to this point.

However, the context clues here are helpful. Garcia hasn't once put forth a sparkling offensive moment, and this fight is on a Singapore main card ahead of the previous title-fight eliminator. It's because Nakamura, close to home, has been stunning through two appearances, and Garcia -- while competent with a 54% striking D -- has proven to be an impotent challenge for a prospect with fight-ending capabilities in all domains of MMA.

Betting Verdict

• In what profiles to be another spot for Nakamura to shine, I don't know how you'd argue with his -950 moneyline. He's also deservingly -320 to finish this one before the final bell.
• At the pace Nakamura fires, he'll likely tire if Garcia is somehow still standing. That's why this fight is -550 to go the distance and not particularly worth a wager from that angle.

DFS Verdict

• Nakamura ($22) doesn't even carry the highest salary on the slate thanks to the main event, and he's +100 to win this in the first round and secure a minimum of 100 FanDuel points. Garcia has been pedestrian enough to not overthink this.

Giga Chikadze vs. Alex Caceras

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)

There couldn't have been a more perfect fight for the return of Giga Chikadze.

I was highly critical of Chikadze before his last fight on 2022's first card, and Calvin Kattar (-1.98 SSR) boxed the Georgian up and down to hold a +16 striking differential in a unanimous decision. Kattar has been turned back by several top contenders, so we found the ceiling for this version of Giga.

"Ninja" had a fortuitous run last-minute opponents before knockouts of the fragile, aging Cub Swanson and Edson Barboza, and he flunked that fight with his first ranked fighter in his prime. Alex Caceras has also had trouble getting over that proverbial hump, so this is a phenomenal measuring stick for both.

After an up-and-down career in the mid-2010s, Caceras has won seven of his last eight bouts and held a positive striking differential in the exception against Sodiq Yusuff (7-1 UFC). He's still just 35 years old despite a lengthy promotional history dating back to 2011, so I've still got him on the fringe of his prime entering this one. After all, Chikadze is 34 himself.

The nearly identical level of competition made this a pretty easy one to call. Caceras lands more significant strikes per minute (4.16) with higher accuracy (51%) and defends a higher rate of strikes (63%). With a 68% takedown accuracy, he's also been sneaky about besting strikers there when Chikadze has landed just one of three total takedown attempts.

Truthfully, I had far less hope for Caceras against Yusuff (+1.64 SSR). Seeing his proficiency in that fight gives me a tremendous amount of hope that he can at least keep this fight extremely competitive as a +198 underdog. With Chikadze's lack of grappling upside, it's worth mentioning that "Bruce Leeroy" hasn't been KO'd since 2015.

Betting Verdict

• I feel tremendous about my model's handicap of this one. It gives Caceras a 55.0% chance to win this fight while also paying mind to Chikadze winning it 25.2% of the time by knockout. If it goes the distance, Alex is in a great spot.
• It also sees this fight as 53.2% likely to go the distance, so this fight to not go the distance at +132 could be an excellent hedge to Caceras' moneyline (or vice versa) when a Caceras win inside the distance (+450) could cash both.

DFS Verdict

• This is where I wouldn't blame anyone for turning to Chikadze. Caceras has just a 19.5% chance of that early finish, per my model. Chikadze's equity for one is much higher, but I still have confidence in the durable underdog at $11.

Ryan Spann vs. Anthony Smith

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

These two dueled in a wild main event in September of 2021; they'll now rematch moving in opposite directions.

Anthony Smith won that one with a pair of knockdowns and a first-round submission, but the 35-year-old's deterioration is what provides some intrigue in this battle. Since that fight with Ryan Spann, Smith has gotten steamrolled by Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker with a total striking differential of -82 in those two bouts.

Spann's arrow is pointing upward. He knocked out former title contender Dominick Reyes and nearly submitted the credentialed Nikita Krylov in a wild firefight that saw three submission attempts in less than four minutes. Even losing to Krylov, Spann is still fighting up the rankings here to Smith -- likely because he's seen as a different prospect after admitting to now training full-time for the first period of his career.

I've only ever backed Smith with severe drops in competition level. His -1.53 SSR is dreadful, adding a 43% striking defense and 47% takedown defense behind it. Smith had found finishes on Spann, Devin Clark, and Jimmy Crute with high-level offense, but totaling just 2.43 significant strikes per minute in his past two bouts, that offensive well has ran dry. Clark and Crute also both have losing records since they fought.

To me, it speaks volumes that Spann is favored in this bout after losing decisively less than two years ago, and he's improved his SSR to -0.04. "Lionheart" Smith was about a -180 favorite in that one and looked the part, but his decline is noticeable without any clear signs of life. Add in that Spann appears to be improving, and it's a really easy decision to back the 31-year-old "Superman" in the rematch.

Betting Verdict

• Spann hasn't been outside the first round in six straight fights, but this could be an area where it happens. Smith's offense has shelled to a crawl for the purpose of self-preservation. Rather than get suckered into Spann's early-finishing props, I prefer a straight bet on his moneyline (-132).
• Superman's superhuman knockdown rate (3.33%) and submission-attempt rate (1.90 per 15 minutes) have broken my model. It's giving a 99.4% chance this fight finishes inside the distance, but to be fair, the implied odds at -700 (87.5%) aren't far off.

DFS Verdict

• With such heavy odds for this one to finish early, it's likely fantasy-relevant, and it's not stackable. This is truly a "choose the winning fighter in your build" situation, and I'm rolling with Spann ($16).

Max Holloway vs. Chan Sung Jung

Men's Featherweight (145 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

From an entertainment perspective, Max Holloway always brings it. There just isn't a particularly enthralling betting angle here.

Holloway was positioned for his toughest fight against anyone not named Alexander Volkanovski in April, and he battered Arnold Allen for a non-competitive decision win with a +71 striking differential. The former champion has had a positive differential in 23 of his 28 UFC fights with the only exceptions being the trilogy against Volk, Conor McGregor, and Dustin Poirier. That's not too shabby -- and how you get a lifetime +2.37 SSR in a massive sample.

Holloway's low knockdown rate (0.26%) and great takedown D (84%) creates the exact same looking fight in every challenge, and Chan Sung Jung is not the same level of challenge he's even been facing lately. "The Korean Zombie" has been demolished in two of his last three fights by Volkanovski and Brian Ortega, who had a -180 striking differential to Holloway. This could get ugly quickly.

K.Z. averages 0.74 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47% accuracy, which is a fine wrestling game if not trying to barrel into one of the best defenses in the sport. On the feet, he's earned his nickname by a willingness to wade through damage, but a 52% striking defense and -0.38 SSR -- against lesser competition by and large -- just aren't inspiring marks to believe he can evenly trade when striking.

Though "Blessed" Holloway has a lot of mileage at 31 years old, he's still clearly in a tier at 145 pounds by himself behind Volkanovski. He'll likely fight Ilia Topuria one day soon to test that theory.

At 36 years old and already one retirement deep, this profiles -- to me -- as a spot where Jung, who has always prided himself on taking the most difficult fights, sets up a retirement fight close to Singapore, and there will be no shame in losing convincingly to a future UFC Hall of Famer in his prime.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Holloway winning this fight by decision 51.1% of the time, and that's with giving what I'd call an extraordinary benefit of the doubt to Jung's previous knockout power against lesser competition. It's a fairly obvious call at +170 give Korean Zombie's historical durability.
• With that in mind, this fight to go the distance (+140) might actually be a bit undervalued given Zombie wasn't able to survive his last bout with Volkanovski. Max has significantly less power.

DFS Verdict

• Even going to a decision, Holloway ($23) has been a fantasy machine. He's scored at least 75 FanDuel points not including a win bonus in 9 of his last 10 fights -- and 7 of 7 not facing Volkanovski. That's an unheard of floor in UFC daily fantasy.
• Korean Zombie ($13) hasn't topped 40 FanDuel points in each of his last two lopsided losses; I'm not sure he's worth a stack in a fight heading likely heading the distance, but I stack Holloway fights religiously.

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