UFC

UFC São Paulo: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
UFC São Paulo: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 11 fights at UFC Sao Paulo: Almeida vs. Lewis, taking place at Ginasio Do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil on Saturday.

Marc Diakiese vs. Kaue Fernandes

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Marc Diakiese-192 $17 5' 10"73"-0.042.94
Kaue Fernandes+154 $13 5' 9"73"0.000.00

Once a top prospect in the division, Marc Diakiese is fighting for his job in the opening prelim. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Diakiese isn't the world's most reliable fighter, dropping four of his six fights since the COVID break, but he's has a clear identity. He lands 3.32 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44% accuracy, and he was on his way to a win against Joel Alvarez before an uncalled foul led to his eventual demise in his home country earlier this year. This would be buying him -- and his pedestrian -0.04 striking success rate (SSR) -- at his absolute low point against newcomer Kaue Fernandes.

Fernandes is a member of UFC's minor-league promotion, LFA. He's scored first-round knockouts in his last two outings following a decision loss to Luan Andre Souza Sardinha, an undefeated prospect. None of his foes have a UFC appearance, making this one a tough one to cap on paper.

My decision was ostensibly made for me this week. This line moved significant to boast Diakiese as a -192 favorite in this spot, and while he does have a significant edge in experience, there are obvious paths to Diakiese losing this fight. He was unable to take down 36-year-old Michael Johnson less than a year ago, and his only wins since the COVID break have come against fighters with a sub-40% takedown defense.

Fernandes' jiu-jitsu could make him the third to submit Diakiese since the COVID break, but he also figures to be the more dynamic striker. Personally, there's way too much juice behind the unreliable veteran.

Betting Verdict

  • I had no desire to bet this fight as a near-pick 'em on Monday, but I'm warming up to the idea of Fernandes (+154) as the line swells. Fight-week line movement is constantly unreliable, so I don't necessarily see this inflation as anything beyond casual UFC fans backing the known quantity.
  • Diakiese's wins have come exclusively by decision, so the +112 odds for this fight to not go the distance likely correlate with the underdog scoring an explosive upset.

DFS Verdict

  • Diakiese hasn't topped 100 FanDuel points in either decision win since the start of 2020 with a bunch of takedowns; it'll take a criticial failure from the newcomer for him to pay off a $17 salary.
  • I'd love alternatives to avoid Fernandes ($13), but that's not the reality of this injury-shortened card. A win from him could decide tournaments.

Eduarda Moura vs. Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Eduarda Moura-650 $21 5' 6"67"1.503.67
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz+440 $8 5' 0"61"-3.421.85

I've tried to integrate Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) viewing into my process to try and understand the prospects better before they get here. That'll help avoid missing on the true gems, and Eduarda Moura could be one of them.

Moura didn't absorb a single significant strikes and allowed just three attempts, so my analytical process probably would still have found "special" with her. She landed 3.75 takedowns and 3.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes en route to a first-round finish. She was only a -186 favorite on FanDuel, so it was a bit surprising she was so dominant.

Against a quality strawweight, I'd have to really balance her potential with the probability that her DWCS opponent was just extremely poor, but Montserrat Conejo Ruiz has given us enough data that she can't hang.

Conejo Ruiz has landed an impossibly low 0.82 significant strikes per minute with 28% accuracy; she basically can't strike at all. In her UFC debut, she exploited the shoddy takedown D of Cheyanne Vlismas (3-2 UFC), but her second appearance against Jacqueline Amorim was quite sad. Amorim, 0-1 entering the bout, had a +80 striking differential with four seperate quality submission attempts. She can't really grapple at a UFC level, either, against quality foes.

The largest problem for Conejo Ruiz as a one-dimensional grappler is that she's just 5'0" tall with a 61" reach. She's the smallest fighter on UFC's roster. If her quickness was an asset on the feet, it could work, but she was laughably outgunned by Amorim as a larger fighter with a pulse of jiu-jitsu acumen.

Moura has six inches of height and reach with a significantly higher UFC ceiling; don't overthink this one.

Betting Verdict

  • I feel like the historical trends around this fight provide enormous value to Moura's inside-the-distance prop (-160). Women's strawweight has the highest rate of decisions among active divisions, and it also hedges Moura's moneyline a bit due to the upset rates in women's divisions across the board. This fight isn't close.
  • Under 2.5 rounds (-174) is nearly the same bet but also hedges for a Moura injury or a shocking upset.

DFS Verdict

  • I actually really like Moura ($21) in this format when she may be less popular as a debuting strawweight. Amorim posted 127.6 FanDuel points on Conejo Ruiz, and I believe Eduarda to be a better prospect.

Denise Gomes vs. Angela Hill

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Denise Gomes-134 $16 5' 2"63"1.973.91
Angela Hill+110 $14 5' 3"64"0.493.53

We'll find out Saturday how much Angela Hill has in the tank. I can't imagine the 2021 version of Hill losing this fight.

A motivated and improved Mackenzie Dern (8-3 UFC) beat Hill pillar to post with a +60 striking differential in her last fight, but Hill's notorious toughness was once again on display to go the whole distance. In 23 UFC fights, Hill has been submitted just twice and never been knocked out. That will take Denise Gomes' recent weapon away from her should it hold.

Gomes delivered a knockout blow to Yazmin Jauregui just 20 seconds into her last fight as a +310 underdog, so it's interesting to think how that would have played out with more distance. Gomes' +1.97 SSR largely comes from a battering of Bruna Brasil (1-1 UFC) at UFC's entry level; it wasn't that long ago she amassed a -29 striking differential and ceded four takedowns to the unranked Loma Lookboonme (5-2 UFC).

If Hill wasn't 38 years old, there would be no drama in this one. She's compiled a 61% striking defense and 76% takedown defense against ranked-level competitors like Dern, Virna Jandiroba, and Amanda Lemos. All three are ranked significantly higher than Lookboonme, who largely had her way with Gomes. However, Hill climbing toward 40 and Gomes' projected improvement at 23 year old adds some drama.

I'll still go with the underdog and veteran here. In December of 2022, Hill pummeled Emily Ducote (2-2 UFC) for a +111 striking differential, and she's routinely turned away unranked prospects. That was less than 12 months ago, implying she's got enough in the tank to at least win this even if it's not quite as impressive.

Betting Verdict

  • I'm waiting as long as possible to bet Hill's moneyline (+110). UFC consumers love the prospects scoring finishes, so this line has moved against her all week. I don't see a need to fire until that stops so that I can get a better number.
  • Gomes' recent tendency to score finishes has created some value on this total since she's favored. I'm even more inclined to bet or parlay over 2.5 rounds (-290) here when it also would just lump in Gomes getting a competitive nod.

DFS Verdict

  • Gomes' $16 salary isn't that high for someone who is, at the very least, aggressive. I just can't see her finishing Hill ($14), so I'll take the salary savings.

Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Vitor Petrino-245 $18 6' 2"77"0.514.18
Modestas Bukauskas+194 $12 6' 3"78"-0.672.08

"Prospect" is an overused word in MMA, but at 26 years old, Vitor Petrino might be unstoppable when he's actually good.

Petrino's corner was shouting specific instructions as to how to submit Marcin Prachnio (3-5 UFC) in his last bout, which implies he was holding the Polish striker (+2.14 SSR) down with nothing but strength rather than technique. Once he's in the driver's seat to know what he's supposed to do, that could be frightening.

Petrino has posted a +0.51 SSR though three UFC-affiliated bouts on the feet, and he's landed 4.42 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 73% accuracy despite the technical gaps still filling. He's just a freak athlete for this division.

UFC has given him a favorable opponent for his first fight in his native country. Modestas Bukauskas is a three-time UFC winner, but he's neither voluminous or particularly dangerous. His only win by "finish" was an absurd referee stoppage against Andreas Michailidis, who was a middleweight that took that fight on short notice. He's landed just 3.46 significant strikes per minute with no wrestling or grappling yet.

I do like this matchmaking from UFC because Bukauskas' takedown defense (75%) could be good enough to force Petrino to strike. However, Vitor has landed 50% of his significant strike attempts to Bukauskas' 40%, and his knockdown rate (0.80%) shows a good amount of power when Bukauskas has yet to score a drop in UFC when exclusively kickboxing to this point.

The only path I see Petrino losing this fight is getting lulled to sleep for a snore-inducing decision, but Petrino's early aggression in fights -- and this fight happening in his home country -- should help him avoid the trap.

Betting Verdict

  • I love Petrino's first-round prop (+300) in this fight. We've never seen Bukauskas defend a submission attempt in UFC, and he's at a clear power disadvantage. Modestas has squeaked into a level of competition in which he can't hang; his consecutive wins have come despite a -12 striking differential.
  • The total in this fight directly correlates with its projected winner. Bukauskas' win would almost certainly come by decision (+460), and Petrino likely can't outpoint the kickboxer and must win inside the distance (+105).

DFS Verdict

  • Petrino's lack of technical ability might be scary -- and unnecessary -- to lock into the multiplier spot, but he's got clear paths to score the 100 FanDuel points for said first-round victory.

Elves Brener vs. Kaynan Kruschewsky

Catchweight (165 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Elves Brener-215 $17 5' 10"72"-0.743.27
Kaynan Kruschewsky+172 $14 6' 0"73"3.499.48

Nothing -- and I mean nothing -- is more fitting for this card than my original Austin's Fight of the Night pick getting cancelled on Friday and substituting it with a fight that came about less than five days ago.

Still, if we're going to have an action-packed war on this card, all signs point to a fight involving Elves Brener being the favorite. Brener came from behind in wild fashion to dispense Guram Kutateladze (1-2 UFC) as a +550 underdog. Kutateladze's lack of submission danger bit him badly; Brener survived the early storm and capitalized when Kutateladze was tired from the punching volume. Brener also got a controversial decision win on short notice over Zubaira Tukhugov, so he's no stranger to pulling upsets in UFC already.

He'll be in a new position here favored against Kaynan Kruschewsky, and this fight will happen at 165 pounds to accommodate the Brazilian challenger on four days' notice. Kruschewsky's UFC-affiliated sample is small, but it sure was mighty. He dispatched Serra-Longo MMA propsect Dylan Manatello on DWCS in August, amassing a +3.49 SSR before finding a submission. It was a dominant win over a guy who trains with Matt Frevola, Nazim Sadykhov, and other top UFC fighters in this weight range.

We've seen wild upsets before, and Brener is a guy I was looking to fade. He's not going to have sustained UFC success behind a -0.74 SSR forever, and Kruschewsky's submission danger will be a new element for him to deal with in UFC -- though Elves is 11-0 in submission outcomes regionally.

This is an odd, last-minute fight, but this much is known: Kruschewsky is huge for the usual weight class (155 pounds), he dominated his debut over a modest foe, and Brener's 2-0 record doesn't match his performance within those fights. It's kind of hard to visualize, but those are all ingredients of a potential upset to me.

Betting Verdict

  • I likely won't make it to the window on Kruschewsky due to the extraordinary circumstances, but I think this is more of a warning off Brener's -215 moneyline as he's grown to cult-hero status within MMA circles.
  • This fight likely won't have props until Saturday due to its official announcement coming Thursday.

DFS Verdict

  • Brener's come-from-behind win netted 113.0 FanDuel points, but his first fight was a clunker (61.4 FanDuel points) against a featherweight. Desperate for value, I'll proceed with caution behind Kruschewsky ($14) as a lower-salaried option in tournaments.

Rinat Fakhretdinov vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Rinat Fakhretdinov-355 $20 6' 0"74"2.424.41
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos+270 $11 5' 11"73"1.383.01

Plenty of Brazilians on this card received favorable matchups, but Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wasn't one of them.

Welterweight's boogeyman at the moment is Russia's Rinat Fakhretdinov, and he only further confirmed that by submitting former lightweight title challenger Kevin Lee in 55 seconds back in July. I'm not even sure this is a tougher matchup for the grappler than Lee, a credentialed wrestler.

Fakhretdinov has posted 5.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with stellar 63% accuracy, and he's never been taken down himself. We've yet to see much striking, but the early returns (57% striking defense) have been good enough. He easily dispatched Bryan Battle (4-1 UFC), who has easily finished the other three 170-pounders he's faced. Fakhretdinov is a terrifying wrestler in the same vein of an Islam Makhachev at 155.

Zaleski dos Santos' 65% takedown defense just doesn't seem good enough with that the case. That mark was even worse before defending seven of eight takedown attempts from Abubakar Nurmagoedov (22% takedown accuracy) in his last fight, which was a razor-close split decision. EZDS probably is the stronger striker (+1.38 SSR) if he can keep this one standing, but that's a huge "if".

Fakhretdinov has controlled at least 86.7% of his fights extending beyond the first minute, which is a level of dominance I don't feel like fading -- especially when Zaleski dos Santos returned from a year-long drug suspension looking fairly washed in June.

Betting Verdict

  • With 30-plus minutes of fight time on both sides, I was able to model this guy. I've got Fakhretdinov at 66.0% to win, which is a strong mark given his lack of quality competition so far. There isn't a single domain (striking, wrestlng, or grappling) where EZDS is grading out with an analytical advantage.
  • Some might target the Russian for a finish, but we've seen absurd patience from him before, and Zaleski dos Santos has seen the full distance in each of his last four bouts. I'm not surprised the model is projecting a full fight 60.7% of the time with FanDuel's odds at 50.0% implied.

DFS Verdict

  • Fakhretdinov ($20) has been too dominant to score "poorly", but his win over Lee was his first bout topping 100 FanDuel points, so I don't feel the need to jam him into the multiplier while acknowledging his scoring upside.

Armen Petrosyan vs. Rodolfo Vieira

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Armen Petrosyan-110 $15 6' 3"71"2.943.67
Rodolfo Vieira-110 $15 6' 0"73"-1.483.96

UFC's matchmaking team got one person bigger earlier this month; I'm wondering if it produced this gem.

This is as "striker vs. grappler" as it gets. Rodolfo Vieira is a multi-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with four UFC wins -- all by submission. Armen Petrosyan has compiled a +2.94 SSR in UFC against elite competition with a really solid 52% striking accuracy and 56% striking defense. They'll battle in Sāo Paulo on Saturday.

In each other's domains, both have badly struggled. Vieira's 48% striking defense is mediocre at best, and he was dropped by Cody Brundage in his last fight before rallying with yet another sub. His -1.48 SSR was most notably victimized by Chris Curtis, who posted a +23 striking differential and defended all 20 (!) takedown attempts in that one.

As for Petrosyan, he's got a horrid 36% takedown defense and was controlled by Caio Borralho for 10:09 of 15 minutes during his only UFC loss. Strikers like AJ Dobson and Gregory Rodrigues landed at least a pair of takedowns against him, too. He's yet to show submission vulnerability, but Vieira should test that in earnest.

Ultimately, Petrosyan's power is the decided element to me in this fight. His knockdown rate (0.26%) is actually quite low, and if he doesn't have the power to starch the BJJ black belt, Vieira should be able to find his legs and control quite a bit of this fight.

I see Vieira as a better version of Borralho at this point, so I'm expecting a similar result.

Betting Verdict

  • My model's assesment on this fight is hilarious, giving a near-zero chance Vieira is the better striker with a near-zero chance Petrosyan is the better grappler. As they meet with Petrosyan's lack of power, I've got Vieira at -135.
  • Petrosyan's lack of power and excellent submission defense thus far also rendered a surprise outcome on the total, projecting the fight to go the distance 63.0% of the time. That outcome is +172 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DFS Verdict

  • If Vieira is in control but doesn't find a finish, this could be a hideous fight in DFS, but Rodolfo ($15) has the most finishing upside when I've got him pegged with a 27.3% chance to win by submission.

Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Caio Borralho-300 $19 5' 10"75"0.732.84
Abus Magomedov+235 $12 6' 2"78"-2.793.98

I wish this fight was on a full camp for both guys, but Abus Magomedov is stepping in on short notice to get a signature win over Caio Borralho. We'll see if he can do it.

Borralho is arguably one of UFC's top overall prospects. On top of surging to four straight wins to start his career, he's also sent several other members of his "Fighting Nerds" camp to the UFC in recent months, and they fight with the intelligence and gameplanning you'd expect from such a name.

Caio's lone operation has been on the ground so far, posting 2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 66% accuracy. He just scored his first win by submission on his third attempt in his last bout against Michal Oleksiejczuk. Landing just 2.59 significant strikes per minute, we've yet to seen him resigned to distance.

Magomedov will try to force him to do just that. Abus actually took the first round off this division's champion, Sean Strickland, in his last bout with a +21 striking differential. He also landed a takedown on two attempts, but that high pace melted him, and he was finished in the second round. Energy management is a lesson that can be learned, but we've also never seen Magomedov defend a UFC takedown -- a harrowing prospect against Borralho.

The short notice is also scary, but I don't see Borralho as Superman. Against Makhmud Muradov, Borralho allowed two takedowns on two attempts and was controlled for 4:44 of the fight. Many of his signature efforts have come against poor grapplers, but if Magomedov is able to simply float above that label, you'd have to give him the edge as a striker. His 50% striking accuracy and 57% striking D through a meeting with the champion -- win or loss -- are sensational.

Magomedov took this fight late, and I think it's because he sees Borralho as a one-dimensional guy that can be beaten. Personally, the +235 moneyline on him is way too wide when Borralho has only separated against historically terrible grapplers.

Betting Verdict

  • I'll end up firing at Abus' moneyline knowing there's absolutely a path where he gasses out and falters. Borralho's lone foe with a takedown D better than 60% (Muradov) took him to the brink. I can project Magomedov in that area from his regional work.
  • If anything else, Borralho's moneyline will incentivize people to turn to his inside-the-distance prop (+105), which might create value on this fight's total. Over 2.5 rounds is +124; I don't mind that proposition.

DFS Verdict

  • If Borralho's early-career trend of decisions holds, Magomedov ($12) will be the side of this fight you want regardless. There are several fighters heavily expected to win inside the distance.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes

Heavyweight (265 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Rodrigo Nascimento-194 $18 6' 2"80"-0.403.45
Don'Tale Mayes+156 $13 6' 6"81"-0.342.39

UFC loves to re-rack rematches no one asked for, and this another one of those.

Rodrigo Nascimento submitted Don'Tale Mayes in the second round of their first fight back in 2020, which came shortly after the COVID break. The ups-and-downs of their respective careers have brought them back to a rematch in 2023, but I'm not expecting much to change.

Since that bout, "Yogi Bear" Nascimento was one of Chris Daukaus' early knockout victims, but he's since rattled off three straight wins over Alan Baudot (0-4 UFC), Tanner Boser (5-5 UFC), and Ilir Latifi (9-7 UFC) back in May. The knockout is always a risk with a 40% striking defense, but he's actually one of heavyweight's better grapplers, posting 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41% accuracy. He's also added 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes when Mayes was his last victory by sub.

Mayes knocked out 44-year-old Andrei Arlovski in his last bout, and his other statement was a ground-and-pound finish of Josh Parisian (2-4 UFC). He's also lost decisions to Hamdy Abdelwahab (1-0 UFC) and Augusto Sakai (5-4 UFC) since the bout with Nascimento.

The question here is if Mayes has improved considerably in the grappling to withstand Nascimento's submission danger, but even then, I wouldn't favor "King Kong". Nascimento lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute to Mayes' 3.39 when both have sub-40% striking defenses and questionable chins.

This is heavyweight, and anything can happen, which is why I assume Mayes' number is decently short, but Nascimento is the better fighter in both areas to me. I've always liked Mayes' tools, but he's rarely put them to good use.

Betting Verdict

  • These two have stuck around long enough to model, and I'm right in line with FanDuel. I've got Nascimento at -205 to win; they've got him at -194.
  • Interestingly, these two have been on a run with plenty of decisions since the first meeting. I've got this fight at -185 to go the distance, so I sense obvious value compared to the +126 odds at FanDuel that likely are safeguarding against heavyweight's historical trends.

DFS Verdict

  • This is yet another card with several heavy favorites, so Nascimento ($18) comes at a mid-range salary after putting up 111.2 FanDuel points in their full meeting. Expecting a decision, I'd project under that mark but still prefer him as a side.

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Gabriel Bonfim-600 $22 6' 1"72"1.287.97
Nicolas Dalby+420 $9 5' 11"74"0.542.86

There's a reason Gabriel Bonfim has this co-main event slot in Brazil. He's arguably their hottest prospect aspiring of a title in a division that's got enough uncertainty to buy his chances.

Bonfim has blasted through three UFC winners to find first-round finishes in three UFC-affiliated appearances. Even his DWCS appearance against Trey Waters (1-0 UFC) has aged incredibly well after Waters' win in April on short notice. He's amassed a +1.28 SSR with an untouchable 66% striking defenses as a striker, and his grappling has been even better. He's yet to have been stuffed on two takedown attempts, and the quick finishes have led to an absurd rate of 7.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

I'd have sample size questions if I wasn't looking to sell Nicolas Dalby already, but UFC is apparently in the same boat as me. "Danish Dynamite" has pointed his way to three straight decisions, but none of the performances were particularly special. He's amassed a +0.54 SSR overall and struggled to wrestle (31% takedown accuracy). My largest fear for him here is a 62% takedown D that isn't particularly stout.

There's an argument to be had whether or not Trevin Giles (7-5 UFC) was a tougher test in Bonfim's last bout. Giles has three UFC finishes to Dalby's zero. As the largest favorite on the card, this matchup appears to be more about propping up one of São Paulo's brightest stars than finding him a competitive bout.

Betting Verdict

  • I can't even model Bonfim in a way that would make any sense due to just 6:15 in total octagon time. I could take issue with his 37% striking accuracy, but Dalby's (43%) is low for this division, too.
  • Dalby's only loss by finish in 11 UFC fights came via knockout, and Bonfim enters off three straight submissions. I actually think that has his KO prop (+260) undervalued in this spot.
    • If submissions are defended, guys will hammer away instead.

DFS Verdict

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis

Heavyweight (265 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

Fighter
Odds (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
FanDuel Salary
Height
Reach
Striking Success Rate (SSR)
FanDuel Points Per Minute (excl. bonuses)
Jailton Almeida-520 $23 6' 3"79"3.515.68
Derrick Lewis+370 $14 6' 3"79"0.011.80

Thankfully, we saved the easiest fight to preview for last.

Jailton Almeida has surged up heavyweight's ranks as one of its few -- if not truly only -- submission specialists. Rodrigo Nascimento would be another, but he is willing to play at distance much more. Almeida has posted 6.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with 68% accuracy, and he's put forth 2.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes against unskilled foes. This division has several fighters that just can't grapple at all.

The lone drama in this fight is whether or not Derrick Lewis can do it again. Lewis' patented style is not hard to decipher at this point; "The Black Beast" is UFC's most famous knockout-or-bust proposition. He's scored 14 UFC knockouts behind a 1.51% knockdown rate in an enormous sample, but he's also been finished himself in four of his last six bouts.

Lewis used a surprise flying knee to dispatch Marcos Rogerio de Lima in July, but Rogerio de Lima was favored because he did have grappling skills to squish Lewis if the fight was prolonged. Almeida's 25% striking D in a laughably small sample is a bit concerning, but he's only absorbed 0.30 significant strikes per minute because his technique has been perfect to avoid damage to this stage.

This wouldn't be the first time Derrick Lewis got me with a surprise, fortunate knockout, but it's overwhelmingly not the outcome to expect in this one. Almeida might be vulnerable against a more well-rounded heavyweight like Jon Jones or Tom Aspinall, but Lewis is but a powerful speed bump for him -- similar to the one he cleared against Jairzinho Rozenstruik in May.

Betting Verdict

  • My model almost always shows value on huge underdogs just by baking in historical upsets, but it still has got Almeida at 75.1% likely to win this fight. His odds imply an 84.1% chance, and I wouldn't lay the juice against Derrick Lewis, either. You're asking for trouble.
    • Almeida is +100 in my model to win by submission, and he's +340 to win by knockout. Compare that to the -120 and +220 odds, respectively, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • Lewis' odd, sloppy decisions in the distant past add a bit of ambiguity to the total. I've got this fight at -460 to finish inside the distance, but it's not even available to bet on FanDuel Sportsbook due to the immense odds it ends early, and I concur with that judgment.

DFS Verdict

  • Almeida ($23) has an extremely high ceiling in a fight that's -340 to end in the first two rounds. I believe we end Saturday's card with its best MVP candidate.
  • He's not foolproof, though. We've seen Lewis ($14) pop for huge upsets with big FanDuel outings, and his salary is elevated to guard against that proposition. It would be pretty stunning to me given Almeida's previous history of avoiding danger.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.