Touchdown Regression: Which Tight Ends Should Score More and Less in 2025?

Each and every year, I dig into expected touchdown numbers to help identify which players should score more (or less) often in an upcoming NFL season based on historical data.

This helps inform fantasy football and sports betting decisions for me, personally, because the math tends to win out in the long-term when it comes to touchdown variance.

This year, I went ahead and foregrounded all the usual ins and outs of touchdown regression, and now I can get right to the application for this year's crop of tight ends.

So, using various stats for TEs from the 2024 season, here's a breakdown of who should score more (and less) frequently on a per-target basis in 2025.

Tight End Regression Candidates for 2025

This is a look at all TEs (with at least 20 targets), their receiving touchdown total, their expected touchdown (xTD) number, the differential between the two -- as well as touchdown rate, xTD rate, and the difference as measured by TD or xTD per target.

Tight Ends Who Should Score More Often in 2025

Trey McBride

It was always going to be Trey McBride, who racked up 111 catches on 147 targets for 1,146 yards (all second-best marks at the position in 2024).

McBride scored only twice through the air (and once on the ground, which isn't factored into the numbers here), but it took until his final two games to score a receiving touchdown.

He had a strong red zone role (22 targets, second at the position) and actually led the position in expected touchdowns over Brock Bowers at 7.7.

Although that number may feel low, only 10 tight ends have had double-digit scores since 2016, and only 28 had more than 8 (around 3.1 per season). And that's with the knowledge that they overachieved their expected scoring rate that season.

McBride is the biggest TD underachiever among the position since 2016, per my database.

Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce has a bit more going for him still than a possible engagement announcement with Taylor Swift.

Albeit a distant third behind McBride and Bowers among TEs, Kelce was third in targets (133) and catches (97) and still went for 823 yards (fifth at the position).

He scored just three times, though, despite a position-high 26 red zone targets.

numberFire's fantasy football projections anticipate a similar year for Kelce by volume: 122.0 targets, 89.2 catches, 818.4 yards -- but 6.5 touchdowns (in line with his xTD number from last year of 6.7).

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson failed to find the end zone on any of his 62 targets. He logged 455 receiving yards and had 9 red zone targets despite a limited workload across 10 games.

Only four tight ends since 2016 have gone over 450 yards without scoring (notably, Jake Ferguson also qualifies from this past season).

The two prior were Cole Kmet in 2021 (he scored 7 times on 69 targets the next year) and Tyler Conklin in 2023 (he scored 4 times on 72 targets the following season).

Hockenson is projected for 125.3 targets, 826.8 yards, and 6.2 touchdowns this year, per numberFire.

Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry finished the year fifth in targets at the position (97) and eighth in yards (674). He scored only twice.

I know we need to account for efficiency differences, but Henry had 18 red zone targets -- 2 more than Mark Andrews, who scored 11 times.

Ultimately, Henry's high-leverage workload led to a scoring discrepancy of -3.2 TDs.

Henry is projected for a bit of a workload dip by numberFire (63.9 targets, 42.6 catches, 439.4 yards, and 2.8 touchdowns).

Consensus projections have him at 3.9 scores on 55.0 catches.

Tight Ends Who Should Score Less Often in 2025

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews could've been the poster boy for this article, as he was as easy a regression candidate to flag as was McBride.

Andrews scored 11 times last year, pacing the position and tying for third-most among TEs since 2016. Reminder, only 10 TEs have had 10-plus scores in a year since 2016.

Of those 10, Andrews ranked 9th in targets, 9th in catches, 8th in yards, and 8th in red zone targets.

Notably, Andrews actually had a 10-score year in 2019. He followed it up with a seven-score season.

Tucker Kraft

Tucker Kraft flirted with some rare air last year with 7 scores on just 70 targets, good for a touchdown-per-target rate (TD%) of, well, 10.0%.

Only eight tight ends have had a double-digit TD% on 70-plus targets since 2016. Six of the eight had a follow-up season with at least 50 targets.

All six saw their TD% drop the next year.

They fell by an average of 5.8 percentage points and averaged just 4.3 scores the next season.

numberFire projects Kraft for 3.9 scores over 66.0 targets.

Jonnu Smith
Pat Freiermuth

While playing for different teams last year, both Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth overachieved as TD scorers.

Smith went for 8 scores on 884 yards, 111 touchdowns, and 88 catches in a big year for the Miami Dolphins.

Freiermuth had a line of 78 targets, 65 catches, 653 yards, and 7 touchdowns with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

They were each top 12 in red zone targets, and in a new-look Pittsburgh offense, there's enough uncertainty about workload to question the scoring potential for this duo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.