Touchdown Regression: Which Running Backs Should Score More and Less in 2025?

Each and every year, I dig into expected touchdown numbers to help identify which players should score more (or less) often in an upcoming NFL season based on historical data.

This helps inform fantasy football and sports betting decisions for me, personally, because the math tends to win out in the long-term when it comes to touchdown variance.

This year, I went ahead and foregrounded all the usual ins and outs of touchdown regression, and now I can get right to the application for this year's crop of running backs.

So, using various stats for RBs from the 2024 season, here's a breakdown of who should score more (and less) frequently on a per-target basis in 2025.

Running Back Regression Candidates for 2025

This is a look at all RBs (with at least 30 opportunities -- carries plus targets), their scrimmage touchdown total, their expected touchdown (xTD) number, the differential between the two -- as well as touchdown rate, xTD rate, and the difference as measured by TD or xTD per opportunity.

Running Backs Who Should Score More Often in 2025

Aaron Jones
Jordan Mason

Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason will now be sharing the Minnesota Vikings backfield, and both have top-35 average draft positions (ADPs, per FantasyPros).

Last year, Jones played in all 17 games and racked up 1,546 scrimmage yards (seventh among all RBs) but scored only 5 total times despite an xTD total of 11.9, 8th-best at the position.

Jones was 15th in red zone carries, so he does run the risk of losing out goal-line work, especially to the 223-pound Mason.

Specifically as a rusher, Jones had 5 scores with 8.4 xTDs.

Jones, per numberFire's fantasy football projections, is projected for 7.8 scrimmage scores with 5.5 rushing TDs.

Mason finished with 880 scrimmage yards in just 12 games with only 3 scores despite 6.0 xTD and was heavily featured in the red zone while with the San Francisco 49ers.

Mason is projected for 6.1 total scores.

Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne had a pretty forgettable 2024 season: 812 scrimmage yards in 15 games on 202 opportunities. He scored just twice -- each of the first two weeks of the season.

He was blanked thereafter.

Etienne maxed out at 68 rushing yards in a game last year, as well.

Etienne's red zone role wasn't anything substantial in 2024 (he was 35th among RBs in red zone opportunity share at 25.5%), and Tank Bigsby should remain a problem.

But even still, Etienne's workload was indicative of more than just two touchdowns.

numberFire projects Etienne for 4.6 rushing TDs and 1.5 receiving scores for a total of 6.1 TDs.

Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren found the end zone only once last season despite 821 scrimmage yards and 167 opportunities -- similar outputs to Mason and Etienne.

Warren's 17.0% red zone opportunity share was good for just 50th among RBs in 2024, yet he should've scored 4.2 times, per the math. Even models based more on field location than output have him between 3.6 and 4.3 scores.

Warren, via numberFire's fantasy football projections, is projected for 6.3 scores with rookie Kaleb Johnson taking over as Warren's backfield mate.

Bucky Irving

Bucky Irving's 2024 breakout could've been even better if he had scored at a more appropriate rate.

Irving did score eight times, yet that was still down from 9.9 xTD based on the math.

Irving's projection is -- once again -- 9.9 touchdowns, per numberFire, including 8.1 on the ground.

Last year, Irving had a 29.8% red zone opportunity share, good for 24th among all RBs.

After a Week 11 bye (and excluding a limited Week 14), Irving's red zone opportunity share was up to 35.9%, which would've been a top-15 rate a year ago across the full season.

Running Backs Who Should Score Less Often in 2025

James Cook

An inescapable reality when looking at RB overachievers by volume is that it's high-usage players on efficient offenses who were able to score at an above-expectation rate. That's just how the math works. Players get over the hump in scoring variance in a given year as their teams play at a high level.

That was the case for James Cook for sure.

Now, what's interesting here is that, Cook was a regression candidate entering last season.

In 2023, he scored 6 times on 291 opportunities (2.1%)

In 2024, he scored 18 times on 245 opportunities (7.3%).

Now, he's a key regression candidate to take a step back in the TD column.

Cook still had 11.3 xTDs last season -- ranking 13th among all RBs. Why that low?

Well, Cook was actually just 21st in scrimmage yards, and his red zone opportunity share (34.0%) ranked 18th among the position.

Going back to that 7.3% TD per opportunity rate, Cook is one of four RBs to surpass a 7.0% mark on 200+ opportunities since 2016.

Two of the four -- James Conner in 2023 and Alvin Kamara in 2021 -- followed it up with a 200-plus opportunity season: they scored 8 and 9 times, respectively, the next season.

nF projects Cook for 8.0 rushing TDs and 9.4 total scores.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Jahmyr Gibbs led all RBs with 19 scrimmage touchdowns a year ago and was 5th in xTDs (13.2).

Gibbs (32.5% red zone opportunity share) split a lot of red zone work with David Montgomery (29.0%), but Gibbs and the Detroit Lions were efficient, and they led the league in red zone trips (72).

That allowed Gibbs to rank tied for third in red zone opportunities (67).

numberFire's model is still very bullish on Gibbs and the Lions.

Gibbs is projected for 12.6 rushing TDs and 3.4 rushing TDs for 16.1 total scores. That's a lot -- but it's still fewer than 19 from last year.

Derrick Henry

Also scoring 18 times like James Cook did in 2024 was Derrick Henry, who had a 16-to-2 rushing-to-receiving split a year ago.

Henry was ninth among RBs in red zone opportunity share (39.9%) last season while playing in the league's top offense by adjusted efficiency in 2024.

Henry's touchdown prop is massive at 12.5 this season.

numberFire's model projects Henry for a league-high 13.7 rushing TDs in 2025. Adding in 0.5 receiving scores, a 14.2-touchdown season for Henry would both still be great but be nearly a full four scores worse than his 2024 regular-season output.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.