Thunder vs. Nuggets Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 18

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Info

• Date: Sunday, May 18, 2025
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: ABC

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 8.5-point favorites heading into a decisive Game 7 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center on Sunday, beginning at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The series is tied 3-3. The over/under for the matchup is set at 214.5.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (74.6%)

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Thunder have registered a 54-26-2 record against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
• This season, Thunder games have hit the over 44 times.
• The Nuggets have hit the over 59.8% of the time this year (49 of 82 games with a set point total).
• Oklahoma City has done a better job covering the spread in home games (29-12-1) than it has in road games (25-14-1).
• In terms of over/unders, the Thunder hit the over more often in home games, as they've eclipsed the total 25 times in 42 opportunities this season (59.5%). In road games, they have hit the over 19 times in 40 opportunities (47.5%).
• Denver has been better against the spread on the road (20-20-1) than at home (18-23-0) this season.
• Looking at the over/under, Nuggets games have gone over 26 of 41 times at home (63.4%), and 23 of 41 on the road (56.1%).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists, shooting 51.9% from the floor and 37.5% from downtown, with 2.1 made treys per contest.
• Jalen Williams averages 21.6 points, 5.3 boards and 5.1 assists.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists. At the other end, he averages 0.8 steals and 1.1 blocked shots.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 3.9 boards and 1.8 assists, shooting 48.8% from the floor and 38.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.7 made treys per contest.
• Luguentz Dort averages 10.1 points, 4.1 boards and 1.6 assists, shooting 43.5% from the floor and 41.2% from downtown, with 2.4 made treys per contest.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 29.6 points for the Nuggets, plus 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists.
• The Nuggets get 21.4 points per game from Jamal Murray, plus 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists.
• Michael Porter Jr.'s numbers on the season are 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per contest. He is draining 50.4% of his shots from the field and 39.5% from 3-point range, with an average of 2.5 triples.
• Christian Braun's numbers on the season are 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He is draining 58% of his shots from the field (eighth in NBA) and 39.7% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.1 treys.
• Russell Westbrook averages 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is draining 44.9% of his shots from the floor and 32.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.3 treys per game.

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