Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 27

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Info

• Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: ESPN, ALT, and FDSOK

The Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) host the Denver Nuggets (37-22) in a matchup of Northwest Division teams at Paycom Center, beginning at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, February 27, 2026. The Nuggets are 8.5-point underdogs in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The point total for the matchup is set at 233.5.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (73.1%)

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 31-28-1 against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets have played 59 games, with 33 wins against the spread.
• This season, 34 of the Thunder's games have gone over the point total out of 59 chances.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the point total 37 times in 59 opportunities (62.7%).
• Oklahoma City has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than road games. It has covered 15 times in 31 games at home, and it has covered 16 times in 29 games when playing on the road.
• The Thunder have exceeded the total less often at home, hitting the over in 15 of 31 home matchups (48.4%). In away games, they have hit the over in 19 of 29 games (65.5%).
• Denver's winning percentage against the spread at home is .481 (13-14-0). Away, it is .625 (20-12-0).
• Nuggets games have gone above the over/under less frequently at home (15 times out of 27) than on the road (22 of 32) this season.

Thunder Leaders

• Chet Holmgren averages 17.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists, shooting 55.2% from the field and 35.2% from beyond the arc, with 1.2 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Cason Wallace is averaging 8.9 points, 3.2 boards and 2.6 assists. Defensively, he averages 2.1 steals (first in league) and 0.3 blocked shots.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 10.7 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists, shooting 64.5% from the field.
• Isaiah Joe is averaging 10.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Defensively, he averages 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocked shots.
• Aaron Wiggins is averaging 10.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Defensively, he averages 1 steal and 0.5 blocked shots.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic is averaging 28.8 points, 12.5 boards and 10.4 assists for the Nuggets.
• Jamal Murray's numbers on the season are 25.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. He is making 48.3% of his shots from the floor and 42.1% from beyond the arc, with an average of 3.1 triples (ninth in league).
• The Nuggets are getting 13.9 points, 2.6 boards and 1.3 assists per game from Tim Hardaway Jr.
• Bruce Brown averages 7.7 points, 4 rebounds and 2.2 assists. He is draining 46.4% of his shots from the floor.
• Per game, Jonas Valanciunas gets the Nuggets 9 points, 5.2 boards and 1.3 assists, plus 0.3 steals and 0.6 blocks.

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