Thunder vs. Mavericks: Series Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
Thunder vs. Mavericks: Series Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props

And then there were eight. After the conclusion of the first round on Sunday, the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs are officially down to the final eight teams.

The Oklahoma City Thunder booked their place in the Western Conference Semifinals with a first-round sweep of the New Orleans Pelicans. The Thunder were favored in that series, but the sweep was still an impressive result for a young team with almost no postseason experience.

The Dallas Mavericks advanced to the second round with a 4-2 series win over the Los Angeles Clippers -- elevating their game after a 2-2 start to secure a 30-point victory in Game 5 and a 13-point win in Game 6. The result was a continuation of Dallas' late-season momentum, which saw them win 16 of their final 20 regular-season games.

Now, the Thunder and Mavericks will clash with a spot in the Western Conference Finals on the line. In a wide open West, where all four remaining teams have +330 odds or better to advance to the NBA Finals, the stakes are extremely high.

Let's take a look at the NBA playoff series odds offered by FanDuel Sportsbook for Thunder-Mavericks, which begins with Game 1 in Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 7th at 9:30 p.m. ET.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Thunder vs. Mavericks Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction

  • numberFire Prediction:
    • Thunder To Make Conference Finals: 82.6%
    • Mavericks To Make Conference Finals: 17.4%
  • ESPN Prediction:
    • Thunder To Make Conference Finals: 60.0%
    • Mavericks To Make Conference Finals: 40.0%
  • Opta Analyst Prediction:
    • Thunder To Make Conference Finals: 76.2%
    • Mavericks To Make Conference Finals: 23.8%
  • Basketball-Reference Prediction:
    • Thunder To Make Conference Finals: 80.2%
    • Mavericks To Make Conference Finals: 19.8%

Thunder vs. Mavericks Player Props

Most Total Points:

Most Total Rebounds:

Most Total Assists:

  • Luka Doncic: -900
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: +1200
  • Kyrie Irving: +1200
  • Jalen Williams: +3600

Most Total Made Threes:

Team vs. Team Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

  • Thunder:
    • nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
    • Pace: 100.8 (5th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 46-35-1
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 34.1% (16th) - 65.1% (8th)
      • Mid: 27.5% (24th) - 46.4% (4th)
      • 3PT: 38.3% (18th) - 38.8% (1st)
  • Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
    • Pace: 104.4 (8th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34-0
    • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
      • Rim: 30.1% (30th) - 67.3% (3rd)
      • Mid: 25.8% (14th) - 44.7% (9th)
      • 3PT: 44.1% (2nd) - 36.9% (13th)

Thunder vs. Mavericks Analysis

Get your popcorn ready -- this is going to be a fun series.

In the Thunder and the Mavericks, this series features two sides that finished the regular season ranked inside the top seven in adjusted offensive rating (aORTG) and inside the top eight in pace. Both squads feature young, elite playmakers looking to take the next steps in their journeys toward legendary status.

For Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, this is a chance to validate the Thunder's regular season success and prove that their time isn't coming soon, it's already here. For Luka Doncic, this is an opportunity to reach his second conference finals and bolster a postseason resume that hasn't matched his success in the regular season. There's still a long ways to go for both teams, but legacies are already on the line in this one.

Thanks to their elite defense, the Thunder are the more complete team. Their 111.5 adjusted defensive rating (aDRTG) ranked fourth, and they held the Pelicans to just 89.5 points per game in Round 1 -- the lowest mark in the playoffs. Oklahoma City was one of only two teams to rank inside the top five in both aORTG and aDRTG in the regular season; the other was the Boston Celtics. If it wasn't for OKC's lack of experience, their would be less uncertainty around Oklahoma City's postseason outlook -- on paper, they are the second-best team in the league.

So, the question is -- how much will OKC's inexperience impact them? So far, on defense, it hasn't impacted them at all. On offense, they scored just 105.3 points per game in their series against the Pelicans, which ranks 10th among playoff teams. New Orleans ranked sixth in aDRTG this season, so it wasn't an easy matchup, but it was a 15.3 points below OKC's regular season average. Against Dallas, the Thunder's defense will face a tougher test, and their scoring will almost certainly need to improve.

For Dallas, the question centers on defense. After allowing 115.6 points per game in the regular season (20th) the Mavericks have up only 100.3 points per game against the Clippers -- fifth-best among playoff teams. Their 109.5 defensive rating in Round 1 ranked sixth, an improvement from the regular season when they ranked 18th (114.9). The Thunder won the regular season series between these two sides 3-1 while averaging 124.5 points per game. To contend with a more well-rounded Thunder team, the Mavericks will have to maintain their improved play on defense.

I believe that Thunder are the better team and that the moment will not be too big for them. All four of the predictions listed above are showing value on OKC to win the series. At -120, their implied odds (54.55%) are well below numberFire's prediction (86.2%).

The Thunder had the second-best adjusted net rating (+6.8) in the regular season, significantly above Dallas' (+2.2). The Mavericks are playing their best basketball at the right time, but with home-court advantage on OKC's side, I like the Thunder's chances of overcoming their lack of experience more than Dallas' chances of maintaining their elevated defensive efficiency.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.