NBA

Thunder vs. Mavericks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

Following a no-show in Game 1 in a 117-95 loss, the Dallas Mavericks have responded in a big way by winning back-to-back games against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Entering Game 4, Dallas now leads 2-1 and is -220 to win the series when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds.

The Mavericks are slight 1.5-point favorites for tonight's game. With a win, this series would nearly be wrapped up. Teams who take a 3-1 series lead have an all-time 95.4% series winning percentage. Can the Thunder knot this series with an upset win?

The Denver Nuggets-Minnesota Timberwolves series has taught us a big lesson. Despite trailing 2-0, the Nuggets won consecutive games on the road to tie the series at 2-2. The home advantage is not the end all be all; Oklahoma City is certainly capable of getting it done away from home.

Let's jump into tonight's matchup. What do the odds look like, and what could be the best bet?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Thunder-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: Monday, May 13th at 9:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Mavericks -1.5 (-108)

Total: 215.5

Moneyline:

  • Thunder: +100
  • Mavericks: -118

Thunder vs. Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

  • Thunder:
    • nERD: 73.1 (2nd)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (3rd)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.5 (4th)
    • Pace: 100.8 (5th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 46-35-1
  • Mavericks:
    • nERD: 57.1 (12th)
    • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
    • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
    • Pace: 100.4 (8th)
    • Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34

Thunder vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Mavericks -1.5 (-108)

We've seen two trends ring true in every game of this series. Whoever has won the rebounding battle and attempted the most free throws has won all three contests. The victor also corralled the most offensive boards. The Mavs have won each category over their last two wins. Will they continue to win these clashes, leading to another victory?

During the regular season, Dallas was among the bottom 10 in offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, but they've drastically improved in this category during the playoffs -- especially the offensive glass as the Mavericks have thrived with the third-highest offensive rebounding percentage in the postseason.

Rebounding was one of OKC's weaknesses ahead of the playoffs as they had the third-lowest offensive and defensive rebounding percentages during the regular season. It hasn't been much better in the postseason as the Thunder have the fourth-lowest defensive rebounding percentage and the fifth-lowest offensive rebounding percentage. Their struggles on the defensive glass are especially concerning since the Mavericks have gathered 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last two.

Free throw shooting is another advantage that looks sustainable for the Mavs. They took the ninth-most free throw attempts per game in the regular season while Oklahoma City gave up the eighth-most shots from the charity stripe. The Thunder were also in the bottom half of free throw shots attempted each contest.

About 61% of the public is taking Dallas against the spread (ATS). I'm rolling with the majority by taking the home favorite to cover. In addition to everything I just said, I have one major reason for taking the Mavericks: they've gotten underwhelming production from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving thus far in the series.

Luka (36.6%) and Kyrie (28.4%) led the team in usage rate during the regular season, and this has continued in the playoffs (32.7% for Luka and 23.8% for Kyrie). Yet, Doncic has averaged only 23.3 points per game (PPG) with a 42.1% field goal percentage (FG%) this series while Irving has totaled 17.0 PPG. Luka (33.9 PPG) and Kyrie (25.6 PPG) generated much more scoring during the regular season.

Doncic is questionable (knee), but he participated in shootaround, which suggests he will likely play tonight. PJ Washington has been a huge boost for the Mavs over the last two contests, totaling 28.0 PPG across Games 2 and 3. Sooner or later, Luka and Kyrie will likely wake up. Pair this with Washington's exceptional play, and the Mavs are looking very dangerous.

Washington, whose points prop is 14.5 for tonight, could be poised to keep shining as he has a matchup advantage in this series. Oklahoma City lacks some size as Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams are having trouble defending Washington. Plus, those two have the two highest defensive ratings for the postseason among OKC's starting lineup (103.7 for Giddey and 102.5 for Williams).

The rebounding advantage for Dallas cannot be overstated, either.

In my eyes, the Thunder are in deep trouble; the Mavericks have won two straight and are capable of playing even better due to Luka's and Kyrie's underwhelming play thus far. Give me the home favorite to cover the spread.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.