THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper

This week, the PGA Tour heads to McKinney, Texas for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch.

This is just the fourth time we'll see TPC Craig Ranch on Tour, and no golfer in the field is better than 20th in the Official World Golf Rankings.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

PGA Daily Fantasy

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Event Info

  • Recent Winning Scores: -23, -26, -25
  • Recent Cut Lines: -4, -5, -6

TPC Craig Ranch Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

  • Par: 71
  • Distance: 7,414 yards (long par 71)
  • Average Fairway Width: 37.1 yards (71st of 86 courses)
  • Average Green Size: 6,778 square feet (large)
  • Green Type: Bentgrass
  • Stimpmeter: 11.5

TPC Craig Ranch was played as a par 71 last year but a par 72 the first two years it was on Tour.

The scoring here is easy, and it's easy across the board in terms of key stats.

There's virtually nothing here this week to overthink.

Statistically, the stats that usually matter most (i.e. strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: putting) matter as much as usual.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson DFS Top Plays

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel daily fantasy golf salary. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the last 50 rounds unless otherwise noted. All betting odds come from the golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Daily Fantasy Studs

Alex Noren ($11,100 | +2500)

Alex Noren ranks in the top 30 in all three approach through putting stats over the last 50 rounds, and he is top 50 (43rd) in strokes gained: off the tee.

Only he and Jordan Spieth (the +1400 betting favorite) rank in the top 50 in all four strokes gained stats in that 50-round span, but Spieth's irons (46th) are well off the pace of Noren's (15th).

Noren's 63rd-percentile putting splits from within 15 feet suggest he could convert on birdie chances this week, and he'll need those birdies to win an event like this one.

Tom Hoge ($10,800 | +2800)

Tom Hoge rates out as the best iron player in the field for this week, and he's a top-10 putter, as well.

His biggest weakness (around-the-green play [115th]) will be a bit mitigated this week at such an easy course.

Hoge is one of 26 golfers to have played TPC Craig Ranch all three years it's hosted an event. He's finished cut, T17, and T43. The familiarity should go a long way for him this week toward converting on good form.

Others to Consider:

  • Jordan Spieth ($12,100 | +1400)
  • Si Woo Kim ($11,400 | +1600)
  • Tom Kim ($10,300 | +2800)

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Daily Fantasy Mid-Range Plays

Adam Schenk ($9,900 | +4000)

Schenk is an interesting candidate for this week because of his skillset, which shows him inside the top-30 in strokes gained: off the tee, around the green, and putting over the last 50 rounds on Tour.

He's 74th in approach, however, but it's about as neutral as it gets (-0.08 strokes gained: approach per round).

Schenk has played here all three years: T34, T79, missed cut (while striping the irons, weirdly enough).

With a T5 at the Valero Texas Open and a T12 at the Masters, Schenk has shown upside of late.

Mark Hubbard ($9,500 | +6000)

Mark Hubbard is short off the tee (120th in distance) but accurate (29th), and that works well enough this week even at a longer setup.

What's better is that he's going to get into birdie position (13th in strokes gained: approach) and has a good chance of making them (72nd-percentile putting splits from within 15 feet).

He's made both cuts at TPC Craig Ranch in his career (T34 in 2021 and T32 in 2022) while hitting his irons very well.

Others to Consider:

  • Mackenzie Hughes ($9,900 | +4000)
  • Doug Ghim ($9,400 | +7000)
  • Ben Griffin ($9,300 | +8000)

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Daily Fantasy Value Plays

Justin Lower ($8,600 | +9000)

Among golfers with a salary of $9,000 or lower, Lower has the highest win probability in my simulation model (1.0%). That's low -- but notable.

Lower ranks 21st in approach play over the last 50 rounds and is a moderate putter (42nd-percentile splits from within 15 feet).

Lower has finished T28 at the Houston Open, T25 at the Texas Open, and T4 at the Corales Puntacana Championship entering last week's team event.

Greyson Sigg ($8,700 | +11000)

Sigg is second among the value plays in my long-term strokes gained data -- behind just Lower -- and definitely fits the mold as a good ball-striker (27th in this field over the last 50 rounds).

The putting is weak (106th), and the underlying data isn't great (20th-percentile putting from within 15 feet), so that's definitely worth noting.

But, as far as upside goes in the value range, Sigg seems to have it. And without a lot of surefire value options, Sigg's ball-striking profile helps put him toward the top of the list.

Others to Consider:

  • Chan Kim ($8,800 | +8000)
  • Ryo Hisatune ($8,300 | +12000)
  • Jacob Bridgeman ($8,200 | +12000)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.