Sunday Night Football Preview: AFC East Title on the Line in Bills-Dolphins

The final edition of Sunday Night Football in the regular season is shaping up to be a titanic clash between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins.

This draws enough hype with both teams likely headed to the playoffs. The Bills have the second-shortest odds to win the AFC (+430) while the Dolphins have the third-shortest line to win the conference (+600), per FanDuel Sportbook's NFL conference odds.

As if this isn't good enough for a primetime matchup, there's obvious animosity in this AFC East rivalry, and the divisional title is on the line. Miami will clinch the AFC East with a win or tie while Buffalo needs a win to secure the division title. Of course, the AFC East winner will also have a significantly better seeding for the playoffs; the winner will clinch the No. 2 seed while the loser will get the No. 6 seed.

Week 18's SNF battle has plenty of stakes on the line that will have a big impact on the AFC playoff picture. This primetime treat to cap the regular season is reminiscent of the Detroit Lions against the Green Bay Packers battle last season -- in which the Lions eliminated the Packers from playoff contention.

Let's dig into the final Sunday Night Football matchup of the regular season by looking at FanDuel's NFL odds for the clash, followed by a breakdown of the high-stake divisional clash.

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 18 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Bills -2.5 (-115)
• Total: 48.5
• Moneyline:
  • Bills: -152
  • Dolphins: +128

Bills vs. Dolphins Week 18 Matchup Analysis

The Bills-Dolphins clash will feature elite matchups all over the field as both teams are among the top 11 in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offense and defense ratings. Stefon Diggs' potential matchup against one of football's best cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey figures to be a must-see one-on-one battle.

Ahead of Sunday's game, keep a close eye on Miami's injury report. The injury bug has had no mercy for the Fins ahead of the postseason. There is a long list of key players who are questionable; this includes almost the entire offensive line, with starters Terron Armstead, Liam Eichenberg, Robert Hunt, and Austin Jackson all questionable. The Dolphins are bound to be without some starting offensive linemen, which could be trouble against the Bills, who have the third-most sacks in the league (53.0) and ESPN's fourth-best pass rush win rate.

As if this wasn't concerning enough, running backs Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) and De'Von Achane (toe/ribs) are questionable. Mostert has missed several practices this week, but Achane has a more encouraging outlook after some limited appearances in practice. The star wideout duo of Tyreek Hill (ankle) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle) are also questionable. Hill is likely to play after returning to the team following a scary house fire, but Waddle's outlook does not look so good after he missed practices.

But wait, there's more! The injuries just keep on coming. Miami will be without cornerback Xavien Howard (foot), and safety Jevon Holland is questionable with a knee injury.

That's finally it on the Fins' notable injuries. Remember, their pass-rushing duo of Bradley Chubb (ACL) and Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) also sustained season-ending injuries. Sheesh, it's easy to see why the Bills are road favorites.

Buffalo is on the complete opposite end of the injury front as their entire current starting lineup is expected to go. Of course, this is not counting previous season-ending injuries such as linebacker Matt Milano.

Does Miami have any chance with their lengthy list of injuries? The Bills have the 6th-best mark in numberFire's defense ratings, including the 7th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense and the 15th-best run defense. Their weakness could be on the ground, and with the Fins' worries against Buffalo's pass rush, running the rock could make perfect sense.

Even if Mostert is absent, Miami would be in good hands with the rookie Achane, who has 25.6 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) on the season. Getting the run going could be the Dolphins' best bet for grabbing the win.

For Buffalo, they must avoid losing the turnover battle. Josh Allen has produced 0.06 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) over his last five games, but he has also thrown seven interceptions over his last seven games. Miami has the 12th-best mark in takeaways per contest and has recorded six interceptions in their last four games.

If the Bills stay close or win the turnover battle -- which I think is likely with Tua Tagovailoa coming off two picks coupled with Buffalo's pass-rush advantage -- they could win comfortably. The Fins have the ninth-best schedule-adjusted passing defense but could be missing Howard and Holland.

Additionally, Miami has the 12th-best adjusted run defense and ranks 14th in run stuff win rate. Buffalo averages the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the ninth-most yards per carry, and has the eighth-best mark in run block win rate.

The Bills could be on track for a cover while securing the AFC East title. The long list of injuries for the Dolphins is too much to overlook, especially for their offensive line and secondary.

Bills vs. Dolphins Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Josh Allen Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-120)

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins' run defense could be a bit susceptible on Sunday night. Buffalo has not been afraid to fully utilize Josh Allen's legs as he is averaging 8.6 carries per game, 39.2 rushing yards per contest, and 1.6 rushing touchdowns per game over the last five outings.

At -120, Allen recording another rushing touchdown could be a layup. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry while scampering into the end zone once against Miami in Week 4. The Fins give up 11th-most rushing touchdowns per game, and with linebackers David Long Jr. (knee) and Duke Riley (ankle) questionable, Miami could have a challenging time keeping the 6-foot-5, 237-pound QB under wraps.

Allen consistently gets work in the red zone, with 2.1 carries per game and a 33.0% red zone rushing share on the season. This has only gone up over his last four games as Allen is averaging 3.8 carries per contest with a 41.7% rushing share in the red zone.

If you're looking for more enticing odds, Allen is also +500 to record two any time touchdowns. He has reached two rushing touchdowns in three of the last five games. This could be worth a look.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114)

I'm not very high on Tua Tagovailoa for Sunday's matchup.

The Bills' passing defense has been excellent, allowing only 186.8 passing yards per game while reeling in 1.3 picks per game over the last six contests. Plus, opposing starting quarterbacks have posted negative EPA/DB marks in six straight contests versus the Bills. This goes hand in hand with Buffalo giving up the fifth-smallest EPA/DB at -0.16.

Tua has -0.01 EPA/DB over his previous four games (compared to 0.13 on the season). After Tua tossed two interceptions last week, more turnovers could be an issue as the Bills have the 7th-best opponent interception percentage while the Dolphins have the 13th-worst interception percentage.

Of course, we must also account for Buffalo's pass rush wreaking havoc. Considering all of Miami's offensive line issues this season, it's pretty amazing that the offense still leads the league in points and yards per game. Backup offensive linemen account of 47% the Fins' snaps, a number that may increase with four linemen questionable for Week 18.

The Bills have the third-best sack percentage in the NFL and are averaging 3.7 sacks per game over the previous three contests. If Tagovailoa is constantly badgered in the pocket, reaching two passing touchdowns will be a tall task.

Also, Tua has reached two passing touchdowns only once over his last four games.

Give me under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Miami's signal-caller.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.