SMU vs Miami (FL) College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for March 4

The SMU Mustangs (19-10, 8-8 ACC) will try to continue a three-game home win streak when they square off against the Miami Hurricanes (23-6, 12-4 ACC) on March 4, 2026 at Moody Coliseum.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

SMU vs. Miami (FL) Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
• Game time: 7 p.m. ET
• TV channel: ACC Network
• Location: Dallas, Texas
• Arena: Moody Coliseum

SMU vs. Miami (FL) Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: SMU win (59.3%)

Before making an informed wager on SMU-Miami (FL) outing (in which SMU is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is set at 160.5 points), below are some betting insights and trends for Wednesday's game.

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SMU vs. Miami (FL): ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• SMU has won 13 games against the spread this season, while failing to cover 16 times.
• Miami (FL) has won 16 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover 13 times.
• SMU covers the spread when it is a 1.5-point favorite or more 41.2% of the time. That's less often than Miami (FL) covers as an underdog of 1.5 or more (62.5%).
• The Mustangs have done a better job covering the spread in home games (8-9-0) than they have in road games (4-6-0).
• In 2025-26 against the spread, the Hurricanes have a lower winning percentage at home (.471, 8-9-0 record) than on the road (.778, 7-2-0).
• SMU's record against the spread in conference games is 7-9-0.
• Miami (FL) has eight wins against the spread in 16 ACC games this year.

SMU vs. Miami (FL): Moneyline Betting Stats

• SMU has won in 15, or 88.2%, of the 17 contests it has been named as the moneyline favorite in this year.
• The Mustangs have a win-loss record of 13-2 when favored by -134 or better by oddsmakers this year.
• Miami (FL) has been the moneyline underdog eight total times this season. Miami (FL) has gone 4-4 in those games.
• In games they have played as a moneyline underdog with odds of +112 or longer, the Hurricanes have a 2-4 record (winning only 33.3% of their games).
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies SMU has a 57.3% chance of walking away with the win.

SMU vs. Miami (FL) Head-to-Head Comparison

• SMU averages 85.8 points per game (18th in college basketball) while giving up 78.0 per outing (295th in college basketball). It has a +226 scoring differential overall and outscores opponents by 7.8 points per game.
• SMU's leading scorer, Kevin Miller, is 56th in the nation scoring 18.9 points per game.
• Miami (FL) outscores opponents by 12.7 points per game (posting 82.7 points per game, 47th in college basketball, and giving up 70.0 per contest, 76th in college basketball) and has a +367 scoring differential.
• Malik Reneau paces Miami (FL), putting up 19.2 points per game (49th in college basketball).
• The Mustangs are 62nd in the country at 34.3 rebounds per game. That's 3.6 more than the 30.7 their opponents average.
• Samet Yigitoglu leads the Mustangs with 7.8 rebounds per game (89th in college basketball play).
• The Hurricanes win the rebound battle by an average of 8.1 boards. They are collecting 34.8 rebounds per game (55th in college basketball) compared to their opponents' 26.7.
• Ernest Udeh Jr. tops the Hurricanes with 9.3 rebounds per game (23rd in college basketball).
• SMU averages 104.9 points per 100 possessions on offense (39th in college basketball), and allows 95.4 points per 100 possessions (188th in college basketball).
• The Hurricanes' 105.6 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 30th in college basketball, and the 89.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 50th in college basketball.

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