Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 21: Will the Blades Get a Much-Needed Win?

With the holiday season behind us, and the January transfer window open, the second half of the EPL season is underway.

Today, we will be looking at a portion of Matchweek 21 -- from Saturday to Monday. This stretch features five matches and is highlighted by a clash between Liverpool and Bournemouth.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting

Liverpool at Bournemouth (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Under 3.5 Goals (-152)

Bournemouth's impressive run of results ended with a 3-1 loss to Tottenham on December 31st. The defeat was their first since Matchweek 11 in early November, when they lost 6-1 to Manchester City. In between, the Cherries strung together seven completed matches without a loss, with six of those seven fixtures ending with a victory.

Bournemouth's campaign thus far has been a tale of two seasons -- before their winning streak started in November, they were winless in their first nine matches. The result is a team that sits 12th on the league table and ranks 13th in expected goal difference (xGD) per 90 (-0.23), per FBRef. 

The one constant in Bournemouth’s season has been their struggles against elite teams. They have picked up results against good teams, with wins over Newcastle and Manchester United and draws against Aston Villa and Chelsea, but they have struggled against the trio of Liverpool, Manchester City, and Arsenal.

On xGD per 90, those three teams are a clear cut above the rest in the league. All three are at or above +1.00. The next closest team, Chelsea, sits at +0.57. In their three games against that trio, the Cherries have three losses by a combined score of 2-13.

At full strength, we could have counted on Liverpool to force Bournemouth to pass a test they have failed three times already this season. With Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) ruled out, Mohamed Salah on international duty, and Dominik Szoboszlai (hamstring) questionable, Liverpool will not be at full strength.

The question then becomes -- without Alexander-Arnold and Salah, do the Reds still belong in that elite trio, or are they more likely to play like the sides Bournemouth has taken points from recently?

Alexander-Arnold's impact on Liverpool cannot be overstated. He ranks in at least the 98th percentile among fullbacks in assists per 90 (0.36), expected assisted goals (xAG) per 90 (0.34), non-penalty xG + xAG per 90 (0.42), shot-creating actions per 90 (4.61), passes completed per 90 (88.4), and progressive passes per 90 (8.05). Replacing his contributions with the unique role he plays will be extremely difficult.

Dominik Szoboszlai sits second on the Reds in progressive passes (115) behind only Alexander-Arnold (115), and Salah’s 14 goals are tied for most in the league.

It all amounts to a Liverpool side that enters this clash with plenty of uncertainty. That uncertainty, combined with Bournemouth’s struggles to find the back of the net against elite opposition this season, has me looking at the under in this one.

West Ham at Sheffield United (9:00 a.m. ET Sunday)

Sheffield United Moneyline (+240)

No team is overperforming their underlying metrics more than West Ham is so far this season. The Hammers sit in sixth on the league table despite an xGD per 90 of (-0.38) that ranks 16th.

They enter this fixture coming off a 1-0 loss to Bristol City in the FA Cup on Tuesday, a replay that was necessary after the two sides tied 1-1 on January 7th. Before that shocking result, West Ham had strung together a good run, with a draw and three wins in their last four EPL fixtures -- against Brighton, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Wolves.

West Ham’s xG metrics indicate that they were extremely fortunate to get the results they did. In their wins over Arsenal, Manchester United, and Wolves, they combined for a real-life scoreline of 7-0, but on xG, the combined scoreline was 3.7-3.4. Their 0-0 draw against Brighton finished 0.7-2.3 on xG. The Hammers have scored 33 goals from 27.7 xG this season and conceded 30 from 35.2 xG allowed.

The Hammers will also be without striker Mohammed Kudos, who is on international duty, and they could be without Jarrod Bowen (ankle). If Bowen is out, West Ham will be without their top four strikers and could be forced to start either Danny Ings or Divin Mubama, who have just two EPL starts combined this season.

Of course, even against a shorthanded West Ham, it can be difficult to trust a Sheffield United side that ranks last in xGD per 90 (-1.18) with 15 losses in 20 EPL fixtures.

It has not shown up in their results, but since a 5-0 loss to Burnley in early December, the Blades have been performing better. On xG, they played respectable matches against Liverpool (1.0-1.7 xG) and Aston Villa (0.6-0.9) and were unlucky to lose 3-2 to Luton Town in a game where they finished with a 2.4-0.6 edge in xG.

It is not much, but the Blades have also been a slightly better side at home this season, where three of their five results have come, including both their wins. Sheffield United has been the better side on xG in three of their last six home fixtures.

Overall, these two sides are much closer than their current standings on the table indicate. With Sheffield United playing at home with their usual starting 11 against a shorthanded West Ham, I like the Blades’ chances of earning their third win of the season.

Player Props

Bukayo Saka to Score (+185): Arsenal’s poor run of form has not slowed down Saka. He scored the Gunners’ only goal against Fulham and has 12 shots, with four on target, in Arsenal’s last two matches -- good for1.6 xG. With the Gunners in desperate need of a result and playing at home, I like Saka to score against a Crystal Palace side that has allowed at least 1.0 xG in each of their last seven EPL fixtures.

Joao Pedro to Score (+150): Pedro enters this weekend in excellent form -- totaling two goals, one assist, six shots, and four shots on target in his last two games combined. Wolves have won three in a row, but they are averaging 1.84 xG allowed per away match this season, with at least 2.0 xG conceded in six of their 10 road fixtures. Brighton rank fifth in xG at home (21.2) -- an average of 2.12 per home match.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.