Soccer

Premier League Betting Picks for Arsenal at Sheffield United (3/4/24)

Zack Bussiere
Zack Bussiere@ZackBussiere
Premier League Betting Picks for Arsenal at Sheffield United (3/4/24)

With all eyes on the EPL title race, Matchweek 27 delivered a narrow Liverpool win over Nottingham Forest on Saturday and a come-from-behind victory for Manchester City in Sunday’s Manchester derby. Now, it’s Arsenal’s turn.

Today, we will be looking at the final portion of Matchweek 27. Monday's slate features one match: Arsenal at Sheffield United.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this game?

EPL Betting

Arsenal at Sheffield United (3 p.m. ET Monday)

Arsenal -2.5 (+156)

Since the start of 2024, Arsenal’s only losses have come in the FA Cup (a 2-0 loss to Liverpool) and the Champions League (a 1-0 loss to Porto). They have been flawless in their six EPL fixtures, winning by a combined score of 25-3 from an expected goal (xG) total of 16.7-1.9 -- per FBRef's xG model.

During this stretch, the Gunners have been impressive on both sides of the ball. Their 2.8 xG/90 created in that time is more than half a goal higher than the current season-long xG/90 mark for Man City (2.22), the EPL leaders in xG/90. Arsenal are overperforming those lofty expected metrics, with 4.2 goals/90. On defense, their 0.32 xG allowed per 90 in that span is historically dominant -- despite a recent schedule that included games against Liverpool and Newcastle, Arsenal has not allowed more than 0.5 xG in an EPL fixture in 2024.

On the Gunners' current form, facing Arsenal is a challenging task for any team in the world. On Monday, that task falls to Sheffield United, who have just one win in their last 10 EPL fixtures. The Blades rank last in xG/90 created (0.91) and have allowed the second-most xG/90 (1.98). They also rank last in xG differential/90 (-1.07). Arsenal, meanwhile, rank first (+1.34).

Arsenal is on the road in this one, but that hasn’t held them back this season. They have the second-best xG differential/90 on the road (+1.00) while Sheffield’s xG differential/90 at home (-0.92) ranks last. The Gunners have won their last two away fixtures by sizable margins -- 5-0 at Burnley and 6-0 at West Ham.

There are a couple ways to approach this lopsided battle, but my preference is Arsenal -2.5 goals.

With Sheffield unlikely to score (-145 to score no goals), this bet likely comes down to the Gunners’ ability to score at least three goals. They have hit that mark in each of their last four matches and in five of their last six. The Blades have been held scoreless in three of their last four fixtures, and even if Sheffield United find the back of the net, Arsenal can score four or more goals, a number the Gunners have reached in each of their last three fixtures. In the reverse fixture back in October, the Gunners won 5-0.

Player Prop

Bukayo Saka to Score (+125): Saka has been central to Arsenal’s current run of form. He has a goal in five consecutive EPL fixtures and in six of his last seven, with seven total goals in his last five league matches. Over his last five matches, he is averaging 1.4 goals, 0.86 xG, 4.4 shots, and 1.4 shots on target per game.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.