One Bust to Avoid in Each Round of Your 2025 Fantasy Football Draft

Personally, the most crucial element of fantasy football is knowing who not to take.

While we obsess over "value" at average draft position (ADP) this time of year, your season isn't going to end because your WR2 is healthy, in the lineup, and producing at a WR3 level. You're going to lose your league because your second-round pick isn't getting the ball or is out for the season.

So, while I've written up a running back or a wide receiver to target in each round of your fantasy football draft, it's much more important for me to write up the landmine to avoid in each round. If you miss out on those RBs or WRs, your team could still ball out. Your late-round pick could be a gem. If you take these guys early, your season might be toast.

If you tuned in last year, you avoided quite a few landmines in 2024's piece except for Kyren Williams, who balled out from Round 2. My bad, Kyren.

Here's a list of guys I'm not touching with a 10-foot pole in any fantasy drafts. They're almost all popular names and players, so let out a chuckle if your leaguemates take them.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis of 12-player leagues was used to determine rounds in this piece.

One Bust to Avoid in Each Round of Fantasy Football Drafts

Round 1

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions (9.3 ADP)

One of my first pieces of the season was cautioning against the "easy" or "safe" selection of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

He's finished as the WR8, WR3, and WR3 on a total points basis with nearly pristine health, so there seems like minimal risk. However, Ben Johnson has captained the ship in Amon-Ra's entire tenure, and we know his slot-heavy role has been a unique one compared to other top wideouts in fantasy.

Quietly, St. Brown's fantasy points per game (15.6 PPG) and target share (27.4%) dropped in 2024. As former first-rounder Jameson Williams continues to demand looks, Sam LaPorta also probably gets closer to his 2023 target share (20.9%) than 2024 (17.1%) in the upcoming campaign.

"Sun God" also ran hot in the touchdown column last year for a Lions squad that likely doesn't have 7 more TDs (68 total) than any other team in the league again with Johnson gone. I think he tumbles outside the top-12 wideouts.

Round 2

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (19.0 ADP)

While this feels like the "easy" choice in Round 2, I will say Josh Jacobs' volume last season is a great concern for his health and effectiveness in 2025, too.

Jonathan Taylor just has significantly fewer answers to key questions about a running back in fantasy. My colleague Kenyatta Storin pointed out in Jonathan Taylor's fantasy football outlook that he was outside the top-25 qualifiers in yards after contact (2.68), missed tackles (36), and elusive rating (35.1) last season.

Then, you add in what everyone is probably too concerned about, which is working in an offense with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. Then, there's perhaps the factor not enough people are concerned about, which is 16 games missed over the last three seasons.

Indianapolis has a good offensive line and general ecosystem for a running back, but everything else is a red flag. I'd rather take a last-round flier on rookie DJ Giddens in the event Taylor were to miss time again.

Round 3

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (25.0 ADP)

I really don't want to be the guy carving out the niche role as the "Ladd McConkey Denier", but it's pretty obvious what happened in Los Angeles last season.

Attached to one of football's best quarterbacks, McConkey was the one viable target. Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer combined for 11 drops, prompting the team to draft Tre Harris from the Mississippi Rebels in April's draft. Harris posted the most yards per route run (5.12 YPRR) for a Power 4 conference player ever to run at least 200 routes in a season, and he posted 6.44 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception. In other words, he's good.

Keenan Allen was also brought back with rookies KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Oronde Gadsden, at tight end, making some waves in camp. The Bolts also infused their run game with Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris as the real focal point of a Greg Roman attack.

From a health perspective, McConkey's knee flare-ups in 2024 weren't just a one-off thing, either. He's battled lower-body injuries for three straight seasons dating back to his time with the Georgia Bulldogs.

He was a top steal of last year's drafts, but this ADP isn't giving nearly enough consideration to his injury history and L.A.'s makeover on offense.

Round 4

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders (37.0 ADP)

Frankly, I wish Terry McLaurin's contract dispute was over.

McLaurin is dropping in drafts because of his camp holdout, but realistically, the holdout is happening because of why, I'm sure, he's struggling to secure a new deal. It's his performance.

With competition for targets including cast-offs like Olamide Zaccheaus and Zach Ertz, "Scary Terry" was just 34th in the NFL in target share (23.3%), catching 4.8 passes per game. How'd he reach 13.3 FPPG? Running extremely hot in the touchdown column, catching 13 scores compared to 7.7 expected ones, per Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s expected fantasy points model.

Now, Deebo Samuel joins the team to siphon touches. He figures to, as he did in San Francisco, get creative looks drawn up for him in scoring range.

I don't know if the talks will be settled anytime soon. McLaurin's 2024 just isn't something the Commanders need to pay $30 million a year for, and the team guaranteed Deebo's deal out of good faith. I'm following the money and fading McLaurin while also naming Samuel my favorite wide receiver to target in Round 8.

Round 5

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (60.7 ADP)

There are many logical fallacies around the Chiefs offense and a "return to form" with explosive plays. That's why I assume Xavier Worthy's ADP sits here.

A former first-round pick that posted 157 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns in the Super Bowl is going to garner attention. Many of you remember, though, that most of that came in garbage time.

Worthy's second-half breakout happened with Rashee Rice (knee) on the sideline, and that might be the case again in 2025 for a bit as Rice likely faces a moderate suspension for off-field issues. Travis Kelce also isn't getting any younger.

But, this K.C. team has evolved to play defense first and win close games. Why? Patrick Mahomes ranked 32nd of 39 qualifiers on accuracy 20-plus yards downfield (35.5%), marking a two-year decline without Tyreek Hill. Worthy needs that to improve to be viable with Rice on the field.

In redraft formats, this feels extremely rich for that sort of vulnerable production when Rice, owner of a 34.5% target share in healthy games last year, seems to be the team's go-to guy.

Round 6

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings (62.3 ADP)

Once you get past the elite tier at tight end, the 5th to the 14th option could all be somewhat interchangeable. On a points-per-game basis, the gap between the TE5 and TE14 last year was just 2.6 FPPG.

That's why the TE5 in ADP, T.J. Hockenson, is pretty scary. You're stepping in front of your leaguemates for a guy that could have a pretty normal season and still tank compared to the spot you get him.

Hockenson also has some major concerns of his own. He benefited from the Vikings' third-highest pass rate over expectation (+3.9% PROE) and still posted just 6.6 FPPG last season after returning from a knee injury in Week 9.

The case for him probably stems from 11.4 FPPG in 2023 with Kirk Cousins at the helm, but J.J. McCarthy is yet another new signal-caller after Sam Darnold returned a dud campaign. What if Minnesota runs the ball more with a defacto rookie quarterback? Plus, he'll always battle Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison for targets.

Add in a soft tissue injury in training camp, and Hockenson might be my easiest pass in the first six rounds. His presence here let Tetairoa McMillan escape the nod despite my persistent doubts about the rookie.

Round 7

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (66.0 ADP)

Similarly to Hockenson, Baker Mayfield is just a tough sell compared to his positional peers later.

Mayfield broke out for -- easily -- the best fantasy season of his career in 2024. He was the QB4 at 22.5 FPPG, and his previous career-high mark per game was 16.7. His turbulent career journey has finally led to a home in Tampa, but I'm not sure his fantasy production sticks even as an effective QB for the Bucs.

Tampa Bay has new parts. A new playcaller (Josh Grizzard) takes over, and the team drafted Emeka Egbuka as, likely, a long-term swap for Chris Godwin. Godwin (leg) and Cade Otton (hamstring) are battling injuries in camp, as well.

Most of all, Mayfield's 41 passing TDs came despite just 35.0 expected touchdowns, per PFF. He had a meteoric 6.14% touchdown rate, which could easily fall given the weapon inside the 10-yard line that Bucky Irving showed to be.

Outside of Joe Burrow, the first pocket passer off the board is typically not the place you want to be. It was C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love last year off sky-high touchdown rates in 2023. That's why I'll pass on Mayfield and Jared Goff this season.

Round 8

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (87.7 ADP)

The best-case scenario for Jaylen Warren is if the Steelers' offense terminally fails. Pass.

Warren would, theoretically, be served best as Aaron Rodgers' checkdown option, and that was a decent gig for Breece Hall, who earned 4.8 targets per game with Rodgers a year ago. Pittsburgh's tailback can do that pretty well, per 3.9 receiving yards over expectation per game (RecYOE/g) last season (via Next Gen Stats).

He's coming off his worst season as a rusher with -0.20 rushing yards over expectations per carry (RYOE/c), though.

If things are going well for the Steelers, it's probably behind rookie tailback Kaleb Johnson. Johnson is a 224-pound bruiser that Pittsburgh took with their only Day 2 pick in April, meaning he's likely in line to absorb Najee Harris' 299 vacated touches and 52.7% share of red-zone carries in 2024. Johnson is one of my favorite running backs to target.

In full-PPR formats, Warren's monopoly of passing downs could be fine, but I'd rather take a wideout or tight end here and wait for a handcuff RB option with actual upside.

Round 9

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (100.7 ADP)

The Raiders, while not effective, were a perfect storm to funnel Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers targets. I'm not sure both continue to produce so well in an actual NFL offense.

After Davante Adams' departure in Week 3, Meyers was 12th in the entire NFL in target share (27.2%) in active games, earning 9.3 looks per contest as Vegas often trailed. This was a team whose third option was Tre Tucker and that, also, averaged the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (79.8) by 13.1% of the second-worst team's total (91.8).

It's a rare situation where the work Las Vegas' upgraded viability should hurt Meyers' overall volume. Rookies Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton Jr. are making waves at camp as new targets, and Ashton Jeanty was drafted with the idea of boosting the run game in a massive way.

Chip Kelly's last NFL offense ranked 29th in pass rate (54.1%), too. I just see the perfect storm dissipating in a way where I'd much rather have Jauan Jennings or Matthew Golden here.

Round 10

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos (116.3 ADP)

There hasn't been a day of Sean Payton's Broncos tenure with a clear running back situation, and we may not get one in 2025.

After the team drafted RJ Harvey in the second round of April's draft, most presumed he'd lead the way over Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin in specialized roles. Nope. Denver went ahead and signed J.K. Dobbins in June.

Dobbins' low-risk signing doesn't guarantee much, though, even if he sits atop the depth chart at the moment. While the running back was an early-season steal in drafts last year, Dobbins got banged up -- as usual -- to play just five contests after Week 10. He posted just two weeks of double-digit fantasy points in this stretch.

That brought the total to 29 missed games in the last three seasons for Dobbins when the upside is...a part-time role in the backfield of a professional, credentialed troll in terms of using skill players? He's on my "do not draft at any cost" list.

Round 11

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (129.0 ADP)

The Texans are taking a bit of a gamble, and I want no part of it.

I'm only sure about one part of C.J. Stroud's infrastructure, and that's his wide receivers. Adding Christian Kirk and former Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel to Nico Collins is pretty sweet. However, the rest of this situation is suboptimal.

numberFire's fifth-best schedule-adjusted defense a year ago should limit shootouts. After trading Laremy Tunsil, Houston is PFF's lowest-graded offensive line entering 2025. Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb are both battling injuries in training camp for a team that ranked 24th in rushing, per numberFire, last year.

As Higgins and Kirk replace Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, this all kind of seems too similar to the circumstances that derailed Stroud's 2024 season. He's a talented passer, but having a much higher ADP than Trevor Lawrence (161.7), Michael Penix Jr. (162.5), and Bryce Young (163.3) makes little sense.

Round 12

Rashid Shaheed, WR, New Orleans Saints (160.7 ADP)

Now, a "bust" in Round 12 doesn't exist. It's a swing that'll hit the wire in Week 1 if you miss. Rashid Shaheed won't be a whack I take in redraft formats.

Shaheed is my least favorite type of fantasy player because he's just begging to be that whopper of a score on your bench. Changing schemes and quarterbacks, the speedster ranked fifth last year in fantasy points per game on play-action passes above 15 yards when Derek Carr was healthy. He caught three touchdowns in excess of 40 yards within a five-week period.

Though new coach Kellen Moore has a decent offensive track record, Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler represent easily the worst QB duo in the league, and Shaheed's one intersection with Rattler last year was catching a single pass on 7 targets for 11 yards.

Plus, Shaheed is a speed-based target coming off a season-ending knee injury. Will he be as effective?

It's possible that his unique skillset translates to winning regularly down the field in a more traditional manner this season, but I'll let one of my leaguemates find out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.