Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

The Dallas Stars came back from a 2-0 first period deficit in Game 3 and ended up winning the game 5-3. They now have a 2-1 lead in the series and can take a commanding lead back home if they win Game 4. How can the Edmonton Oilers respond to get this series back to even?

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

Stars to Win in Regulation (+160)

We're getting much better odds on the Stars to win before overtime than the +108 on the straight moneyline, so I like taking the extra value in what should be a close game.

Dallas did not look good in the first period of Game 3 despite getting one of their most important forwards, Roope Hintz, back in the lineup. However, things turned around after the first, and Hintz played a big part in that. He had two assists in the second period. Hintz was also sixth in Selke Trophy voting for best defensive forward, so he's vital to the Stars on both sides of the puck.

An interesting trend in this series is that there has been no power-play goals for either team. This is definitely an advantage for Dallas after Edmonton's power play scored 15 goals in 12 games in the first two rounds. The Stars have only put them on the power play four times in the series and were the second-least penalized team in the regular season.

Another edge that the Stars have is in the goaltending department. We expected Jake Oettinger to outplay Stuart Skinner, and that came to fruition in Game 3. Oettinger saved 0.9 goals above expected. Skinner allowed 1.37 above expected, including a back-breaking goal in the third period that wound up being the game-winning goal.

The model on numberFire gives the Stars a 48.60% chance of winning this game with the implied odds being 48.08%. The +160 price gives them a 38.46 chance of winning in regulation. I think either one makes sense, but I like getting the better odds on the Stars being able to win this game after 60 minutes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.