Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 2

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 2

Game 1 between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars was an exciting one. It went to double overtime after Dallas was able to get the tying goal late in the third period. Edmonton was able to find the game-winning goal 32 seconds into the second overtime.

What takeaways can we use from that one to form our opinions for Game 2? Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars

Oilers Moneyline (+118)

After barely getting by in their series against the Vancouver Canucks, the Oilers came out and played really well in Game 1. They jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the second period.

Even though they ended up blowing that lead, they played well in the third period. They held the Stars to just 0.59 expected goals (xG) while generating 1.25 themselves. Typically, the trailing team finds it easier to produce chances since the winning team will sit further back defensively. It took a brilliantly redirected pass for Dallas to get the chance they needed to score the goal.

The Oilers outplayed the Stars at five-on-five -- something we didn't expect to happen coming into this series. Edmonton won the xG battle 3.5 to 2.36 when you adjust for score effects -- and the fact that Dallas was the home team.

Dallas barely had the overall edge in xG, and that was mainly due to the fact that they had 10 minutes on the power play compared to just 2 for Edmonton. We know that the power play is where the Oilers do most of their damage, and if they get more than a single man advantage in Game 2, they can easily find the back of the net.

A perceived weakness headed into the series for the Oilers was Stuart Skinner at goalie. Skinner was on his game on Thursday, saving 1.88 goals above expected. He didn't have much of a chance on either of the goals that snuck past him and also made several key saves.

The Stars were -126 favorites in Game 1 and arguably got outplayed in the game. Now, they are listed at -142 despite that performance. There is a chance they'll get back Roope Hintz, but it's not a sure thing he even plays, and he likely isn't coming back at 100%.

I like the odds we are getting on the Oilers in this game, and the model from numberFire backs that up. They have the Oilers with a 46.88% chance of winning the game while the +118 odds imply a 45.87% chance.

It may be a small edge, but I like backing Edmonton at this price.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.