Nuggets vs. Thunder Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 11

Nuggets vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ABC

The Denver Nuggets are 7-point underdogs in Game 4 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Ball Arena on Sunday, tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Nuggets hold a 2-1 series lead. The matchup's over/under is set at 229.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (52.4%)

Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder have covered the spread 54 times this season (54-26-2).
• In the Nuggets' 82 games this year, they have 38 wins against the spread.
• Thunder games have gone over the total 44 times this season.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the total in 49 of 82 opportunities (59.8%).
• In home games, Oklahoma City sports a better record against the spread (29-12-1) compared to its ATS record on the road (25-14-1).
• The Thunder have gone over the total more often when playing at home, hitting the over in 25 of 42 home matchups (59.5%). In road games, they have hit the over in 19 of 40 games (47.5%).
• In 2024-25 against the spread, Denver has a lower winning percentage at home (.439, 18-23-0 record) than on the road (.488, 20-20-1).
• In 2024-25, a higher percentage of the Nuggets' games have finished above the over/under at home (63.4%, 26 of 41) compared to on the road (56.1%, 23 of 41).

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists, shooting 51.9% from the floor and 37.5% from downtown, with 2.1 made treys per contest.
• Jalen Williams' numbers on the season are 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 36.5% from downtown, with an average of 1.8 made treys.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists, shooting 58.1% from the floor.
• Aaron Wiggins averages 12 points, 3.9 boards and 1.8 assists, shooting 48.8% from the floor and 38.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.7 made 3-pointers per contest.
• Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.1 points, 1.6 assists and 4.1 boards.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 29.6 points, 12.7 boards and 10.2 assists. He is also sinking 57.6% of his shots from the field (ninth in league) and 41.7% from beyond the arc, with 2 triples per game.
• Jamal Murray averages 21.4 points, 3.9 boards and 6 assists. He is also draining 47.4% of his shots from the field and 39.3% from beyond the arc, with 2.3 treys per contest.
• The Nuggets are receiving 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game from Michael Porter Jr.
• Christian Braun's numbers on the season are 15.4 points, 5.2 boards and 2.6 assists per game. He is making 58% of his shots from the field (eighth in NBA) and 39.7% from beyond the arc, with an average of 1.1 treys.
• The Nuggets get 13.3 points per game from Russell Westbrook, plus 4.9 boards and 6.1 assists.

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