NRFI Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/12/24
The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.
While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.
On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.
Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Best NRFI Prop Bets
Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays
Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-115)
It's tough to trust Javier Assad and Aaron Civale over the course of Wednesday's showdown between the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays, but we can have confidence to come out unscathed in the first inning.
For starters, the Rays are recording the 10th-lowest wOBA (.288), 12th-lowest wRC+ (92), and 9th-lowest ISO (.134) in the opening frame of contests.
Throughout his first 13 starts in 2024, Assad is logging a solid 3.43 xFIP, .243 wOBA, and 25.9% strikeout rate in the first inning. This has resulted in Assad putting together a 10-3 NRFI record -- with a NRFI occurring in each of his last five outings.
Besides the Rays going five straight games without a run to begin the contest, they have the worst wOBA (.276), fourth-worst wRC+ (82), second-worst ISO (.111), and fourth-highest strikeout rate (24.9%) in the last 30 days. The Cubs haven't been much better with the fifth-worst wOBA (.283), seventh-worst wRC+ (84), fourth-worst ISO (.125), and seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.1%) in that span.
Those metrics bode well for Civale, who is sporting the 12th-best xFIP (2.36), 26th-best WHIP (0.77), and 15th-best strikeout rate (36.0%) in the first inning among pitchers with five-plus starts. Even though Civale has given up three-plus earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts, he's earned an 11-2 NRFI record and has gone eight straight appearances with zero runs allowed to begin a game.
While Assad and Civale aren't in the best of form right now, both of these teams are ranked 13th or worse in YRFI percentage this season.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-102)
With the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers pitted against one another on Wednesday, we'll have two teams that excel at producing runs in the first inning. Both teams are seventh or better in YRFI percentage with Texas holding the seventh-best rate at 31.82%.
While the Rangers have yet to officially announce a starter, Jon Gray is expected to be on the bump after making a recent relief appearance immediately following a stint on the injured list. Although Gray has gone three straight starts without giving up a run in the opening inning, he is still carrying a mediocre 6-4 NRFI record.
Considering the fact that Gray could be making his first start since May 21, it's worth taking a chance on the red-hot bats of the Dodgers to potentially secure a run to begin the contest. Los Angeles tallied three runs in the first inning of Tuesday's bout against Texas, and getting Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman out is easier said than done.
Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman are all sporting a .420 wOBA, 178 wRC+, and .276 ISO or better in the first frame of games this year.
On the other hand, Walker Buehler has struggled at the beginning of his starts, registering a dismal 3-3 NRFI record in his first six appearances of the campaign. Just to illustrate how tough it's been for Buehler out of the gate, 33% of his runs allowed this season have come in the first inning.
The combination of Gray -- or another pitcher -- being tasked to contain the Dodgers and Buehler's early-game woes makes this an enticing game to target for a YRFI.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
