NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/11/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin
NRFI Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/11/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

When the Atlanta Braves travel to take on the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday, it will be Max Fried and Albert Suarez on the bump. Fried has been tremendous in his last three starts, allowing a combined three earned runs while striking out 28 batters with just two walks in 24 innings of action in that span.

On the season, Fried owns an 8-4 NRFI record despite recording a 5.11 xFIP and .432 wOBA in the first inning of games. At the same time, he is sporting a 2.99 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, and 23.9% strikeout rate against righties, compared to a 3.66 xFIP, 2.10 WHIP, and 20.6% strikeout rate to lefties.

Those splits are notable with the Baltimore Orioles potentially trotting out a few right-handed batters (Jordan Westburg, Adley Rutschman, and Ryan Mountcastle) early in their lineup. Even though the Orioles have scored the 13th-most runs (31) in the first inning, Fried's recent dominance on the mound is enough to have confidence getting three outs to begin the contest.

While Suarez is making just his seventh start of the campaign, he has a perfect 6-0 NRFI record this year. Suarez's numbers in the opening frame are impressive, posting a positive 3.69 xFIP, .154 BABIP, and a 31.8% strikeout rate.

Aside from Suarez's success to begin games, the Braves are logging the 4th-lowest wOBA (.272), 4th-lowest wRC+ (74), 12th-lowest ISO (.142), and 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) in the last 14 days. With Fried cruising in recent outings and Suarez shutting down teams in the first inning, this is a solid game to target for a NRFI.

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-132)

Zack Wheeler and Kutter Crawford boast fantastic NRFI records in the last two seasons, making this an enticing NRFI option at the current odds. Wheeler loves to set the tone early for the Philadelphia Phillies, registering a 2.29 xFIP, 0.69 WHIP, and 31.3% strikeout rate in the first frame across his first 13 starts,

This has resulted in Wheeler producing a 12-0 NRFI record in 2024. While the Boston Red Sox are recording the 7th-best wOBA (.349), 7th-best wRC+ (122), and 4th-best ISO (.207) in the first inning, they have the 13th-highest strikeout rate (25.3%) in the opening frame.

As for Crawford, he isn't too far behind Wheeler with an 11-2 NRFI record through 13 starts this season. In the first inning of games, Crawford is permitting just a .242 wOBA, 2.78 xFIP, and a 30.8% strikeout rate.

The Phillies are another team that excels to begin contests, accruing the fifth-best wOBA (.366), fifth-best wRC+ (138), and eighth-best ISO (.202) in the first inning. Philadelphia is expected to deploy two left-handed bats in the first three players of their batting order, and Crawford is allowing a .258 wOBA, 1.02 WHIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate in that split, compared to a .318 wOBA, 1.37 WHIP, and 21.4% strikeout rate to righties.

Additionally, the Phils could have two players (Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto) batting in the first inning who have a strikeout rate of 27.6% or higher against right-handed pitching. Even though Philly and Boston have strong offenses in the first frame of games, Wheeler and Crawford haven't had trouble containing teams in the opening inning this year.

Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

There could be fireworks early in Tuesday's clash between the Los Angeles Angels and Arizona Diamondbacks. Jose Suarez -- who is making his first start in 2024 -- and Jordan Montgomery are both left-handed pitchers who are stumbling on the mound this season.

While we don't have any first-inning data for Suarez this year, he is ranked inside the 40th percentile in xERA (4.15), 8th percentile in walk rate (13.5%), 30th percentile in barrel rate (8.7%), and 23rd percentile in hard-hit rate (42.4%) as a reliever. Meanwhile, Montgomery is recording a forgettable 4.99 SIERA, 4.64 xFIP, and 13.8% strikeout rate in nine starts for Arizona.

When looking at Montgomery's numbers in the first inning, he's posting a 4.06 xFIP, .345 BABIP, and 1.44 WHIP with a 7-2 NRFI record. It just so happens that the Angels and Diamondbacks are both teams who are seeing the ball well against left-handed pitching.

Arizona is notching the fourth-best wOBA (.338), fourth-best wRC+ (120), and seventh-best ISO (.162) while Los Angeles is tallying the sixth-best wOBA (.334), seventh-best wRC+ (116), and fifth-best ISO (.173) versus southpaws. To add on to that, the Diamondbacks have the second-best wOBA (.387), second-best wRC+ (153), and fifth-best ISO (205) in the first inning of games.

Within the first four batters in Arizona's projected lineup, Suarez will have to face three players (Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, and Christian Walker) who have a .344 wOBA and 123 wRC+ or better against left-handed pitchers. Considering the dismal performances we've gotten from Suarez and Montgomery, this is an intriguing YRFI spot and is one of my favorite matchups to target for a SGP on Tuesday.

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