Michigan State vs Louisville College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Second Round

The No. 3 seed Michigan State Spartans (26-7) will take to the court against the No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (24-10) on Saturday with a spot in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament up for grabs. This game tips at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Before you place your bet on this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Michigan State vs. Louisville Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Saturday, March 21, 2026
• Game time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Michigan State vs. Louisville Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Michigan State win (61.9%)

Take a look at the betting trends and insights below before placing a bet on Saturday's Michigan State-Louisville spread (Michigan State -4.5) or total (151.5 points).

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Michigan State vs. Louisville: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Michigan State is 18-15-0 ATS this season.
• Louisville is 17-17-0 ATS this season.
• Michigan State covers the spread when it is a 4.5-point favorite or more 42.9% of the time. That's more often than Louisville covers as an underdog of 4.5 or more (never covered this season).
• At home, the Spartans sport a worse record against the spread (8-9-0) compared to their ATS record on the road (6-4-0).
• This year, the Cardinals are 10-7-0 at home against the spread (.588 winning percentage). Away, they are 3-8-0 ATS (.273).

Michigan State vs. Louisville: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Michigan State has come away with 23 wins in the 26 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• This season, the Spartans have been victorious 18 times in 20 chances when named as a favorite of at least -220 or better on the moneyline.
• Louisville has put together a 1-3 record in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 25% of those games).
• The Cardinals have played as a moneyline underdog of +180 or longer in only one game this season, which they lost.
• The moneyline set for this matchup implies Michigan State has a 68.8% chance of coming away with a victory in the contest.

Michigan State vs. Louisville Head-to-Head Comparison

• Michigan State was 78th in the country in points scored (77.7 per game) and 44th in points conceded (67.1) last season.
• On the boards, Michigan State was 10th-best in college basketball in rebounds (36.7 per game) last year. It was 28th in rebounds allowed (28.2 per game).
• Michigan State was 24th-best in the country in assists (16.5 per game) last year.
• Michigan State committed 10.7 turnovers per game last season and forced 10.4 per game, ranking 135th and 265th, respectively, in the country.
• Louisville ranked 65th in the nation last season with 78.5 points per game. At the other end, it ranked 89th with 69.5 points allowed per game.
• Louisville ranked 47th in the nation with 34.6 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, it ranked 114th with 30.2 rebounds allowed per contest.
• Louisville ranked 148th in the nation with 13.9 assists per game.
• Last season Louisville averaged 10.9 turnovers per game (150th-ranked in college basketball) and forced 12.2 turnovers per contest (93rd-ranked).

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