NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 7/1/24

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin
NRFI Bets to Target on Monday 7/1/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bet

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

Setting our sights on a YRFI in this matchup is all about backing a Houston Astros offense that's firing on all cylinders and taking on a vulnerable Yariel Rodriguez.

The Astros are up to fifth in YRFI rate this season (32.5%), and that's backed up by being tied for fifth in first-inning wRC+ (131). They've secured a YRFI in 36.0% of the past 25 games and half of their last 10 games.

Rodriguez recently came off the injured list in mid-June and has made just six MLB starts this season due to a back issue. While it's a limited sample, the results haven't been pretty. The right-hander has flashed potential in Triple-A with a 37.9% strikeout rate, but in the big leagues, he's amassed a 5.78 xERA, 5.11 SIERA, 20.0% K rate, and 14.1% walk rate.

In his two June starts, Rodriguez was rocked for four earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians and then had the following outing washed out due to rain after a single inning, so he hasn't had much of an opportunity to right the ship since his return from injury, either.

Lefty slugger Yordan Alvarez has +310 odds to hit a home run, easily the shortest odds in the two games outside of Coors Field today. Rodriguez has actually performed worse in same-handed matchups (5.28 xFIP in the split), so Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman could give him problems in the first inning, as well.

The Toronto Blue Jays are a big reason why we aren't seeing shorter odds for a YRFI, as Toronto has the league's second-worst YRFI rate (16.9%). The truth is we probably shouldn't expect much from them against a much improved Hunter Brown who just posted a fantastic 3.01 xFIP, 30.0% strikeout rate, and 6.7% walk rate in June.

Still, the Blue Jays' bats have managed a more respectable 24.0% YRFI clip over their last 25 games and have logged 40.0% over their last 10. Additionally, even with his improved play, Brown has a somewhat underwhelming 66.7% NRFI rate over 15 starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.