NRFI Best Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/24/24
The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.
While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.
On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.
Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?
Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NRFI Best Bets
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)
Matt Waldron is a knuckleball pitcher who ranks in the 86th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.7%) and 69th percentile in walk rate (6.7%) through 20 starts for the San Diego Padres. Teams have a tough time adjusting to the knuckleball early in games, which has helped Waldron allow zero earned runs in the first inning across each of his last three starts.
Waldron will face the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. The Nats are recording the highest NRFI rate (84.2%) in all of baseball this season. Along with Waldron posting a solid 3.35 xFIP and 31.0% strikeout rate in the opening frame of games, the Nationals are registering the ninth-highest groundball rate (44.1%) and fourth-lowest flyball rate (34.6%) against right-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.
It will be Mitchell Parker drawing the start for Washington, and he has posted a 12-5 NRFI record across his first 17 starts in 2024. Although Parker is logging a 3.95 xFIP and 1.44 WHIP in the first inning of his starts, some of his woes in the opening inning can be attributed to his 9.6% walk rate to begin games.
Parker is recording a 39.6% groundball and flyball rate in the first inning while he's yet to surrender a home run in the opening frame. Even though the Padres have the 12th-lowest NRFI rate (71.8%) this season, they are producing the second-worst wOBA (.197), second-worst wRC+ (28), and eighth-worst ISO (.083) in the first inning over the last 30 days.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays
Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)
Ahead of Wednesday's AL East bout between the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays, we have two starters who are on solid NRFI streaks squaring off. Zach Eflin is slated to take the mound for the Rays while Yariel Rodriguez is expected to get the nod for the Blue Jays.
Entering his 19th start of the campaign, Eflin has earned a 13-5 NRFI record while giving up zero earned runs in the opening frame in four straight contests. Besides Eflin accruing a 3.54 xFIP with zero walks and a 43.5% groundball rate in the first inning, Toronto has notched the second-highest NRFI rate (81.0%) up to this point.
After posting a 2-2 NRFI record through his first four starts in 2024, Rodriguez has recorded a shoutout inning to begin each of his last five outings. The one issue for Rodriguez is the fact he's registering a dismal 11.4% walk rate in the opening frame.
On the other hand, Rodriguez is allowing the 14th-lowest wOBA (.190) and 5th-lowest SLG (.161) in the first inning while sporting a positive 0.89 WHIP and .174 BABIP in the split. The good news for Rodriguez is that the Rays are posting the 6th-lowest wOBA (.294), 10th-lowest wRC+ (94), 10th-lowest ISO (.148), and 7th-highest strikeout rate (24.5%) versus righties in the last 30 days -- along with the 7th-highest groundball rate (44.9%) during that span.
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