NL Cy Young Odds Update: Blake Snell Lurks Behind the Consensus Favorites

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD
NL Cy Young Odds Update: Blake Snell Lurks Behind the Consensus Favorites

The All-Star Break is here which means we've officially hit the halfway point of the 2023 MLB season. While narratives have already taken hold of the major awards, a lot can happen over the final three months of the regular season.

Let's see where things currently stand in the pitching department, looking today at the National League Cy Young odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Zac Gallen+250
Spencer Strider+310
Clayton Kershaw+400
Blake Snell+1200

Zac Gallen (+250)

Zac Gallen has jumped to the top of the leaderboard in the NL Cy Young race since the last time we checked in. The Arizona Diamondbacks righty finished the first half on a strong note with seven innings of one-run ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Gallen's name is scattered across the top of NL leaderboards, with notable top ranks in:

  • Wins: 1st (11)
  • ERA: 6th (3.04)
  • Strikeouts: 6th (125)
  • Innings: 3rd (118.1)

Gallen's advanced statistical profile is similarly impressive. He's displayed excellent control, ranking fourth with a 4.9% walk rate while striking hitters out at a top-10 rate (26.5%). Similarly, his 3.53 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) ranks seventh in the league. He's racked up 3.7 wins above replacement (WAR) for his efforts -- the best WAR in the National League.

As the top pitcher for a Diamondbacks team that figures to be in the hunt well into September, Gallen should continue to have some of the top Cy Young odds in the NL, provided he avoids any prolonged struggles.

Spencer Strider (+310)

Spencer Strider has dropped in the NL Cy Young odds since the last time we checked in -- although, not by much. Strider saw his odds shoot up following a rough two-game stretch where he gave up 13 runs to the New York Mets and Detroit Tigers.

That proved to be a minor blip on the radar, however, as Strider looked dominant as usual across his final four starts before the All-Star Break. He allowed just four runs over that span, striking out at least nine hitters in all four outings.

Strider's ERA still sits at an unfavorable 3.44 (14th in the NL). However, his 2.67 SIERA tells a different story and leads the National League. Additionally, Strider leads the NL with an absurd 38.9% strikeout rate -- a number 6.5 percentage points higher than the next-closest pitcher. He's tied with Gallen for the lead in wins (11) and Atlanta's high-powered offense has limited Strider to just two losses.

Strider looked dominant in April but was up and down over a nine-game stretch from May into the middle of June. His odds have shifted throughout the season as a result but if his most recent four outings are any indication, he could finally be settling in as the Atlanta Braves continue their torrid pace into the second half.

Clayton Kershaw (+400)

Despite a recent trip to the IL, Clayton Kershaw has quietly closed the gap between him and Strider/Gallen since the last time we checked in on this race. The future Hall of Famer

Despite making two fewer starts than Strider (and three less than Gallen), Kershaw is right behind them with 10 wins. He has both of them beat in ERA, leading the NL with a 2.55 mark. While he hasn't (and likely won't) catch Strider in strikeouts, Kershaw's 27.7% strikeout rate still ranks fourth in the National League.

Kershaw's injury is concerning -- especially with the news that he may not be ready to pitch immediately following the All-Star Break.

While it still looks minor, durability is certainly a concern going forward for the 35-year-old. That said, he's pitched as well as anyone in the sport thus far. Considering narrative plays a role in deciding these awards, Kershaw's legacy and the prospect of him becoming just the fifth player to win four Cy Young Awards is something to keep in mind going forward.

Blake Snell (+1200)

While Gallen, Strider, and Kershaw were atop the NL Cy Young odds the last time we checked in early June, Blake Snell was nowhere to be found. In fact, Snell held astronomical +12000 odds to win the award on June 1st.

Fast forward a little over a month, and Blake Snell is miraculously within striking distance of those three. All it took was perhaps the most dominant nine-game stretch of the 2018 Cy Young winner's career.

Over that span, Snell's ERA has dropped from 5.40 to 2.85 and he's recorded double-digit strikeouts in five of nine starts. Snell now ranks second in the NL with a 32.4% strikeout percentage and he's the only pitcher besides Spencer Strider with a strikeout rate north of 30%.

This dominant stretch has coincided with the Padres adding Gary Sanchez and he's caught all of Snell's last nine starts. It remains to be seen how much longer the notoriously-streaky southpaw can keep this up. However, if Snell is going to make a run at the award this is likely the last time you'll see him priced outside of +1000.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.