NHL

NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 3/27/24: Will Lightning-Bruins Be a High-Scoring Matchup?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz

Another night with just two games, but hopefully we can still find some value in these games.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Moneyline (-144)

The Buffalo Sabres are making a last-ditch run at the playoffs, similar to last season. It has spawned a good amount of jokes about how good they become at this point of the season.

They seem unlikely to be able to get to the playoffs now, having fallen eight points behind the last Wild Card spot. Tonight is close to a must-win game, and they likely have an edge.

Buffalo has gotten great goaltending from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen this season. He's 15th in the NHL in goals saved above expected (GSAx). They will go up against Joonas Korpisalo for the Ottawa Senators, and he is the second-worst goalie in the league by GSAx.

The Senators have allowed 23 goals in their last five games. Buffalo has averaged 3.41 goals per 60 minutes since the trade deadline -- despite trading away their second-line center in Casey Mittelstadt. They should be able to score against this team in this matchup.

Buffalo's moneyline is also a recommended bet by numberFire's model, so I'll go with that for our best bet in this game.

Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 5.5 Goals (-132)

The Tampa Bay Lightning return home from a road trip to face the Boston Bruins.

Tampa has been scoring a ton of goals of late. They've netted 4.28 goals per 60 minutes in March, the most in the NHL.

It won't be as easy for the Lightning to score against the Bruins as it has been against other teams, but there are some reasons to believe Tampa Bay can still find success. Boston ranks in just the middle of the pack in terms of expected goals (xG) against rate and high-danger chances allowed at five-on-five. You also have to factor in the Lightning power play, which is number-one in the league.

Boston should be able to score in this game, too. Andrei Vasilevskiy has not been the same goalie this season -- as he has -3.0 GSAx. The Bruins scored four goals against the Florida Panthers last night, and Florida allows the fewest goals per game in the league.

I don't believe the Bruins will be able to shut down Tampa's hot offense, and they should be able to score some goals themselves. That puts me on the over, and the model at numberFire also backs this up, as well.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.