NHL Betting Picks for Wednesday 2/21/24: Can Edmonton Win Heavyweight Bout Versus Boston?

We've got five games on Wednesday with some really intriguing matchups.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks

Under 6.5 Goals (-140)

The Philadelphia Flyers still occupy the last playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division despite going 4-5-1 in their last 10 games. They weren't expected to be in this position heading into the season, but they've been solid for the entire campaign.

Most of their success has been driven by their defensive game. They have allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes in the league.

They haven't been a dynamic offensive team, as they average just the 22nd-most goals per game and 18th-most xG per 60 minutes. They also have the second-worst power play in the NHL.

The Flyers will take on the team with the worst power play, the Chicago Blackhawks. Chicago got Connor Bedard back in their lineup but have still scored just six goals in the three games since.

Philly is without Carter Hart, but Samuel Ersson has the higher goals saved above expected (GSAx) of the two anyway.

It's a little surprising to see these two low-scoring teams combine for a total of 6.5 goals, as it seems more like a game that would have a 5.5 total. You can also bet under 5.5 as an alternate total, and the odds on that are +115.

Boston Bruins at Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Moneyline (-130)

Two heavyweight teams with Stanley Cup aspirations will meet tonight, as the Boston Bruins travel to face the Edmonton Oilers.

The Bruins have not played particularly well of late. They've lost five of seven games since the All-Star break and have scored just 2.14 goals per game over that span.

Boston is not the same dominant possession team at five-on-five that they normally are. They rank only 14th in xG% with both teams at full strength. What's keeping them near the top of the Eastern Conference is goaltending, as they have the second-best team save percentage in the league.

Meanwhile, Edmonton is the best xG team at five-on-five this season. When you have Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, that's extremely dangerous for opponents. They also have the league's fourth-best power play after having the best power play of all time last season with the same personnel.

The Oilers have more regulation wins than the Bruins despite playing four fewer games this season. It's fairly easy to make a case for them being a better overall team, and the recent form definitely favors Edmonton.

Boston will be without Hampus Lindholm, an important defenseman who plays the second-most minutes on their blueline. That doesn't bode well against the Oilers with the forwards they have.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Anaheim Ducks

Ducks Moneyline (-104)

This game is very much not a battle of heavyweights like the last game was. Rather, it's between two teams towards the bottom of the standings.

The Columbus Blue Jackets got blown out last night, losing 5-1 against the Los Angeles Kings. They are dead last in the East and have won just three of their last 10 games. They've now allowed the second-most goals per game.

After Elvis Merzlikins started last night for the Jackets, it seems likely they will turn to Daniil Tarasov tonight. Tarasov has the worst GSAx rate per 60 minutes in the league for goalies who have played at least 10 games.

The Anaheim Ducks haven't been great this season, but they have played better lately than Columbus. They've gone 5-4-1 in their last 10 games and closed out their road trip with a win over the Buffalo Sabres.

Columbus does have a slight edge in xG rate this season, 46.65% to 46.08%. That advantage is mitigated by Anaheim's home-ice advantage, rest advantage, and goaltending advantage.

It seems wild that the Blue Jackets can be road favorites on a back-to-back against any team in the NHL with the way things are going for them. Even if the Ducks aren't very good, they aren't as bad as the San Jose Sharks -- a team Columbus needed overtime to beat on Saturday.

The model on numberFire agrees that the Ducks are the play here, giving the moneyline a three-star rating.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.