NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/19/24: Can the Red Wings Get Back on Track?

Scott Edwards Jr.
Scott Edwards Jr.@ScottEdwardsJr
NHL Betting Picks for Tuesday 3/19/24: Can the Red Wings Get Back on Track?

The NHL is full of action tonight with a huge 13-game slate to pick from.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings

Red Wings ML (-172)

The Detroit Red Wings are not having a great time these days, having gone 2-8-0 in their last 10 games. Sure, you'd think to bet against them after the recent run, but the Columbus Blue Jackets present a great matchup to finally get themselves back on some sort of track in the final month of the season.

Detroit is one of the best scoring teams in the NHL, posting 3.35 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) on the year. That's good for seventh in the league. Columbus can't say the same, as they're scoring just 2.86 GF/60, which ranks 25th.

On the defensive end, these two teams are far more similar, as the Red Wings are 24th in the NHL with 3.33 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60) while Columbus ranks 30th with 3.54 GA/60.

These two teams let up a lot of goals, so this should be a high-scoring game, but the Red Wings have the skill to be the ones that do most of the scoring.

The game will see Daniil Tarasov and James Reimer take over in net. Tarasov hasn't been great -- not a shock considering the Blue Jackets' numbers. He's got a 3.16 goals against average (GAA) and .906 save percentage (SV%). However, Reime is nearly the same with a 2.97 GAA and .906 SV%. There's little edge, so again, it comes down to how these teams have scored.

numberFire's model is giving the Red Wings a 71.63% likelihood of getting the win. The -172 odds mean a 63.2% implied probability.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers

Flyers +1.5 (-205)

When it comes to tricky teams in this league, there are few as difficult to face than the Philadelphia Flyers. They may have lost back-to-back games, but they should be able to stay in it tonight against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

As of right now, both these teams are third in their divisions with the playoffs in their future. The Flyers got there with a strong offensive effort, ranking 11th with a 62.75 Corsi for per 60 minutes (CF/60). The Maple Leafs are unsurprisingly around the same, coming in at 9th with a 63.05 CF/60.

The Flyers are averaging only 2.87 GF/60 but do have 3.00 expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Where the Maple Leafs excel is in goalscoring, recording the third-best GF/60 (3.51) and fourth-best xGF/60 (3.37). That's what Philadelphia will look to overcome defensively.

Philadelphia is fifth in the NHL with 2.85 expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), totaling 2.98 GA/60 overall. Toronto hasn't been as good in that respect as illustrated by their 3.06 GA/60 and 3.08 xGA/60 -- putting them right on the mark with their overall play.

numberFire's model gives the Flyers a 75.09% likelihood of covering, an improvement over the 67.2% implied probability that comes with the -205 odds.

Winnipeg Jets at New York Rangers

Under 5.5 Goals (-114)

Are two of the best teams at keeping the puck out of their own net facing off? Yes, so give us the under for this one.

The Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers have been among the top teams in the NHL all season long. It's only fitting that a potential Stanley Cup Final preview goes down to the wire, and I'll take Under 5.5 Goals because of it. The top goaltenders for each of these teams are expected to get the go with Connor Hellebuyck and Igor Shesterkin heading in.

Those two goalies have been major parts of each team's success. The Jets are leading the NHL in GA/60 at 2.33. Hellebuyck has made sure they outplay their expected numbers, as they have a 2.97 xGA/60. The Rangers are in a similar boat, ranking sixth in the NHL with 2.65 GA/60 despite a 3.08 xGA/60 on the season.

Back to Hellebuyck and Shesterkin. The Jets' netminder is on his way to another Vezina Trophy this season, as he's sporting a 2.31 GAA, .922 SV%, and 37.01 goals saved above expectation (GSAx). Shesterkin has had an incredible second half of the season, coming into this tilt with a 2.59 GAA, .912 SV%, and 16.45 GSAx.

These two teams are similar in goalscoring, with the Rangers having 3.32 GF/60 and the Jets having 3.11 GF/60. It'll come down to the defense and goalies, though, and that's who should be keeping this big game under 5.5 goals.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.