NHL

NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/3/24

Brandon Gdula
Brandon Gdula@gdula13
NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/3/24

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long.

It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for today.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Arizona Coyotes at Washington Capitals

Arizona +1.5 (-210)

The model at numberFire likes this game to stay close with the Arizona Coyotes rating out as a 51.8% favorite. That leaves a lot of interest in the +1.5 puckline even at -210 odds.

The Coyotes hold a respectable 1.00 PDO in road matchups, via NaturalStatTrick, and the Washington Capitals are sitting at a 1.00 at home, too.

This one should be close, so the +1.5 puckline makes sense.

Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks

Over 6.5 (-104)

Ducks +1.5 (-120)

Though the Anaheim Ducks are only 9-20-1 at home, they have a better expected goal differential per 60 minutes at home (-0.68) than actual goal differential per 60 minutes (-0.89), via NaturalStatTrick.

The opposite is true for the Vancouver Canucks, who hold a +0.41 goal differential per 60 minutes on the road but a 0.00 expected goal differential in that split.

However, the main angle here is the over 6.5 at -104. Vancouver's offense has traveled well enough (3.44 goals for per 60 minutes), and numberFire's model likes this game to score an average of 6.64 goals.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers

Oilers Moneyline (-192)

Calvin Pickard is confirmed in the net against the Pittsburgh Penguins for the late game today.

Pickard is 7-3-0 on the year with a .905 save percentage and a 2.53 GAA with a shutout. A lot of his metrics are around the league average, and the Penguins are generating a top-five rate in shots on net per 60 minutes in road matchups.

Pittsburgh is also top-10 in expected goal share in road matchups (51.4%).

So, there is a bit of volatility in play here, but the Edmonton Oilers rank second in the NHL in expected goal share when playing at home (57.7%).

They also have a rest advantage, as the Pens played last night, losing to the Calgary Flames 4-3.

NHL Prop Bets

Joel Eriksson Ek Any Time Goal (+125)

Joel Eriksson Ek To Record 4+ Shots on Goal (-130)

Joel Eriksson Ek draws a very plus home matchup against the San Jose Sharks as a -335 moneyline favorite in a game with a 6.5-goal total.

Eriksson Ek has been scoreless in six games since a hat trick despite 5, 0, 5, 4, 3, and 2 shots on goal in games since then.

The Sharks are letting up a league-high 3.78 expected goals per 60 minutes on the road this year. They also let up a league-high 35.4 shots on net per 60 minutes in road matchups.

numberFire's model projects Eriksson Ek for 0.61 goals and 4.23 shot attempts today.

J.T. Miller To Record 3+ Shots on Goal (-168)

J.T. Miller squares up against the Ducks in a matchup we already outlined as a potentially over-friendly situation.

The Ducks are surrendering 33.3 shot attempts per game, fifth-most in the NHL.

Miller has 4, 4, and 5 shot attempts in each of his past three games while averaging 3.4 per game since the start of February.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.