NHL

NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/24/24

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Sunday 3/24/24

Sunday in the NHL is usually quiet, but today is a bit different with 10 games. How can we find value amongst them?

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals

Under 5.5 (+102)

This Sunday matinee might fly right by us.

The Winnipeg Jets and Washington Capitals are likely looking for a return to normalcy after allowing six goals a piece yesterday. Winnipeg allows the fewest goals per 60 minutes in the NHL (2.40), and the Capitals are no strangers to low-scoring affairs when the over has only hit in 32 of their 71 games.

FanDuel Research's NHL projections expect Connor Hellebuyck in goal for the Planes, and Charlie Lindgren should get the nod for the Caps after brief relief duty yesterday. That's great news for this under when both rank in the top-20 goaltenders in goals saved above expectation (GSAx) this season. Hellebuyck is favored to win his second Vezina Trophy behind the league's best GSAx (35.63).

Ignoring Saturday's action, two sharp models are in alignment across the board about this total. Massey Ratings expects fewer than six goals 53.1% of the time in this affair, and numberFire believes the under cashes 55.9% of the time.

Florida Panthers at Philadelphia Flyers

Panthers -1.5 (+150)

If we're looking at expected-goal (xG) differentials, the Florida Panthers should crush the Philadelphia Flyers most times they match up -- even on the road.

The Panthers' 56.0 expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) is second-best in the NHL, and Philadelphia lags well behind that in 15th (51.3%). These are -- in a vacuum -- two good clubs, but the Ice Cats can throw around the word elite. That's just encompassing skater performance, but the gap widens in goal.

Florida's Anthony Stolarz is 14th in the NHL with 15.78 GSAx this season, and the Flyers are being forced to turn to Felix Sandstrom on the back-to-back. Needless to say, Sandstrom's -3.32 GSAx is quite the disadvantage.

numberFire believes Florida covers this spread 47.2% of the time this afternoon, and Massey (39.6%) is in the same ballpark.

Anecdotally, this seems like a good buy-low spot on one of the leagues best teams when, stunningly, Florida hasn't covered a two-goal margin in five games. Plus, they're 24-12 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season.

Edmonton Oilers at Ottawa Senators

Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+115)

The great Connor McDavid hasn't scored in two games, but after a disappointing primetime loss on Saturday, I'm expecting him to be aggressive to get the Edmonton Oilers turned back in the right direction.

McDavid has actually only taken a single shot in the past couple of contests despite averaging 3.38 per game for the season. It's been an odd lull for one of the league's best and most voluminous scorers, and yet he's in a sublime spot to end the drought.

Edmonton's 3.69-goal implied team total facing the Ottawa Senators is gigantic, and projected Ottawa starter Anton Forsberg is the reason why. Forsberg has the 11th-worst GSAx (-6.34) in hockey this year.

FDR is projected McDavid for 0.65 median goals in Sunday's game, meaning his odds for a single tally should be closer to -186 in our projections' eyes.

Dallas Stars at Arizona Coyotes

Coyotes +1.5 (-134)

This FanDuel number crushes other sportsbooks on the market right now -- all of whom have it sitting at -140 or shorter. I'd snag it quickly.

No one's going to argue the Arizona Coyotes are the better team today, but this is a decent spot for them. With a 16-19 ATS record away from home, the Dallas Stars are no stranger to an odd disappointment as a visitor.

Arizona figures to have a fairly pronounced edge in goal tonight. Connor Ingram (15.67 GSAx) still ranks among the league's top-15 netminders despite a bit of a standstill after the All-Star break, but that towers over Jake Oettinger (-7.59), who has yet to shake off a season-long slump.

numberFire believes the Yotes cover 64.9% of the time tonight, and Massey (70.9%) is even higher than that. We'll take those projections against these 57.3% implied odds.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks

Over 6.5 (-112)
Nikita Kucherov 4+ Shots on Goal (-130)
Nikita Kucherov 2+ Points (-113)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have played a pretty absurd stretch of high-scoring games.

Seven of their last eight affairs have seen at least seven combined goals posted, and this doesn't appear to be a matchup where that's slowing down. The Anaheim Ducks allow the second-most xG per 60 minutes (3.45) in the NHL, and the goaltending here is pretty abysmal on both sides.

Tampa will be forced toward Jonas Johansson (-8.81 GSAx), whose early-season Vezina consideration seems like a fever dream at this stage. Having not played since Thursday, the Ducks could turn toward either John Gibson (3.93 GSAx) or Lukas Dostal (1.31 GSAx), but neither figure to stop the bleeding against a Bolts offense scoring 3.46 goals per 60 minutes (sixth-best in the NHL).

numberFire expects the over to cash 58.2% of the time in this game, and Massey (52.4%) is decently high on it, as well.

FanDuel Research expects Nikita Kucherov to explode amidst this potential onslaught. After all, the All-Star is scorching with a league-high 19 points in 8 games this month. He's also taken 3.90 shots per game this year entering a matchup against a team allowing the third-most per 60 minutes (32.6) in the NHL.

FDR projects Kucherov for 1.78 points and 4.43 shots in Sunday's game. His points projection would imply -355 odds for at least two, and his shots projection would peg reasonable +133 odds for five shots -- much less four.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.