NHL Betting Picks and Player Props to Target: Saturday 1/27/24

Saturday usually means a busy night on the ice, and we've got 28 teams in action at some point today. With no shortage of options to choose from, there are some pretty tasty wagers sitting at FanDuel Sportsbook's proverbial kiosks.

Whether it's moneylines, total goals, or player props, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season long. It's a long 82-game season, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

My favorite picks are on the way, but don't forget to check out FanDuel's Parlay Hub to see other trending bets in all sports -- including ice hockey.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NHL Best Bets

New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators

Rangers ML (-110)
Chris Kreider Anytime Goal (+160)

I am a little sketched out by this betting line, but the value is too good to pass up. The significantly better -- by just about any measure -- New York Rangers are in a pick 'em with the Ottawa Senators? numberFire's model loves it, and I like a bounce back for New York after yesterday's 5-2 drubbing at home.

New York has a 55.9% expected-goals-for rate (xGF%) over the past month of play, and Ottawa's (51.6 xGF%) isn't nearly as strong. That gap is defensive; the Rags are allowing just 2.59 expected goals per 60 in that period to the Sens' 3.04.

Also in the past 30 days, Ottawa's Joonas Korpisalo has the sixth-worst goals saved above expectation (-4.70 GSAx) in the league, and New York's Jonathan Quick (-1.42) has been a bit much fortunate. The goaltending edge also lies with New York.

This line for Chris Kreider to score stood out when expecting some offense from the Rangers. Kreider has just 4 goals on 46 shots in January, and that low shooting percentage for one of the league's best snipers won't continue.

numberFire would peg the Rangers at -177 to win and Kreider at +108 to score, so these odds are both extreme value in Canada's capital this evening.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets

Jets ML (-132)
Nikolaj Ehlers to Record a Point (-138)

The Toronto Maple Leafs bested the Winnipeg Jets, 1-0, in overtime earlier this week on Wednesday. Expect revenge in Winnipeg's home building this evening.

Winnipeg has quietly been one of the best teams in the NHL recently, posting the league's third-best xGF% (56.1%) in the past month. It's not often that Toronto (54.2 xGF%) will find themselves on the wrong end of the skating battle.

Connor Hellebuyck also didn't start Wednesday's tilt -- not to say that Laurent Brossoit did poorly stopping every regulation shot. Still, Hellebuyck is fourth in GSAx (10.42) over the past month of play. He's a significant advantage over Toronto's Ilya Samsonov (-0.81 GSAx in the same period).

With home ice, equal rest, and advantages in all areas, numberFire expects the Jets to prevail 69.0% of the time tonight.

To do so, they'll need goals, and Nikolaj Ehlers is certainly a candidate to help accrue them. Ehlers has just 2 points in his last 5 games, which is well off his pace of 35 points in 46 contests this season. That's even despite eclipsing his season-long TOI average (16:25) in all but one of them.

The Jets' shuffling lines due to injuries can make targeting props a bit confusing, but Ehlers is projected for 1.14 points by nF's model today at a median. He'd need a projection of 0.60 to show value at this number, so nearly double is a steal.

Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes

Coyotes +1.5 (-120)

Can goaltending keep this game within a marker? I -- and numberFire's model -- certainly believe so.

The Carolina Hurricanes are a Stanley Cup favorite skating like it recently, posting a 56.2 xGF% in the past 30 days. That's a frightening team to fade on their home ice -- especially with an Arizona Coyotes team that's not even in the same ballpark (45.1 xGF%) in the same period.

However, the Yotes are 25-22 against the spread (ATS) for a reason. That reason is Connor Ingram continuing to stand on his head. He's posted 6.86 GSAx in the past month. Carolina, plagued by goalie issues all season, will counter with Antti Raanta, whose GSAx is lacking (0.76 GSAx) in comparison.

On the back of Ingram, numberFire expects Arizona to keep this game within a score 70.1% of the time, which is the singular best bet in the model today.

New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning

Over 6.5 (-122)
Brayden Point to Record an Assist (-128)

As mentioned in today's DFS helper, goals should fly in Tampa this evening.

The New Jersey Devils and Tampa Bay Lightning are top-15 offenses (in terms of expected goals) in the past 30 days, and they should meet minimal resistance in goal this evening. Vitek Vanecek's nightmare season hasn't exactly turned around with -3.02 GSAx in the past 30 days, and Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn't shaken off the rust from not having a preseason all year. He's posted -1.20 GSAx in the same period.

Given public tendencies to bet overs out of value range, it's pretty rare to see numberFire's model digging an over, but it does here. It's expecting at least seven goals 60.0% of the time.

Targeting the weaker netminder, this line for Brayden Point stood out as the Bolts' top line continues to cook. Point has record an assist in three straight games, bringing his total to an absurd 7 in 11 January tilts. The pass-first pivot has a 59.2% assist rate this season, as well.

nF would set Point's line for an apple at -285 given a median projection of 0.74, so even this modest amount of juice is still showing plenty of value in a game where we're expecting fireworks.

Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild

Ducks +1.5 (-140)

The coverin' Anaheim Ducks managed another point on Thursday, squeaking out a 4-3 overtime loss in Dallas. There's an obvious path that they find a way to a one-goal margin today.

That path is Filip Gustavsson, who has been entirely unable to rekindle his postseason spark for the Minnesota Wild this season. Even I expected Gus to shake off the rust at some point, but he's posted a league-worst -6.84 GSAx in the past 30 days.

Therefore, while I'd love Lukas Dostal (2.24 GSAx in the past month) to get a surprise nod, veteran John Gibson (1.46) will also represent a key advantage in goal for the Ducks.

The skaters in this matchup also aren't as split as you'd think. In the past 30 days, Minnesota (46.9 xGF%) isn't far ahead of Anaheim (41.9%).

numberFire expects Anaheim to hang within a marker 67.1% of the time in this one, and I'm equally perplexed why this matchup of cellar-dwellars has such an expensive puckline in the home side's direction.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks

Canucks -1.5 (-118)
Brock Boeser Anytime Goal (+135)

The Calgary Flames are 3-10-1 in January, so it wasn't overly surprising to see the Columbus Blue Jackets topple them on Thursday. Columbus is moving up in competition tonight, though.

Many expected the Vancouver Canucks to fade, but they've actually gotten stronger (from a peripheral stat perspective) as the season has progressed. Vancouver has a 54.1 xGF% in the past 30 days (eighth-best in hockey), so even the improved Blue Jackets (48.3 xGF%) are likely significantly outmatched in British Columbia on Saturday.

However, it gets worse as we move to the goaltending. Vancouver's Thatcher Demko is in the Vezina Trophy race and hasn't faltered with 5.00 GSAx in the past month, and the Jackets' goaltending situation is arguably the worst in the league. Both Elvis Merzlikins (-3.67 GSAx) and Daniil Tarasov (-4.90 GSAx) have been bottom-10 goaltenders in the past 30 days.

There might be a tinge of value on a dominant win from the 'Nucks as a result. numberFire expects them to cover 58.8% of the time.

nF is also keen on Vancouver's top scorer, Brock Boeser. Boeser enters this matchup at the right time; he leads Vancouver in goals (27) despite failing to score in six straight games. He's posted 13 shots in this stretch.

Boeser is actually leads all Saturday skaters in projected goals (0.70), which is a mark that would show value at -230 odds. The plus coin behind Brock ending his scoring drought against Columbus' awful tandem seems incredibly sweet.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.