NFL Win Total Betting: Will the 49ers Notch a Dozen Victories?

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
NFL Win Total Betting: Will the 49ers Notch a Dozen Victories?

After losing a second Super Bowl in five years, the San Francisco 49ers are ready to climb the mountain again.

Of course, prior to any playoff plans, San Francisco will first need to get through the regular season. With the schedules officially set, the 49ers now face the tallest win total at FanDuel Sportsbook: 11.5 games (+116/-142).

Fortunately for the NFL franchise in Northern California, most of the significant on-field contributors are back in 2024. Unlike like last year, quarterback Brock Purdy will undergo a healthy offseason program.

If there's an elephant in San Francisco's room right now, it pertains to wideout Brandon Aiyuk. He's the first Niner receiver to string together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons since Anquan Boldin (2013-14). Still, Aiyuk and the team have yet to agree on an extension, and the former Arizona State Sun Devils star has since missed the start of mandatory minicamp.

Let's dive into FanDuel's NFL win totals and discuss the reasons why San Francisco could go over or under their projected win total in 2024.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and they may change after the article is published.

San Francisco 49ers 2024 Win Total Odds

San Francisco 49ers Over/Under 11.5 Wins

  • Over: +116
  • Under: -142

Odds to Make the Playoffs: -420
Odds to Win the NFC West: -195
Odds to Win the NFC: +290
Super Bowl Odds: +600 (Tied-best)

Key Offseason Coaching Changes:

  • Nick Sorensen at Defensive Coordinator for Steve Wilks
  • Brandon Staley at Assistant Head Coach for Anthony Lynn

Why 49ers Could Win Over 11.5 Games

  • Copious talent in the starting lineups
  • Thorough experience
  • A division in flux

When looking at the 49ers' starting 11 on both sides of the football, there really is no denying, San Francisco is loaded.

With Purdy pulling strings, the offense consists of Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Kyle Juszczyk and 2023 AP OPOY Christian McCaffrey -- good luck drawing up coverages against that group. As a new addition, recent first-round selection Ricky Pearsall (from the Florida Gators) is also a top-tier athlete.

On defense, the Niners are powered by fellow All-Pros Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, both of which were graded within the top-three of their position in 2023, per Pro Football Focus. Additionally, dynamic safety Talanoa Hufanga is returning from injury.

To compound both continuity and experience, the current 49er group has been together for a while now. When looking at head coach Kyle Shanahan, he is approaching his eighth campaign at post. In each of those years, a different player has led San Francisco in AV (approximate value).

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the divisional betting market shows the Niners with -195 odds to win the NFC West. Across the conference, that is the shortest listing for any team.

San Francisco's division consists of the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Of that group, numberFire ranks the 49ers 15 spots ahead of the next closest team. S.F. was 5-1 against divisional foes in 2023, so look for them to dominate the NFC West again in 2024.

Why 49ers Could Win Under 11.5 Games

  • A demanding win total
  • The dreaded Super Bowl hangover
  • Injuries

Immediately, 11.5 games should draw your attention as the (tied) largest NFL win total at FanDuel Sportsbook. For San Francisco, the under is juiced to -142 odds, which indicates a 58.7% implied probability.

Heading into 2024, it would be wise to remember that the Niners recently lost the Super Bowl in overtime. Seemingly, that could set up for a nasty big-game hangover.

We've seen the phenomenon before as it is extremely taxing on the human body to play 20 football games in a single campaign. Notably, 49ers linebacker Dre Greenlaw went down in the second quarter of Super Bowl LVIII with an Achilles injury. Additionally, Kittle also underwent surgery this offseason, addressing a core muscle issue.

If San Francisco commences 2024 in sluggish fashion, I don't think anyone should be surprised. Keep in mind -- McCaffrey is coming off an OPOY campaign wherein he logged the most total touches (417) of his career.

As a looming risk for any gridiron football franchise, the Niners will look to avoid prominent injuries.

Missing the right player at the wrong time is something S.F. has experience with. The team was shell shocked after Purdy was knocked out of the 2023 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia. Also, prior to Purdy's arrival, we saw the 49ers sputter just about every time quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo missed time with injury.

Circling back, San Francisco has yet to strike a contract extension with Aiyuk as the All-Pro was absent at mandatory minicamp in Santa Clara. It feels like the Niners have dealt with veteran hold outs in each of the past few seasons (Bosa and Samuel), but that is also testament to the organization's ability to draft.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.