NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Steelers at Bills

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills both looked unlikely to make the playoffs at certain points of the season. Football can be a funny game because after rattling off a few wins in a row, these teams will face each other on Sunday at 1:00 P.M. EST in Buffalo.

The Steelers had three different starting quarterbacks this season and finally appeared to have found their man with Mason Rudolph. They finished with a 10-7 record after winning their last three games with Rudolph at QB.

The Bills looked broken at one point of the season. They fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after things started to sputter. Since they made the change to Joe Brady at OC, they've gone 6-1.

So, how can we attack this game from a betting perspective?

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Buffalo -10 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Pittsburgh +420
• Buffalo - 560

Total: 36.5

Steelers-Bills Best Bets

Bills -10 (-110)

The Mason Rudolph train will come screeching to a halt in this one.

Rudolph has performed like one of the best QBs in the league over the past three games. He had a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of 13.4% --well ahead of Lamar Jackson's 7.9 % in second place. Back when Rudolph started the majority of the games for the Steelers in 2019, his CPOE was just 0.2%, according to NextGenStats.

Buffalo beat three playoff teams during their five-game winning streak -- including a 31-10 beat down of the Dallas Cowboys. They've soared to fourth in numberFire's power rankings while Pittsburgh is down in 13th.

The Bills had a ton of injuries on defense but still finished as numberFire's seventh-best schedule-adjusted defense. They were also seventh against the pass, which doesn't bode well for Mason Rudolph.

A huge blow to the Steelers' chances is the injury to T.J. Watt. He will miss this game at least -- and potentially more if Pittsburgh pulls off the upset. Last season, the Steelers went 8-2 with Watt playing and 1-7 when he didn't. That stat isn't a perfect way to analyze a player's impact, but it's clear that Watt is a difference-maker.

I don't believe the Steelers can keep things close against the Bills on the road without arguably their most important player, so I'll lay the 10 points and take Buffalo.

Over 36.5 (-110)

This game has comfortably the lowest total on Wild Card Weekend, and perhaps, that should be the case. However, it still should exceed this low total.

The Bills' offense still isn't exactly humming along, but they have scored at least 20 points in eight straight games. That's despite turning just 46% of their red zone trips into touchdowns in the last three games.

The Steelers have been much more willing to get their better players involved after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired Week 12. They've gotten Jaylen Warren more involved; he's led the team in RB snaps in this time period. That's not to say that Najee Harris has been bad during this run at all. The mix and different styles of running has made both more efficient.

Pittsburgh's best chance for success would be on the ground, so it's good that these two have been playing well lately. Buffalo ranked just 18th in numberFire's rush defense metric on the season.

Buffalo had the third-ranked offense, and it was successful both on the ground and through the air. They were ranked sixth in passing offense and second in rushing offense, per nF.

The model on numberFire absolutely loves the over in this game. It gives this game nearly a 75% chance of exceeding 36.5 points. That makes this bet the rare five-star play, according to the model.

The over definitely makes sense, so we can play it, sit back, and root for some points to be scored.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.